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Trade ideas for 2019
#131 · July 16, 2019, 1:28 pm
I don't think Atlanta will take on any salaries. They are only interested in bargains like Acuna and Albies. They are the Walmart of the contending teams. I think they will hold on to Pache and Waters . I don't blame them, I wouldn't want Myers at that cost or even half of it. I think we stand pat or a minor deal with Stammen.
#132 · July 16, 2019, 2:08 pm
Agree Atlanta is not going to take on deadwood such as Myers even at a portion of his salary ... not even tying him to Yates would get it done. However the will have some financial wiggle room next season with Donaldson gone ... more so if they move Inciarte's contract. They may just want to keep the payroll down but at the same time without Donaldson / Markakis they will need OF in 2020 and as I suggested relying on BOTH Pache / Waters to jump from AA and be productive in the ML in 2020 is wildly optimistic (not everyone is a Tatis or Acuna).
Maybe not out of the question that one of Pache or Waters (both CF and not with great power) get in play in a "bigger deal" surrounding Yates and one of Renfroe / Reyes .... Atlanta includes another prospect or two. They might like the idea of 2020 with Yates in the pen and an OF of Acuna - Inciarte - Renfroe / Reyes and either Pache or Waters the prospect to replace Inciarte. Better chance of winning in 2020 (as well as 2019).
Padres get a top CF prospect (a perceived need) but create a hole in the corner unless Myers makes a comeback to average and/or Naylor takes the next step as a ML hitter in 2020. Not counting on Cordero at this point and will assume the same as with Atlanta ... the CF prospect will be a factor later in 2020 not to start.
#133 · July 16, 2019, 2:28 pm
Saw another article suggesting Matt Boyd would be the prefect fit for the Padres as the ace going forward (remember the Tigers are demanding a ton). I understand the guys who love peripherals (in this case K/9) but might be important to look at game production. Boyd was ACE level in April - May but since looks like his past .... and that is not more than a #5ish. At the same time, Lauer is not loved by anyone and just ignored ... suggest he is as (or more) valuable going forward than Boyd. Consider:
Boyd is 28 .... 109 games (4.84 ERA) / Lauer is 24 ... 40 games (4.20 ERA) and in 2019
season: Boyd ... 3.95 ERA / Lauer ... 4.04 ERA
last 14 starts: Boyd ... 4.22 ERA / Lauer ... 4.15 ERA
last 7 starts: Boyd ... 5.88 ERA / Lauer ... 3.08 ERA
don't see that big a plus from Boyd worth give up a number of quality prospects ... his hot start in 2019 and his K-rate just are obscuring the reality of his mediocre performance.
I also get frustrated with the national types that want to trade every SP to the Padres (using the deep farm system). The strength of that deep farm system is pitching and what makes sense for the Padres is trading for position players with impact. Unless the SP is the next long term control version of Scherzer or Verlander ... the other names being tossed around are compelling (short of ACE level or short term control).
#134 · July 16, 2019, 3:43 pm
I’d have to say that if Lauer was in the AL those numbers may be different.
#135 · July 16, 2019, 4:10 pm
Quote from David Nevin on July 16, 2019, 3:43 pmI’d have to say that if Lauer was in the AL those numbers may be different.
Yep but if the key is Boyd (no matter where he is pitching) is a not guy that is a certain #1 to build on for the future and therefore trade a bundle of top prospects to get. I am just as willing to project the much younger internal options as equal or better pieces for the future.
Boyd is still just a 2 month wonder ... maybe the pitching version of Wil Myers?
To be clear don't think Lauer is a top of the rotation arm either just the observable differences are not so great to warrant a big prospect price to get Boyd.
#136 · July 16, 2019, 5:48 pm
Reading an article on ESPN on what each team should trade. They suggest that SD trades Yates; and to of all teams, the Dudgers. The thought of seeing Yates in that uni makes me cringe. If they did this trade, what do you want back from LAD to make it worth SDs while. They do have massage money available under the luxury cap, so would you force them to take Myers to get Yates?
#137 · July 16, 2019, 6:45 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on July 16, 2019, 5:48 pmReading an article on ESPN on what each team should trade. They suggest that SD trades Yates; and to of all teams, the Dudgers. The thought of seeing Yates in that uni makes me cringe. If they did this trade, what do you want back from LAD to make it worth SDs while. They do have massage money available under the luxury cap, so would you force them to take Myers to get Yates?
Hard to see the LAD with the best record in the NL and a good farm system buying into taking on Myers' bad contract just to get Yates. Not with their current front office who seem to be focused on removing deadwood and lowering related payroll.
LAD are well below the luxury tax level (per Spotrac) so they could do it and will be even lower in 2020 but probably will be using that space for someone like Cole to bolster their SP.
Getting Yates for prospects maybe but all the top LAD prospects are C, middle INF, and SP .... all strengths of the Padre system although if someone is considered a major upgrade as a prospect ... maybe.
A lot of teams want Yates ... so something from a team that has a greater need in order to be relevant in the playoffs should offer a better return (more the team need the more they pay).
#138 · July 16, 2019, 7:54 pm
Kind of inline of what I was thinking when I read that article. I think it was more from this would make LAD really good side, versus what would help SD. I think the only prospect that might be worth it would be Lux. And is he that much better than Urias?
I still think we can get Waters and 2 really good MiL P out of ATL for Yates.
#139 · July 17, 2019, 6:04 pm
As SD maneuvers towards the trade deadline, I think that you can divide the current players into three categories. Basically one group that is part of the future, one that is trade fodder to improve the roster as we move deeper into our run of contention, and one that would be undecided or more info needed.
Future - Machado, Tatis, Hosmer, Paddock, Renfroe, Lamet, and maybe Reyes (based on implementation of DH in NL.
Undecided - Luchessi, Lauer, Strahm, Mejia, Quantrill, Wingenter, and Garcia (like his LHB and versatility).
Trade-able - Margot, Jank, Kinsler, Perdomo, Hedges, Myers (wish he was).
IMO, we have 3B, SS, 1B, and LF covered going forward. We need to fill CF, RF, and possibly C. And IMO, the RF would be LHH.
#140 · July 18, 2019, 9:50 am
I guess I would drop Reyes, Renfroe, and Lamet in the undecided ranks .... still a lot of holes in their games to justify a spot on a contender ... need to see more progress. The key questions will be how much time will they be given to take the next step and will an alternative emerge if the Padres want to really contend in the next couple of years.
On the flip side would but Margot up to the undecided ranks ... he has the basic skills plus in the near term there are no real alternatives that have the same upside (or are even better now). With his last 30 days with a line of 263/382/561 (944 OPS) and plus defense makes him a Top 10 CF in that period. Need to give him the same benefit of the doubt as given Reyes and Renfroe.
Without the DH likely until 2022 (new CBA) ... think a call on Renfroe v Reyes needs to be made sooner than later ... as of now both are offensively the same guy so at least one has to jump to a lead. Renfroe is the better defensive option but Reyes in significantly younger with less experience and arguably a better chance of changing (improving). Can’t see a contender with both in the corners ... as they are now.