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Trade ideas

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 13, 2020, 12:10 pm

Grisham/Myers platoon in CF and Myers/Cordero platoon in RF?

Keep Myers and Cordero out of CF in places with cavernous outfields like Coors.

Hope we can trade Myers at the deadline or next off season and that Cordero shows he can stay healthy and Trammell shows he can hit.

The issue is if Myers rebounds and builds enough value that another team would not only want him but want him as an "upgrade" would mean he's performing well enough that "we" may need him.

I mean.....once the season starts forget the money....its about producing and winning games.

 

 

Mr. Padre19 I am just wondering, why do you seem dead-set against Cordero playing CF for us? He is far and away our fastest current OF.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 13, 2020, 11:02 am

If Quantrill doesn't make the rotation IMO he needs to be in AA proving his worth.

We can't put him in AAA to get rocked and lose any/all his trade value.

Right now he "is" #6 as you said....which is very important because of risk of injury,but soon Gore/Patino will be ready and guys like Bolanos/Baez/Morejon could also surpass him on the depth chart.

But putting him in the Pen will lose trade value and AAA would probably destroy it.

 

I'm wondering which pitchers "do" get placed in EP.....

I think Quantrill should start the year in AAA if he doesn't win the #5 spot in ST. I am not worried. He will spend at least half of the year in mlb. Injuries always happen.

I am sure Gore will be up before the end of the year, but I don't think he will spend more than a month or so in mlb. I wouldn't count on any of the others surpassing Quantrill. Morejon has how many innings last year that he needs to build on? Baez has never proven himself as a starter and needs at least 1 full year of success before he can be trusted. Bolanos was a second level prospect who has worked his way up but is still nowhere near the level of Quantrill. He is our emergency #8 starter. Quantrill has had half a season and has shown the ability to dominate. I expect him to improve and seize a permanent rotation spot at some point next year.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2020, 11:18 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 13, 2020, 11:02 am

If Quantrill doesn't make the rotation IMO he needs to be in AA proving his worth.

We can't put him in AAA to get rocked and lose any/all his trade value.

Right now he "is" #6 as you said....which is very important because of risk of injury,but soon Gore/Patino will be ready and guys like Bolanos/Baez/Morejon could also surpass him on the depth chart.

But putting him in the Pen will lose trade value and AAA would probably destroy it.

 

I'm wondering which pitchers "do" get placed in EP.....

Not sure that a 25 year old that spent 1/2 of 2019 as a ML SP will build much value pitching in AA even IF effective. Definitely AAA would be a disaster.

Sort of to the point ... 1. He gets the #5 SP (Lucchesi gets dealt), 2. He sticks as the long RP / spot starter and first in due to injury in #1-5, or 3. Trade him for the best deal out there and move on.

To me he will be passed by the others in the queue during 2020 so no real value of having in the minors just not to make the team in 2021.

Yeah, this is the challenge with both/either Lucchesi & Quantrill... their value to Padres NOW is much higher than it projects to be in future (like poster boy for this Eric Lauer was last year; "untouchable" then b/c he & Joey were like the anchors of the rotation).  Really can argue pretty strongly that we "need" them both NOW, because ON OPENING DAY the dropoff after them looks pretty significant.  ALL of Gore, Patino, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos, & Lawson need more development time.  One stubbed toe or dead arm by someone makes the 6th SP essential.

But when those guys on the doorstep begin to arrive... what do you do with Joey & Q then?  How do they not lose trade value if pushed down to the point of being out of a rotation?  Q's pedigree & dominant flashes suggests he could reach Jason's upside & stick even among the "best 5" 2 years from now.  Harder to see it with Joey.

Now Paxton, Clevenger hurt... If Padres come out of ST healthy in SP & depending how guys do, not impossible we leverage another team's need in trade; but think it's less likely we trade FOR a need, because those matches have dwindled as teams shape their roster...

Quote from JasonE135 on February 13, 2020, 3:18 pm
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 13, 2020, 12:10 pm

Grisham/Myers platoon in CF and Myers/Cordero platoon in RF?

Keep Myers and Cordero out of CF in places with cavernous outfields like Coors.

Hope we can trade Myers at the deadline or next off season and that Cordero shows he can stay healthy and Trammell shows he can hit.

The issue is if Myers rebounds and builds enough value that another team would not only want him but want him as an "upgrade" would mean he's performing well enough that "we" may need him.

I mean.....once the season starts forget the money....its about producing and winning games.

 

 

Mr. Padre19 I am just wondering, why do you seem dead-set against Cordero playing CF for us? He is far and away our fastest current OF.

Oh I’m not actually.

Ive been an advocate for him for some time.

But,AJ went and got Grisham for CF and is on record to say that Myers will compete for time out there.

If Grisham is the LH CF option that kind of leaves Cordero out.

Of course Spring Training could change everything.

Plus against RH pitching I’d like to see Grisham and Cordero both in the OF.......and if Grisham is in Center that leaves RF for Cordero.

Lastly.....there is more to playing a good CF than speed.

All I  are about is Cordero staying healthy and making the 26 man.....at that point if he hits he will play.

Somewhere.....

 

 

 

The people advocating for Gore to start the season in SD like to use Paddack last year as a reason for why it would happen.  However, our rotation was so bad last year that there was not much of an excuse to keep Paddack down (Margavicious was a starter...).  If you think Lamet and Richards are going to make 30+ starts you are fooling yourself.  Even if Quantril has a 4.5 ERA in El Paso, he will still be the next man up, and probably spend half a year in SD.

I would disagree that there is a huge decline after Quantril.  Baez and Morejon were both at one point top 50 prospects.  They would be fine with a bit more time in the minors, but Baez in particular showed he can stay in the majors.  Bolanos pitched reasonably well last year, Nix spent most of last year injured but had 42 IP in SD in 2018, Miguel Diaz was resigned, and guys like Perdomo/Strahm can start if the need arises.  Thats 13 deep without getting into guys like Gore, Patino, or Lawson.  Some might not pan out, others will rise and become the cream of the crop, but we have a plethora of options.

Even if you do not think they are ready yet... our bullpen should be good enough that five innings and the pen takes it the rest of the way.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 14, 2020, 8:56 am

 

Oh I’m not actually.

Ive been an advocate for him for some time.

But,AJ went and got Grisham for CF and is on record to say that Myers will compete for time out there.

If Grisham is the LH CF option that kind of leaves Cordero out.

All I  are about is Cordero staying healthy and making the 26 man.....at that point if he hits he will play.

Somewhere.....

Cordero hasnt been healthy for two years, and even then was a flash in the pan (no established track record of big league success).  I like Franchy but there is no way I can count on him to do anything this season.  If he can its a pleasant surprise.  So when AJ says Grisham and Myers will get time in CF, its more along the lines of "If Cordero is hurt..."

The other part of it, is I think AJ will do everything he can to make sure Myers plays everyday.  Be it RF/CF/1B.  If Myers can get CLOSE to the level that he hit a few years ago then AJ looks better.  He might still try to trade him for nothing, but at least it is no longer a negative contract.  So if Myers and Pham take up two spots, that leaves one for Grisham, Naylor, Cordero

At this point CF is probably the biggest roll the dice position going into ST.

1. Grisham has the defensive rep for jumps / range ... but he is a guy that I still have to see him prove his ML chops ... poor MiL prior to last year where he exploded but in his ML time (especially away from Miller Park) he was not ML quality ... no idea of the ML Grisham in 2020 (especially to start the season). At least in his MiL time he hit LHP reasonably well.

2. Cordero is fast but not the reputation of good defensively ... no history of hitting LHP ... major injury concern ... and limited (albeit very good) success at the ML level vs RHP ... oh yea, major K%. No idea of the ML Cordero in 2020 (especially to start the season).

3. Lagares ... aging and declining defensively ... never could hit LHP or RHP ... non-roster ... can’t see him any more than “in case of emergency” bench player.

4. Naylor (no not in CF) could just be the best hitter of the options vs. both RHP and LHP but he would have to play RF (badly) and push Myers to play CF (badly).

Whew! Padres need to get lucky on one taking that step forward OR do some work on finding a CF but at this point ... slim pickings out there.

Odds are the START the season with some combo of Grisham (they did just trade for him) and Cordero ... but that will only last so long IF the both struggle ... and a fair chance they do. So,

1. Bit of a long shot, but an early arrival of Trammell and / or Olivares might be needed even if premature.

2. A bit of a “wild card” idea ... Profar goes to CF (I think he knows were that is but would not be pretty) and 2B gets handled by some combo of Garcia, France, and Cronenworth.

Going to be interesting.

The gyrations can be distilled down to:  Tommy Pham will play "every day" (with pressure on J.T. to rest him adequately to make it through the year).   Wil Myers will play most every day.   So there is 1 full time OF spot open in CF.  That is not Naylor.

It's really "between" Grisham & Cordero.  Grisham is the HEAVY favorite.  Whoever loses that ST battle IMO is HIGHLY likely to be in AAA b/c their skill set would be pretty similar to the guy who just won, and there would not be a lot of playing time available if the 5th OF is a RH CF capable guy ("Lagares").  Naylor might be a better fit as the 4th OF/PH bench bat getting some corner OF starts vs RHP in that scenario. Obviously a totally different scenario if Myers not here...

I strongly believe a guy who has missed essentially 2 full seasons of pro ball & was raw especially as an OF in general, let alone CF, NEEDS TO PLAY DAILY to develop into whatever he can become despite his shortcomings.  It seems unrealistic to expect him to step in to the starting CF role, even as a platoon guy given the last 2 years.  Whether he hits .200, .300, or .400 in 50-60 ST AB isn't going to change that.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 15, 2020, 10:05 am

The gyrations can be distilled down to:  Tommy Pham will play "every day" (with pressure on J.T. to rest him adequately to make it through the year).   Wil Myers will play most every day.   So there is 1 full time OF spot open in CF.  That is not Naylor.

It's really "between" Grisham & Cordero.  Grisham is the HEAVY favorite.  Whoever loses that ST battle IMO is HIGHLY likely to be in AAA b/c their skill set would be pretty similar to the guy who just won, and there would not be a lot of playing time available if the 5th OF is a RH CF capable guy ("Lagares").  Naylor might be a better fit as the 4th OF/PH bench bat getting some corner OF starts vs RHP in that scenario. Obviously a totally different scenario if Myers not here...

I strongly believe a guy who has missed essentially 2 full seasons of pro ball & was raw especially as an OF in general, let alone CF, NEEDS TO PLAY DAILY to develop into whatever he can become despite his shortcomings.  It seems unrealistic to expect him to step in to the starting CF role, even as a platoon guy given the last 2 years.  Whether he hits .200, .300, or .400 in 50-60 ST AB isn't going to change that.

Agree with Brian, Cordero probably needs to hone his command of the strike zone to reduce K rate and improve his approach against LHP.  I kind of think Naylor should play every day though -- whether to build trade value as 1B or to actually develop into a RF.  He probably is a best fit as the 4th OF on the ML team but has the potential to give more value to to the team with additional development IMO (a now or later cost benefit analysis). Remember he has a pretty good arm, so if he really did improve his reads and first step in Winter and shed weight, maybe there is something to him being the RF of the future.

I wonder if Cronenworth could play OF this year (athletic and has a strong arm as a RP and SS)...

That being said, I think our primary four ML OFers should consist of: (1) Pham; (2) Grisham; (3) Myers; and (4) Trammel / Olivares (in agreement with Fenn that an early call up, albeit a bit premature, may be our best option).  I think Olivares should be the primary option given his success in the high minors.  Trammell needs to show he can handle pitching in the high minors or at minimum crushes ST pitching. I wouldn't mind him building a bit more arm strength as his body continues to develop.

This brings me to my conclusion, it was not my preference to complete the Margot trade prior to ST.  I would rather have pursued that option at the trade deadline and after giving additional developmental time to our 3/4 OFer of the future. Obviously I may change my tune if Pagan delivers lol.

Someone to keep in mind -- JORGE SOLER.. WAR in 2019 > Bryant's-- finished 21st in MVP .. sure his fielding is Naylor/Reyes like-- BUT his offensive game is the step child of Pham/Reyes-- High OBP/POWER combo... DH mostly in 19.. but played 56 in RF, and for his career he mostly has played in the OF--- If Wil is not cutting it, or we simply want to improve our lineup down the stretch-- a name to look for, and should not be a $$ problem ($4 mil in 2020, $7 mil 2021) so if we get him in July only $2mil or so for 2020... Hits lefties and righties well so no negative splits..

 

I dont know what a package for him looks like atm (or in July) but I would imagine something like Ona + Q gets it done--