Quote from TatisJr on February 21, 2020, 4:29 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 21, 2020, 10:11 am

Nice

Thank you for the insight as I had no idea that personal attacks were okay here on this forum. The only problem with responding to personal attacks is that you have to get down in the mud with pigs and two things are certain.....you get dirty and the pigs like it....I prefer to stay out of the mud and I don't care for pigs.

It's also good to know that unless a posted opinion doesn't fit into your narrative as to what is right or wrong it's considered a rant and therefore a target of opportunity by a uneducated, uninformed person with self esteem issues.....just glad to know who some of the players are

Carry on but let me go get some popcorn

This is pretty rich coming from the guy who frequently accuses/ask posters if they are high when they post. I mean 2 of your last 5 post you accuse posters of being on drugs because they disagree with you. You are the guy who writes posts towards Henry saying “thank god you don’t make the trades” without giving any insight on his proposed deal, but yeah I’m the bully because I called you on your BS story. Anytime posters use commonly used modern stats you attack them for using “made up stats”.  If you want to dish it out, don’t cry victim when you get fact-checked. If all that comes from this little spat is Madfriars doesn’t have to hear your factually false story about agents making up WAR, I’ll consider this worth it.

Quote from TatisJr on February 21, 2020, 5:02 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 6:27 am

Quote from TatisJr on February 20, 2020, 4:56 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 20, 2020, 12:52 pm

C'mon bro, no need to say "using facts is difficult for you." This is a fan forum, just relax. Yes 3finger can rant sometimes and be dismissive but all I know is I learn something from each and everyone of you on here.

And some of his and your points are valid. Stats express a metric. Obviously they do not determine the future and they are obviously limited as to the parameters of that metric. There are sound arguments regarding the applicability of WAR and the actual marginal gain associated with swaps of players having various associated WAR production.

I know you’re fairly new to this forum, but 3finger has had this same rant about WAR for a very long time and he repeats it OFTEN. I have my own specific issues with WAR calculation and I’ve pointed them out on here before. He clearly doesn’t understand WAR so he just makes up this little story about agents creating the stat when the opposite is true. Agents hated when stats like WAR started getting used by FO. It just a fact. He always uses this rant to dismiss any poster who uses WAR when talking about a player. It’s gotten a little old. Sorry for pointing out that his rant was filled with BS.

1. I conceded that he can rant and be dismissive. That does not mean he doesnt understand WAR. That is your assessment and your opinion. Further, his "little story" may or may not be related to his understanding of WAR and certainly does not establish his understanding.

2. It is not a "fact" one way or the other way that agents liked or disliked WAR. You are referring to a diverse subset that cannot be blanketly characterized. Some agents may have hated it, others surely loved it when it positively benefitted their clients.

3. You assert that his rant is BS but your rant includes certain assumptions and is conclusory.

4. Yes you have been on this board for more time than me. Apparently, it looks like eight months more than me. Nevertheless, I have seen 3finger discuss WAR more than a few times.

Again arguments regarding WAR and its applicability are fair game, especially in a trade thread. I also agree that commentary that is creative and novel is certainly more additive than running out past, dismissive positions.

Show me a post of 3finger where he points to a specific flaw with WAR calculation. He hasn’t. He always regurgitates his same old  “it’s a fake stat made up by agents”. Guess what? The stat wasn’t made up by agents. It was created by Baseball Prospectus. If it’s “fake” or “made up” why does every FO in baseball use it? Coming to a Padres fan forum in 2020 and mocking fans for using WAR when discussing hypothetical baseball trades seems a little bizarre to me. Maybe the guy is on drugs? I guess continually accusing posters of being on drugs is acceptable here, but me pointing out a false story is an attack?

LOL I’ve been a madfriars poster since just before Sean Burroughs was called up. I remember debating Burroughs for Freddy Garcia rumors. My name changed a few times over the years. Lost passwords and charger related user names etc. I’ve debated Fenn, Mr. P and others on here for a long time. They have been right and I have been wrong many times. I have no problem being wrong, but lazy, repeated, factually inaccurate posting gets old.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 21, 2020, 5:27 pm

Let’s stick to Trade Ideas guys Ok?

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 21, 2020, 5:38 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 21, 2020, 1:33 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 21, 2020, 12:59 pm

There IS a risk to holding Myers into this season.  Basically gambling 10's of MM on how his first half goes:

1. "Good" Wil:  Might be hot trade commodity at deadline IF Padres do the smart thing and absorb most of his remaining 2020 salary in exchange for new team taking most (all?) of 21-22 $$.  If Pads don't trade him now, with both MLB near ready SP and OF percolating in system, I fully expect the "Myers with MLB SP" talks to start up again... a prospect in deal won't be as important then.    Of course, a minor "good to have" problem would be:  "Why should we trade him if he's playing well".  That might end up having more to do with how the guys in AAA/AA are doing, and of course, where we are in the playoff race.

2.  "Bad" Wil:  This would be pretty bad.  He would be essentially untradeable at deadline, but couldn't remove him from roster.  Really would have no choice but to just keep playing him, hope he turns it around in 2nd 1/2, and revisit the entire issue yet again in the offseason.  If he has a career worst year, we are stuck with him on 26-man even if we bench him.  That could easily be the very large 'straw' that gets Preller fired.

Yeah that's the downside.

If he continues to not hit he becomes a $20mil a season backup 1b/OF that we'd be stuck with.

But I can't see how he won't at least match what he did last year(which wasn't good but) while his contract gets shorter and shorter.

 

 

Good point.   There is a risk, but the odds of his value "holding" or improving are probably > odds of his value declining while "burning" some of the contract.

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 6:15 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

Obviously the history would prevent that probably idk. But I would offer as high as a four for one with a mix of ML and top 15 prospects. I just see his floor being 270 20/20 and ceiling near 300 with 25hr. Offers a bit of the Tatis flash, not to that level and probably a lower ceiling to be sure, but with consistency and a clutch gene.

I offer as high as Q/L + Grisham + Weathers/Bolanos/Lawson + Naylor / Olivares

Quote from Commie on February 21, 2020, 6:33 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 6:15 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

Obviously the history would prevent that probably idk. But I would offer as high as a four for one with a mix of ML and top 15 prospects. I just see his floor being 270 20/20 and ceiling near 300 with 25hr. Offers a bit of the Tatis flash, not to that level and probably a lower ceiling to be sure, but with consistency and a clutch gene.

I offer as high as Q/L + Grisham + Weathers/Bolanos/Lawson + Naylor / Olivares

I love Senzel, but I think one of the SP mentioned + any OF not named Pham + either one of the young relievers ticketed for AAA or a lower level prospect with flaws but upside like Marcano gets it done. Prospects are valuable these days.

If the above were the parameters of the deal and you were CIN, who would you pick?

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 21, 2020, 6:46 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

Man... I am high on Trammell ( have him #2 > Patino #3; both top 25-50)... but I have to agree I would do that.  Would probably even throw in a 40-man RP like Bednar or Perdomo too...  but it might take even more prospect wise?

Senzel was top 10 prospect.  That value increases dramatically beyond top 30 range of Trammell (or Urias previously).  Even though he's way less proven than Lindor or Bryant, could argue his value is same or even higher due to long cheap control.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on February 21, 2020, 6:49 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

 

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 6:15 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

Obviously the history would prevent that probably idk. But I would offer as high as a four for one with a mix of ML and top 15 prospects. I just see his floor being 270 20/20 and ceiling near 300 with 25hr. Offers a bit of the Tatis flash, not to that level and probably a lower ceiling to be sure, but with consistency and a clutch gene.

I offer as high as Q/L + Grisham + Weathers/Bolanos/Lawson + Naylor / Olivares

I don't think the Reds needs fit what we have. First off, they already have a million OF, but only 1 is a sure thing and that is Senzel. As for your first trade idea, we got Taylor Trammell from them. If they were willing to trade him they didn't think they needed him, and they sure don't now. Their rotation is better than ours, and they have some high quality pitching prospects as well. What they need is a high quality SS and a C who can hit. They already have a C who cannot hit but plays great defense, so they will not want Hedges. They will want players like Mejia, Campusano and Abrams. I am sure they would demand at least 1 of those 3 along with other propects. I do not think Senzel is worth it.

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 7:01 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on February 21, 2020, 6:49 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

 

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 6:15 pm

Quote from onlypads on February 21, 2020, 4:12 pm

Excluding Myers, I wonder if Quantrill and Trammell are enough for Senzel. I pull that trigger instantly.

Obviously the history would prevent that probably idk. But I would offer as high as a four for one with a mix of ML and top 15 prospects. I just see his floor being 270 20/20 and ceiling near 300 with 25hr. Offers a bit of the Tatis flash, not to that level and probably a lower ceiling to be sure, but with consistency and a clutch gene.

I offer as high as Q/L + Grisham + Weathers/Bolanos/Lawson + Naylor / Olivares

I don't think the Reds needs fit what we have. First off, they already have a million OF, but only 1 is a sure thing and that is Senzel. As for your first trade idea, we got Taylor Trammell from them. If they were willing to trade him they didn't think they needed him, and they sure don't now. Their rotation is better than ours, and they have some high quality pitching prospects as well. What they need is a high quality SS and a C who can hit. They already have a C who cannot hit but plays great defense, so they will not want Hedges. They will want players like Mejia, Campusano and Abrams. I am sure they would demand at least 1 of those 3 along with other propects. I do not think Senzel is worth it.

The sad reality haha. If we are thinking the window next 2 to 4 years and the move for Senzel is in that vein I cannot give up Mejia at this time.

I think I look to headline a deal with Abrams and Torrens among others.