Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2019, 4:09 pm

Took a look at Fangraphs defensive stats on the Padres OF candidates (2 years). For some not a lot of innings in the position but probably representative of the comparative performance.

So the best defensive unit would be Myers (LF) - Margot (CF) - Grisham (RF) ... guessing range factor is trumping arm in these cases. Consider with dWAR:

LF: Myers (-0.4); Grisham (-0.7); Naylor (-2.2); Cordero (-3.6); Pham (-6.0)

CF: Margot (+10.4); Grisham (+0.4); Pham (+0.4); Cordero (-1.3); Myers (-3.4)

RF: Grisham (+1.6); Myers (+0.6); Cordero (-2.0); Naylor (-4.1);

Of course hitting will factor ... and Pham will play LF (apparently badly) since he has not been a RF and had an elbow issue.

Grisham look like a defensive fit in three OF slots ... so IF he can hit is the question. Might get a lot of CF getting Margot’s bat out and keeping Myers’ bat in vs. RHP.

Bottom of the barrel defensively are Cordero and Naylor ... so both will have to hit a lot to get playing time ... maybe in AAA. Could we see Cronenworth (more versatility) be kept as the 26th man over them?

Quote from Commie on December 26, 2019, 5:37 pm

Funny (ha ha, not like a clown) part is Naylor probably has the second best arm in the bunch next to Margot.  Please note, despite posts that are positive on Naylor, I am not a "fan." I do not like the history and for some reason, seeing him play and in the dugout, I have concerns. That said, I think y'all are underrating his value on field offensively such that the D is acceptable in a defensive-sub-late kinda way.

Quote from JasonE135 on December 26, 2019, 6:59 pm

Quote from Cptjack on December 26, 2019, 3:04 pm

It's going to be tough for Myers to be our RFer when he didn't even have the arm for CF.

Myers has always had what has graded as a plus arm. I don’t see where the weak arm thing is coming from.

I can see that you, Fenn, are not optimistic about our outfield defense. I am not worried. Depending on what tool is used to grade it any outfield can grade both terrible and amazing at the same time. I saw an article over halfway through last year(I wish I still had the link) that had our outfield graded as the second best defensively  in baseball after Washington. Margot is great, Pham is below average and Myers is at least average if not above average. That comes out to an average to plus outfield.

Cordero, Myers, Naylor and Margot all have plus arms. Cordero and Myers both have more than enough arm and range for RF. Cordero actually has 70-80 speed. If he can work on his instincts he has the ability to be a gold Glover. He has that kind of physical talent. Of course he would have to spend some time on the field for that to happen.

Quote from fenn68 on December 26, 2019, 7:58 pm

My analysis was just comparative among the Padres’ options. Actually compared to the other teams ... defense is not that bad.

Not exactly the same comparison but for the idea:

#10 LF in 2018-19 is around a -0.3 dWAR .... so Myers or Grisham would be somewhere in the upper half of LF .. defensively.

Margot sits at about #10.

#10 RF is about -1.0 ... so Grisham / Cordero / Myers would be top 10 material.

Bundle that and the Padres would have a Top 10 OF defense likely. We will have to see about Pham.

So defense should not be bad ... and maybe that allows for opting for the better offensive option over the better defensive option while still maintaining quality defense vs. the ML comparisons.

Quote from TatisJr on December 26, 2019, 8:16 pm

OF defense shouldn’t be a concern next year. Pham is a good defender in LF. I wouldn’t want Pham in CF, but I think he’s solid defensively as a LF. Margot/Grisham in CF will be above average. If Myers is the RF he has the speed, arm and athleticism to be solid. It’s always a focus issue with Myers. Franchy and Naylor are poor defenders, but I think only one of the two makes the 26 man as a backup OF/LHH bat off the bench.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 27, 2019, 11:57 am

Post Xmas evaluation after Ryu-- "last good SP" & Kole Calhoun--damaging "comp" for Myers' value-- signings (see Offseason Thread); and assuming Pads are at or very close to final O.D. payroll...

Myers' standalone trade "value" may be only half of what I was hoping (5 MM AAV vs 10 MM).  At that level:

1)  Don't see how Pads can trade for any player > 10 MM salary, since can't "create" enough room to fit the new salary even by trading Myers.   Lindor just seems to be in the realm of fantasyland to me... wishful thinking b/c Indians are listening?  Even Starling Marte doesn't work:  Even if "just" trade Myers by himself separately, end up adding net 5-6 MM salary with Marte... plus still have to outbid anyone else for Marte.  Alternative is adding a SP or really good prospect with Myers in a trade out to "equal" Marte's salary going out... there's no way for Padres (with payroll limitations) to not "overpay" for Marte

2)  Pads should (& probably are) focus on trades where the incoming 2020 salary is in the 5 MM or less range; where the trade does not REQUIRE a salary dump i.e. Myers.   Clevinger, Merrifield, Nimmo

Someone had mentioned earlier Pads inserting as 3rd team on a Marte to Mets deal... makes sense:  As was reported before, Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo did come up in their discussions with the Pirates, Heyman tweets. However, the Pirates “may prefer prospects” to the soon-to-be 27-year-old Nimmo, who has arbitration eligibility for the next three seasons.

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 27, 2019, 1:43 pm

Pham is injured and if he was so good then why is he always getting traded ? I bet this guy plays less than 90 games

Naylor is Paul McNulty....terrible

Cordero is Ruben Rivera all over again

Should have kept a guy that had a great arm and hit 30 HR a year and with Andy Green no longer around to screw with this guys head........I hope he becomes an All-Star for Tampa Bay

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2019, 2:15 pm

Naylor will be a better hitter than he is getting credit for ... he just turned 22 and was “young for the league” at every step of his minor league career. Bad body ... yes, bad fielder ... yes but will hit in the ML. Even if the power does not become eye popping ... he still will hang around as a Pablo Sandoval type.

Now don’t see him fitting with the Padres ... but not because he will not hit.

In 2019 consider wRC+ AWAY / HOME for the Padre OF contenders:

Pham ................. 117 / 126 (Tropicana Field)

Naylor ............... 101 /   73 (PETCO)

Margot ..............   95 /   69 (PETCO)

Myers ................   86 / 108 (PETCO)

Grisham ............   69 / 126 (Miller Park)

So Naylor is the second best Padre option AWAY.

What should worry the Padres is the impact of PETCO on Pham and Grisham. Pham probably has his Home productivity drop (probably still over 100). Grisham’s 126 HOME was at an extreme hitter’s park ... so a poor 69 wRC+ AWAY could translate into a lower number in PETCO at that may be a ticket to AAA.

Cordero has proven nothing and has not stayed healthy.

Myers may turn out to be the best of the bunch at PETCO and second to Pham overall.

I have been on the Padres adding an impact OF beyond Pham all winter if they want to really aim at contending ... they have not ... no way to rely on Grisham - Cordero - Naylor to generate improvement over Pham - Margot - Myers.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2019, 2:39 pm

The idea of a 3 way deal with the Padres getting Nimmo for prospects to PITT and PITT sending Marte to the METS has some appeal ... at least in theory depending on the prospects.

Given Marte not having been dealt as of yet ... hard to guess what PITT is holding out for (but expect still quite high) and if prospects ... probably more that the METS have to offer. Not sure how anyone values Nimmo ... can hit (very high OBP) and “average” OF but has a worrisome injury history. Nimmo has longer control at a lower salary with ups his trade value.

Actually would prefer the Padres took the gamble on Nimmo for CF than Marte whose defense has really eroded over the past couple of seasons. Nimmo at the worst could be a good platoon with Margot.

IF the valuation is Marte > Nimmo ... Padres need to pay prospects worth Nimmo to PITT and the METS toss in the difference to PITT? Padres pay prospects worth Marte to PITT and the METS toss in the difference to SD? Workable ... but not “easy” with at this point PITT not being motivated.