Quote from JasonE135 on December 23, 2019, 12:30 am

The question is “When do we think we can truly compete?” If we are not within 2 years of actually winning a playoff series or 2 then there is no reason to trade for Marte. I wouldn’t personally give up any more than your Hedges + Hunt + Avila + Nix offer.

I think we are 2 years away still. It will take that long for Gore, Patino and Paddack to all be pitching up to their full abilities at the major league level. Then our starting staff will be ready. Our bullpen already is just about ready, and will be even better in 2 years when Munoz has more experience and all of the extras like Baez, Morejon, Quantrill and Bolanos can earn full time places. By then, we will be losing Pham and Marte(if we trade for him).

I see th next 2 years as transition years. Yes we should be able to compete, but what we should really doing is finding out who all of our amazing prospects truly are at the major league level.

Lets get to where we actually have a dominant rotation and bullpen. Let’s see where Trammell fits and who will be our permanent 2B and C. We should know that in the next year or two, but we don’t now. Then we can trade whatever prospects we have left for that final piece or two. Probably a big OF bat.

We are not 1 player away right now. In two years, we very well could/should be. Let’s not waste our specs(who we may very well need) for a player who will not get us where we want to go anyway.

Quote from onlypads on December 23, 2019, 3:51 am

Quote from JasonE135 on December 23, 2019, 12:30 am

The question is “When do we think we can truly compete?” If we are not within 2 years of actually winning a playoff series or 2 then there is no reason to trade for Marte. I wouldn’t personally give up any more than your Hedges + Hunt + Avila + Nix offer.

I think we are 2 years away still. It will take that long for Gore, Patino and Paddack to all be pitching up to their full abilities at the major league level. Then our starting staff will be ready. Our bullpen already is just about ready, and will be even better in 2 years when Munoz has more experience and all of the extras like Baez, Morejon, Quantrill and Bolanos can earn full time places. By then, we will be losing Pham and Marte(if we trade for him).

I see th next 2 years as transition years. Yes we should be able to compete, but what we should really doing is finding out who all of our amazing prospects truly are at the major league level.

Lets get to where we actually have a dominant rotation and bullpen. Let’s see where Trammell fits and who will be our permanent 2B and C. We should know that in the next year or two, but we don’t now. Then we can trade whatever prospects we have left for that final piece or two. Probably a big OF bat.

We are not 1 player away right now. In two years, we very well could/should be. Let’s not waste our specs(who we may very well need) for a player who will not get us where we want to go anyway.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with everything you said. We are still developing ML talent -- in fact, I think we are in a critical development stage.  Contrary to what has been said, the FO knows this e.g. the hiring of Jayce Tingler.

I don't mind Pham and I don't mind Marte to kind of lead our next wave of OF, but I really don't want to lose SPs that we think have substantial upside.  I think anyone (and probably at least one) of Weathers, Morejon, Cantillo, Bolanos, Lawson, Lucchesi, or Quantrill become a TOR SP and another one or two probably can develop into a MOR SP.  I really only want to trade those assets, when bundled, for a controllable piece like a Whit or near ML top prospect in a position of need.

My calculus changes a bit if we shed Myers (and have to lose a spec SP) and were to sign a Madbum / Ryu type (obviously last shot is Ryu) in a corresponding move, I could stomach that.  Even better, if we sign Ryu, then trade for Marte.  We would be gaining a proven commodity who can provide a bit of veteran leadership and confidence to our SPs and OF. It would be ideal to give the young guys a bit of the playoff atmosphere taste and experience.  I don't want to lose specs and shed Myers and make no corresponding move this year.  I think that is worst case.

EDIT: Ryu has been acquired by Blue Jays.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 4:19 am

We don’t give up Edwards to get Pham if we don’t expect to win Playoff games in the next two years.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2019, 4:39 am

(Ryu ... Blue Jays ... $80MM/4 years).

Agree that the Padres need to be making moves understanding this is still a transition period waiting for more of the key internal prospects to arrive (and produce) to create the base of the roster. So, since all the prospects will not develop has hoped BUT knowing now which will fail is just a guess ... need to hold on to who they see as a quality prospect until their futures are clearer.

The exception may go to adds that have 3 or more years of control since 3 years should crossover the arrival and establishment of the major prospects . To that end, Marte (2 years control) does not match unless it is with a bargain price (not likely). Add that very unlikely Myers gets dealt and will occupy RF (Pham in LF) ... Marte’s CF defense is beginning to degrade so not a great upgrade to CF.

Next winter there will be FA and trade opportunities ... maybe with a better focus on longer term needs after a clearer picture on the internal prospects. Add that if a good group actually make progress in their development ... should be better trade chips as being more ML ready. Right now we may like them more than potential trade partners.

Keep a measured approach to building a team that will win soon while creating a team that will sustain that winning profile ... and that will require a number of the elite prospects to produce for the Padres as have Tatis and Paddack.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2019, 5:00 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 4:19 am

We don’t give up Edwards to get Pham if we don’t expect to win Playoff games in the next two years.

 

Or the Padres had a much lower projection on Edwards that most of us. Although I like any player that looks to have hitting skills ... Padres may have seen a single hitting 2B who would have trouble hitting at the ML level (see Urias). Padres may have 2B options that they (not necessarily us) see as the future ... Miller, Arias, or Marcano ... or just see adding a quality 2B via FA/trade is easier than most other positions.

If that was their view of Edwards then switching out Renfroe for Pham signals a philosophical change from high SLG / low OBP to high OBP / lower SLG that would set the tone for the rest of the roster over then next two years as prospects arrive. Renfroe was not the future and Pham is not the future.  A bonus if Pham generates more wins over the next two seasons.

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 11:20 am

Either way.....the entire future of a top 100 prospect and 4 years of Renfroe for 2 seasons of Pham.

There’s no way they aren’t expecting to win now.

Otherwise they would have gone for someone with more control.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 23, 2019, 11:47 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 23, 2019, 11:20 am

Either way.....the entire future of a top 100 prospect and 4 years of Renfroe for 2 seasons of Pham.

There’s no way they aren’t expecting to win now.

Otherwise they would have gone for someone with more control.

 

I agree, I think that AJP sees the 2019 team as being closer to the 1st half .500 team, than the abomination that finished the 2019 with a horrible record. IMO, AJP thinks the moves he has made so far, puts us into WC contention this season. Yes, I agree with many of the posters, that A LOT of things will need to bounce the SD way for that to happen, but I think AJP believes that 2020 is a WC contention year.

Quote from Commie on December 23, 2019, 12:06 pm

Not sure I've seen this one bandied about, what if AJP changes targets with CLE and goes after Jose Ramirez for 2B?  I know he had a down year last year, but I'd take a chance.

 

The conversation would have to start with Patino and at least one more system top ten.  France included makes sense given the hole it would create at 3B for CLE.

Quote from fenn68 on December 23, 2019, 12:10 pm

A little different view ... Preller plans for a better 2020 with a hope things go together for a wild card challenge but is really targeting 2021 for a wild card push ... hence Pham with 2 years control fits that ... don’t think Renfroe did for this roster.

If they really see the future as Gore and Patino (and closer than some think) ... both should be here late 2020 and g0ing full speed in 2021. Hopefully Trammell and Grisham have 2020 to further develop to supplant Margot in CF in 2021. Those hit and they can target that “final piece” next winter.

I too would have preferred a longer control upgrade over Renfroe ... but some trade partner has to have one and be willing to deal (at a reasonable price) ... not sure I can see that out there.