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Trade Deadline
#21 · June 27, 2023, 9:02 am
I would suspect if you are in the Padres front office, have to spin a lot of background considerations when coming to a buy / hold / sell decision. Yes, money is always a factor.
IF (that is the big starting point) the Padres are perceived as very long shots to a wild card ... there are a few considerations that may take a "toss up" to sell:
- Back some years the Padres had a chance to deal Upton at the deadline ... they held for the long shot to make the playoffs ... they did not make it ... lost on the opportunity to get a return. Worse this year that because of the repeat CBT offender and high level in conduction with the new CBT ... holding on a FA to be will yield a very low Comp pick (3rd round?) ... players such as Snell and Hader should get a prospect superior to a low draft pick and substantially closer to the ML in a system with not much in AAA/AA.
- This one is a bit more financial focused. Cot's has a projected CBT payroll for 2023 at $285.5MM ($53.5MM over the threshold and past the 3rd level) creating a whopping $34.4MM penalty. As I understand that the CBT is an end of year calculation and the numbers are adjusted for the pro-rated salaries traded away (saving both salary and penalty). If they don't throw away money in the last 1/3 of the season ... gives them more flexibility with cash going forward.
#22 · June 27, 2023, 9:15 am
I think the Padres have to go into the trade deadline assuming they cannot sigh Ohtani.
- if you believe the reports Ohtani wants to play on a consistent playoff contender ... 2023 (and the past 13 years) might push the Padres out of contention.
- Also, reports are that he wants to play on the West Coast. SF and LAD have big money ... spending under the CBT penalty thresholds ... and more importantly both are currently and historically more successful teams than the Padres. Plus LAA should be still in play as they are on the cusp of their own Wild Card slot. All three have positioned themselves to better appeal to Ohtani.
- If Ohtani is a $50MM/year FA ... Padres (in my opinion) will not increase payroll enough to accommodate him while returning the current team (even after letting the FA depart) ... would push the well over $300MM incurring even more CBT penalties and loss of draft picks for the future.
I guess could argue the big money commitments by the Padres to go for it in 2022/2023 ... and failing ... may cost them any shot at Ohtani.
#23 · June 27, 2023, 9:35 am
For us to sign Ohtani we would first have to make the playoffs....i would think we would also have to trade Soto either at the deadline or in the offseason at....or before....signing Ohtani.
#24 · June 27, 2023, 9:56 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on June 27, 2023, 9:35 amFor us to sign Ohtani we would first have to make the playoffs....i would think we would also have to trade Soto either at the deadline or in the offseason at....or before....signing Ohtani.
That is how I see it ... at least for any chance to sign him. Given the expected competition for Ohtani and given we don't know how his agent works the market ... the negotiations will take a long time into the off-season even if one team comes in with an initial mega offer and Ohtani knows his preference.
The challenge for the Padres front office is having to not pursue and big money FA (or just medium priced FA), let their FA walk, and maybe declining options on players like Wacha / Martinez, while trading Soto BEFORE knowing on Ohtani ... that puts them in a real hole as other teams pick-up the better FA pieces.
Under that scenario ... and if Ohtani signs elsewhere ... could spell a tough 2024. Actually even if they do sign Ohtani ... losing Soto, Snell, Hader with only Ohtani coming in still does little to deal with all the other weaknesses on the club and bets that the underperforming current players rebound.
I wonder how Ohtani will view the Padres as contenders without Soto, Snell, and Hader whether they are moved at the deadline or are gone after the season prior to make his commitment?
#25 · June 27, 2023, 11:09 am
Unless...and this seems unlikely but so has everything we've done the last two years....AJ/Seidler commit to signing Ohtani and keeping Soto through 2024.
Payroll would be close to $300 mil even with departures of Snell/Hader but....Ohtani may not care where we end up this year if he is joining a 2024 team that has Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts AND himself.
AJ would just have to write that lineup down and put it in front of him and his agent to have a good chance.
#26 · June 27, 2023, 11:22 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on June 27, 2023, 11:09 amUnless...and this seems unlikely but so has everything we've done the last two years....AJ/Seidler commit to signing Ohtani and keeping Soto through 2024.
Payroll would be close to $300 mil even with departures of Snell/Hader but....Ohtani may not care where we end up this year if he is joining a 2024 team that has Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts AND himself.
AJ would just have to write that lineup down and put it in front of him and his agent to have a good chance.
Actually probably closer to $325MM when you factor in increases for Soto, Wacha, Martinez, and some other Arb types plus the new Cronenworth deal kicks in. Then layer in maybe $50MM in CBT penalties. That is a lot of coin for betting on a spec that the team would be a contender ... did not work in 2023.
Would +Ohtani with the loss of Snell / Hader be enough to overtake AZ, LAD, SF given Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth unknown for a 2024 rebound and major holes remaining on the bench / CF / C.
If winning is the key ... have to go with the proven repeat winners in LAD or SF. Plus if his agent wants to max the earning potential ... the big market LA/SF visibility will keep him in focus both locally and internationally.
#27 · June 27, 2023, 11:41 am
Sort of the speculating about the alternative view with the Padres in contention for a Wild Card (and that is not happening without the Machado - Bogaerts - Cronenworth trio hitting) ... what do the Padres do?
Buyers maybe ... fill which needs given what might actually be available on the trade market with a barren system of prospects (except for the the top few) who could generate traction of a major add.
Been hearing speculation on adding another SP for depth. Given that most of the contenders want to add good SP ... the demand will be high and therefore the price will be high. Why would the Padres pursue a quality SP when the already have a playoff SP set of Snell, Wacha, Musgrove, and Darvish with Lugo probably sitting in the pen as the long man? Waste trade chips on a SP when still destitute at DH / C / CF?
#28 · June 27, 2023, 1:31 pm
I feel like we need a bullpen arm or two, maybe a new CF (or corner OF while moving Tatis to CF), a new C, and a bench piece or two (preferably a bat that can join the DH rotation).
In other words, some affordable pieces, but no big splashes.
#29 · June 27, 2023, 1:50 pm
Quote from sportwarrior on June 27, 2023, 1:31 pmI feel like we need a bullpen arm or two, maybe a new CF (or corner OF while moving Tatis to CF), a new C, and a bench piece or two (preferably a bat that can join the DH rotation).
In other words, some affordable pieces, but no big splashes.
Padres just don't have enough trade chips to fill all those holes with "upgrades" ... bodies maybe but at best the next Adam Frazier or Ryan Ludwick.
#30 · June 27, 2023, 1:52 pm
Quote from fenn68 on June 27, 2023, 1:50 pmQuote from sportwarrior on June 27, 2023, 1:31 pmI feel like we need a bullpen arm or two, maybe a new CF (or corner OF while moving Tatis to CF), a new C, and a bench piece or two (preferably a bat that can join the DH rotation).
In other words, some affordable pieces, but no big splashes.
Padres just don't have enough trade chips to fill all those holes with "upgrades" ... bodies maybe but at best the next Adam Frazier or Ryan Ludwick.
Sure, I didn't mean to imply we could get all of those pieces. I meant that was the list of needs as I see it, and intended to imply we should fill whatever needs we can.