Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 8:00 pm

In this kind of deal ... would expect the Padres go with their current better RP and just put Shaw and Davis on waivers .. maybe McGee.

From a cash perspective ... over the 3 years pretty much a push with the Padres paying more early offset by Colo paying more later.

Could argue that Myers (3 years) vs. Desmond (2 years) is a push talent-wise.

Even if the Padres could pony the extra 2020 money (which I doubt) ... all they would accomplish is converting about $70MM spread over 3 years for Myers - Perdomo - Naylor and move it to 2 years for Desmond and 1 year of Davis, Shaw, and McGee who will provide no value and likely be released. Sort of converting an AAV of about $23MM to an AAV of about $35MM to get out of 2022 commitments.

Cash flow kills it from a Padres perspective and they probably prefer Myers over Desmond. Just stick with Myers for 2020 and then reevaluate.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2019, 8:27 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 31, 2019, 7:14 pm

I don’t see this trade being feasible or fitting in with AJ’s plan. First off, I don’t think that Perdomo and Naylor would be enough to get the Rockies to take on the additional years and money of Myers.

As far as money is concerned, its almost totally even. Desmond, Davis, Mcgee, and Shaw are owed a total of $65.5M including buyouts. Myers is owed $61M including his buyout. Perdomo and Naylor would take it up to $63M±. And if they dont want Naylor, could go with a Perdomo and Wingenter package. Giving COL two BP pieces for the three they are losing.

For COL it would be $30M in savings for 2020. Allowing them to keep Arenado or resign Story if they desire. In 2021, Myers only costs them $7M over the buyouts and Desmonds contract. In 2022, COL would see no savings over what they would owe to Myers.

For SD, it would be a big expenditure in 2020. An extra $28-30M in salary in 2020. But in 2021 SD saves $13M over the Myers salary, and in 2022, they would save $19M. And yes, there would need to be some bullpen configuration that would need to happen for 2020. Castillo has one more option that I can see, so that can make that work.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2019, 8:32 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on December 31, 2019, 7:14 pm

I think we should just wait on a Myers trade. We cannot spend his contract money this offseason. What we can do is wait. We have a lot of excess pieces that people here cannot wait to trade. Our best bet may be waiting for other teams to get desperate. A few months into the season there could be several teams who are competitive but short on starting pitching. At least one of Quantrill, Lucchesie, Baez, Morejon or Bolanos should be pitching well enough to appear ml-ready and make teams want them. Maybe even Davies. If they want to pick up an ml ready pitcher and don’t want to or have prospects to trade they may be willing to take on Myers money.

Its definitely an option to keep Myers and hope he bounces back. And your right, in 2020 there would be no extra money for anything. In the 2020 offseason though, after Davis, Shaw, and McGee are bought out, and the Kinlser and Oliveras money is off the books, and no Myers, we would have over $40M to spend on trades, FA signings, and for arb raises.

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2019, 8:40 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 31, 2019, 8:00 pm

In this kind of deal ... would expect the Padres go with their current better RP and just put Shaw and Davis on waivers .. maybe McGee.

From a cash perspective ... over the 3 years pretty much a push with the Padres paying more early offset by Colo paying more later.

Could argue that Myers (3 years) vs. Desmond (2 years) is a push talent-wise.

Even if the Padres could pony the extra 2020 money (which I doubt) ... all they would accomplish is converting about $70MM spread over 3 years for Myers - Perdomo - Naylor and move it to 2 years for Desmond and 1 year of Davis, Shaw, and McGee who will provide no value and likely be released. Sort of converting an AAV of about $23MM to an AAV of about $35MM to get out of 2022 commitments.

You would have to see/forecast what Davis, Shaw, and McGee could be when Coors is not there home park.

And yes, I get that the extra $30M for 2020 would be crazy, and difficult for SD to do. However, this could really free up cash flow/payroll space for the 2020 offseason when you yourself think we will be closer to contention. So does Fowler dislike Myers and Myers lack of performance enough to put his money where is mouth is??

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 31, 2019, 8:44 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 31, 2019, 7:42 pm

Yeah I don't see how paying $30 mil + players/specs to get rid of Myers is of any benefit UNLESS we have a specific UPGRADE coming back I mean $30 mil is basically all of 2020 and 1/2 of 2021 Myers... If we hold on to him for 2020 then he becomes a lot easier and cheaper to move next off-season with only 2/40 left.. At 2021 dewdline ($30 mil discussed here going on a trade) he would only be 1 1/2 /$30.. And if he has a "bounce back" 2.5-3 WAR. Type season ..season and 1/2.. We may actually get value out of him both on the field or by trading him... That Colorado trade does upgrade anything ..

Part of my original post was this move works if you dont think SD can really be WC team in 2020. This move sets up SD to be in a better payroll spot after the 2020 season, instead of after the 2022 season.

And yes, it is very possible, especially in COL that Myers all of a sudden could look really good. However, there is also a chance that pitching in SD could really change the value of one to all three of the RPs coming to SD. And then it would be possible to flip them at the trade deadline. And if both happens, then its a win/win situation.

And really, Perdomo, Naylor, or Wingenter are not going to be part of a SD championship run. So we are not really giving anything special up in the player portion. Just more clearing 40 man spots for the new ones coming in.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 31, 2019, 8:58 pm

I would love to have more money available next year and the year after. Love it! I just don’t think it is up to AJ, it is up to ownership. They set a financial limit. I doubt they would be willing to take on an additional $30 million this year to give us more money available next year. To them, it just means they have to spend an additional $30 million. They will not get it back next year.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 31, 2019, 9:20 pm

I forgot about Perdomo, Wingenter, and Barraclough. Obviously in your trade scenario he would be gone, but if he is not traded he will require a spot. He may have options left, I am not sure. Wingenter as well. I am sure Barraclough has a guaranteed contract as well. Maybe one of these guys can be our long man out of the bullpen. Whatever. What I am saying is that our bullpen is a lot more crowded than I thought it was.

Quote from fenn68 on January 1, 2020, 6:03 am

I guess I look the money situation differently ... this is just a cash flow issue not really making more money available over the next 3 years. If the Padres plan on $450MM (just an example) over 2020-22 ... nothing to suggest by moving money into 2020 will allow them to spend more in the later years. Revenue does not change.

Conversely, if the Padres wanted to commit more money in 2020 ... could have been more aggressive in the FA or trade market to get a legit upgrade for the next three years.

I know we look at payroll in single year silos ... but guarantee that ownership works off multi-year plans as a precursor to the annual budget.

Padres’ ownership already has committed an all time high amount of money for the 2020 payroll by a significant amount (and are in the upper have of projected ML payrolls) ... not sure they can do much more (revenue projection has not changed) but if they did ... more likely focus on a known upgrade for the future ... maybe starting in 2020 or next winter.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 1, 2020, 10:58 am

So with the Reds signing Shogo the word now is they will either move Nick Senzel to SS or trade him for other needs.

I would love a scenario where we get Senzel for 2b....he could be our guy for a long time.

Also they are in “win now” mode.

They need a starter for sure.

They need a true SS and their 1b is 36 years old....although they have Moustakas now.

Might cost a lot but would it have to include Patino?

 

 

 

Anyone think this is a good idea to add that last bat we really need or no?