Quote from WindsorUK on June 22, 2023, 9:25 am

If we lose today, I'm selling!

This team is dysfunctional.

Soto has value( certainly could return 3, possibly 4 guys). Snell would certainly fit a team looking for another SP to make an October run. Kim, Hader, .....part of a bigger package?

Keep the minor league guys and add to system depth.

Even without the above mentioned guys, we still have enough to make a run.

Quote from fenn68 on June 22, 2023, 9:46 am

Pretty sure we have another month before decisions are made … mainly because it will take that long for the other teams to turn into buyers or sellers.

The optimists among the analytical folks believe the offense players will revert to their norms resulting in an offensive uptick and winning with this pitching to make the playoffs.

The pessimists among the analytical folks believe the pitching will revert to their norms resulting in a decline in their run prevention and increase the losing.

The neutral may think they are both right … offense gets better / pitching gets worse … the net would suggest closer to a status quo … which when you are 6 games out of the last wild card slot with multiple teams that have to be climbed over …not optimal (but possible since all this projections will be wrong in some way).

For the analytical types that toss around the above … the Fangraphs’s projections of playoff probability that does all this stuff for all the teams and schedule his the Padres at only a 42% chance of the playoffs with MIA, SF, and AZ (LAD win the West) masking the playoffs and PHIL ahead of the Padres with a 44% chance.

So … 42% still represents a chance (actually still a good chance) but based on time remaining in the season … unless winning starts soon (and a lot) those odds are going to be dropping quickly.

The answer is start winning … a lot … in the next month or begin thinking about the best strategy for 2024.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 22, 2023, 10:34 am

Either way I don't think the word "sell" applies to this team.

Selling entails giving up on the season,and sometimes more than just this season....we aren't doing that.

Selling would mean dumping salaries...we aren't doing that either.

Could we trade Hader and Snell?

Sure....but it wouldn't be for prospects that are 3 years away....it would be for guys that could help us this year still...or for sure as soon as next season.

I could see releasing Cruz and trading the two above named players but not much more than that.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 22, 2023, 11:15 am

If the Padres are out of realistic contention ... I can easily see Hader  (FA to be) getting dealt since (in my opinion) the Padres will not resign Hader (he will be looking for Diaz type deal in the $100MM/5 year zone ... that would make not sense to the Padres). He will yield a prospect that is probably better than a Comp Pick for a QO. (side: as usual when things are going bad beginning to hear those negatives of Hader wanting to pitch in 3 consecutive games, not wanting to go more than one innings, and wanting to only come in to start an inning ... true or not something t consider for a 30 year old).

Snell (FA to be) is a bit more of a question given his recent performance on a team that will need SP going forward (and apparently liked by Siedler ... a major factor) but no word of extension talks ... expect a big money / long term demand ... if they don't start extension talks might he have priced himself out of SD and trading him gets something better than a Comp Pick for a QO.

Not much else has much trading value (except Soto and maybe Lugo) at the deadline ... deal with others in the winter if at all.

Lugo is pitching will enough to lead for him to decline his player option for 2024 ... so another potential FA.

Soto is the real wild card (and you all know how much I like him). I would guess he is "available" under the thought that with Boras as his agent (and his mega contract plan) the Padres will not sign him before he hits FA ... so Preller has to weigh Soto's potential value to winning in 2024 vs the quality of the return package plus what they may do with the additional $30MM+/- payroll flexibility.

Going to be a real hard call for Preller and Siedler to make the sell approach ... but for the good of the longer term that may be the best business move to deal players that will not be factors for 2024 or 2025.

Preller had no issue with dumping all those 2015 big time adds once the team failed ... so maybe not that big a deal to him.

We will see in about a month.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 22, 2023, 11:30 am

Best case scenario (other than making the playoffs obviously) is we trade Hader and Snell (can re-sign Snell in off season still) for a couple "good" lower level prospects ,and also trade Soto for 2-3 guys who can help next season.

Take the $ saved and sign Ohtani in the offseason.

Isn't that about $50 mil for those 3 guys?

Ohtani takes the place of Cruz and Snell....or Lugo if we were to sign Snell in the offseason (doubtful but possible)

Rotation of:Ohtani/Darvish/Musgrove/Wacha/Martinez would be just fine.

Maybe sign d'Arnaud and bring back Profar for LF

Lineup of:

Depending who we get for Soto that is

Profar-Tatis-Ohtani-Machado-Bogaerts-Cronenworth-d'Arnaud-Kim-Grisham

Pipe dream?

Probably.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 22, 2023, 12:09 pm

IF they cleared Soto - Hader - Snell for 2024 they would reduce payroll by $47MM(CBT)/$53MM(CASH) ... however if only clearing Hader and Snell ... Soto will get via arbitration about $30MM making the net drop only about $23MM. Yeh, some other moving parts with Pomeranz out but Cronenworth jumping up with his new deal and the unknown of options surrounding Wacha / Martinez.

Rumors suggest the Padres will go all in on Ohtani (agree $50MM is in the zone ... maybe less in AAV if they make it a long deal) and not expecting the Padres to push the payroll to $325MM range while considering the other holes to fill ... hard to see not moving on from all three.

Even if Ohtani is not in the picture (and it will probably take a long time to find out where he lands ... but really need to outbid the LAD) the extra payroll space can be spread a bit more evenly to re-fill LF/SP while boosting DH/C/1B to lengthen the line-up. I keep in mind that IF we believe in Tatis - Machado - Bogaerts - Musgrove - Darvish - Wacha (take club option) the core is still there to provide a legit contender.

Quote from fenn68 on June 22, 2023, 12:24 pm

Think about prospect returns ... if all three are hot going into the deadline ... Soto (with the extra year of control) could deliver as one of the return pieces maybe a quality AA prospect that has a chance to contribute in 2024 along with others (Soto is still loved by executives in MLB).

Snell with the right team (having a deep prospect pool) might also get a quality AA prospect in a position of strength (I have TEX in the back of my mind with some lack of SP depth but in position to make a legit run at the WS) ... TEX offense is one of the best in MLB and so close to the brass ring would be hard not to go for it.

Hader ... probably the smallest return potential unless a contender (or more likely team clearly on target for the playoffs) succumbs to an injury to their closer.

A chance this trade deadline will be the source of a lot of debate if the Padres are sellers ... or buyers.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 22, 2023, 8:36 pm

IF SD goes on a run, and they convinces themselves they are buyers, Adam Duvall might be a good option. Signed a $7M deal so not too expensive dollar wise, and should be a reasonable price prospect wise. He is playing CF this season, so provide a RHH option for CF to pair with Grisham, and he can play 1B or DH.

Plus he has a nice line of .313 BA, .403 OBP, .672 SLG with an 184 OPS+.

Quote from fenn68 on June 27, 2023, 8:39 am

Quote from BoosterSD on June 22, 2023, 8:36 pm

IF SD goes on a run, and they convinces themselves they are buyers, Adam Duvall might be a good option. Signed a $7M deal so not too expensive dollar wise, and should be a reasonable price prospect wise. He is playing CF this season, so provide a RHH option for CF to pair with Grisham, and he can play 1B or DH.

Plus he has a nice line of .313 BA, .403 OBP, .672 SLG with an 184 OPS+.

He shouldn't cost a lot in terms of prospects and should be available even if Boston is still in their Wild Card race (the are closer than SD) since they apparently want to work in one of their hot prospects into CF. They want to add to their pitching.

However, a bit of caution right now ... after a hot start to the season Duvall broke his wrist in late April and although he has returned in June ... his June slash line is 163/288/308  in 49 AB (inset the standard ... he would fit right in in SD). We will see his performance in the next month or so but also been suggested that a number of other teams (offensively challenged) would also be interested.