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Trade ideas for 2019
#191 · July 25, 2019, 12:17 pm
Snell (TB) is going to have elbow surgery to remove “loose chip” .... minor but out for at least 4 weeks. TB is already having to work through injuries to Glasnow, Lowe, Diaz, and Kiermaier ... and not that successfully as they have fallen out of a wild card position with a poor July run.
With the recent run, missing key pieces, and a history of preserving their top prospects ... could be they drop out of the “buyer” category and just “hold”.
Taking a buyer out of the game .... the sellers may see a price drop on their players due to reduce competition. Think speculation was on TB seeking RP and a power RH bat.
#192 · July 25, 2019, 12:36 pm
Just looked at some “odds” for teams making the playoffs .... Padres at 0.07% ... less than 1% may suggest seller.
However if the buyers look at this projection, they might not be overly motivated to overpay for an add.
In the AL, they have NYY, MINN, HOU as virtual locks as Division champs. TB, OAK, and CLE as the only teams in contention for the Wild Card ... and now with TB losing Snell (and the other injuries) maybe a revised look gives the high odds to CLE and OAK. So in the AL deals maybe for jockeying for their playoff games not an issue getting in.
In the NL, they have ATL, CUBS, LAD, with WASH as one Wild Card and a close battle between AZ and STL for the second slot. At least in the NL there is some chance of a Divisional concern between ATL - WASH and CUBS - STL besides the Wild Card slot.
Opponents records going forward make a big impact on the odds making.
#193 · July 25, 2019, 1:16 pm
Food for speculation from Joel Sherman.
First, he believes the Indians are motivated to move Bauer to shed his $20MM arb for next year and at the same time maximize his trade value. However, they will want ML pieces in return (think bat) to help them win this year (they are in the 1st WC slot and still have a shot at the Division) and in the future ... all that with low cost since payroll is the driving factor in all this for Cleveland.
Since Bauer's highest value now would be from a contender but a contender is not going to give productive ML assets which may hurt their chances, Sherman suggest (and actually this makes sense) they pursue a 3 team deal where Bauer goes to a contender ... the contender deals high end prospects to the 3rd team ... the 3rd team deals low cost ML talent (good talent mind you) to Cleveland. With Kluber coming back and Clevinger back, Cleveland may be fine without Bauer and better with a productive bat. Makes sense.
So, which contender with front line prospects to trade is interested in Bauer and has the payroll to handle the 2020 $20MM? Which 3rd team has the ML quality bat to deal to Cleveland (remember low cost / longer control) and actually likes the quality of the contender's prospects? Guessing the Indians would prefer to deal Bauer to a NL team but not necessarily.
Which contenders are really into adding a top line SP: ATL? CUBS? MIL? in the NL but only ATL and MIL have good prospects for the second part of the deal. NYY? HOU? OAK? .... write off MINN as a direct competitor and TB fading and not inclined to deal top prospects. I would put MILW as the top contender (some issues with injuries to their current SP) followed by ATL with a ton of prospects. Outside chance with HOU who needs to pre-build for 2020.
Can the Padres enter the deal as the 3rd team? In this scenario would think they deal Renfroe plus maybe France and/or Naylor ... all are long control and low cost. OF is maybe the Indians biggest need offensively in 2019 but they also need bats going forward. Remember their key value comes for dropping payroll so can't hold out for too much.
So, if the deal includes ATL we have pushed the idea of Pache or Waters ... so maybe (maybe even a very complicated 3 way were Atlanta gets both Bauer and Yates and relinquishes a wave of their prospects).
Houston of course has Kyle Tucker (not my favorite but still high regarded as a prospect) and others so the same Bauer and Yates combo could deliver a big return.
At least an interesting and creative idea for Joel Sherman based on some real logic of the Indians open to moving Bauer for salary relief and Bauer maybe the best of the available top of the rotation arms for teams want that.
#194 · July 25, 2019, 3:12 pm
Anything(almost) that brings Pache to SD is fine with me.
#195 · July 25, 2019, 7:02 pm
I saw where the Padres are showing interest in Nomar Mazara?
Why?
He hits left handed but is he that much better than Jankowski and Cordero?
What would we have to give up?
I know I wouldn’t trade Renfroe or Reyes straight up for him.....so where does he play?
I want Stroman.
#196 · July 25, 2019, 7:09 pm
Quote from David Nevin on July 25, 2019, 7:02 pmI saw where the Padres are showing interest in Nomar Mazara?
Why?
He hits left handed but is he that much better than Jankowski and Cordero?
What would we have to give up?
I know I wouldn’t trade Renfroe or Reyes straight up for him.....so where does he play?
I want Stroman.
Well, he has actually played this year, so he has that going for him. Which is nice. So that gives him the edge up on Jank and Cordero. The other item I see that I like is that he has 14 HRs, but has still driven in 53 runs. Unlike Reyes, that has 26 Hrs and only 45 RBIs.
Just say No to the Stro!
#197 · July 25, 2019, 7:39 pm
Not really competition for Jankowski (or even Cordero) since he is not a CF option .... actually more Reyes like in the corner OF slot bad defense.
Basically an average hitter but LH ... low cost .... 2 years control. Adding him (if the price was not too bad) just makes it easier to deal either Renfroe or Reyes in a deal for ?????
No idea who the Rangers would want in return ... but the Padres have a lot of second tier prospects that could get it done without damaging the future. Then shift the focus on the follow-up trade.
#198 · July 25, 2019, 7:52 pm
I really think more of Cordero as a RF than a CF. So there would be some competition IMO. Unfortunately, Cordero has only been on the field for what, 60 games in two years.
#199 · July 25, 2019, 8:35 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 25, 2019, 7:52 pmI really think more of Cordero as a RF than a CF. So there would be some competition IMO. Unfortunately, Cordero has only been on the field for what, 60 games in two years.
Have my doubts about the future of Cordero (injuries, very high K%, marginal defense) ... certainly not someone to rely on helping in 2020. Think he minor league options so a last chance maybe in AAA in 2020. If nothing else it appears that Mazara stays on the field and contributes ... even if just average offensively.
Interest stat comparison on runners in scoring position this year:
Renfroe .... 66 AB ... 5 HR ... 23 RBI .... 182/237/424
Reyes ........ 62 AB ... 4 HR ... 20 RBI .... 177/257/403
Mazara ..... 96 AB ... 0 HR .... 32 RBI .... 240/306/323
Can spin this a couple of ways .. and sure Mazara had more opportunities but it seems that Mazara is attuned to driving in runs with hits rather than the big hit less frequently plus the .306 OBP seem to indicate he can take the walk to keep the rally going.
Don’t hear a ton of demand from other teams .... so the price may not be that deterring ... toss around names such as Austin Allen, Ty France, Erlin, Stock, Bolanos, Margevicious ... a package of two may be fine.
#200 · July 26, 2019, 6:50 am
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-24-19/
| 1:40 |
: Kiley!! What’s a better use of Kirby Yates: packaging him with the Wil Myers contract (using the financial flexibility in the off-season to go after an ace), or aiming for even more prospects to add to the pile? |
| 1:42 |
: In a totally rational/efficient market, it should yield the same benefit. That said, I don’t think teams want to take on negative surplus deals to save flexibility and I wonder if SD would go spend a bunch of money if they dumped Myers deal with all the youngsters coming now? You’d also be selling low on Myers, so I would probably hold him and hope he recoups value. |