Quote from fenn68 on June 15, 2023, 9:20 am

A bit too early to decide the priority need(s) ... given the unknown of injuries / under-performing coming and how secure the Padres are in their Wild Card position. Makes a difference if they are adding for the regular season or structuring a team for in the playoffs (less of a need for a 5th SP for example).

Considering the Padres don't have that much to trade ... and setting up for a lot of teams to still be in the playoff hunt (therefore buyers not sellers) ... the price even for rentals may be higher than the Padres can (or would) match. Personally not trading any of the best prospects for a rental.

However, if the deadline was now ... would be looking for a DH/1B and back up OF with some offense. Probably that is all the Padres could afford prospect-wise if they don't move major prospect pieces.

Can't wait for the next Adam Frazier, Ryan Ludwick, or Josh Bell! As you can tell, at this point, not seeing much from the Padres at the deadline ... unless they are sellers.

Quote from BoosterSD on June 15, 2023, 12:07 pm

This year we could see buy/sell situation. Where we see piece or two move, and are replaced by a couple of others.

Could possibly be a money/upgrade type move.

Quote from fenn68 on June 18, 2023, 8:43 am

As the trade deadline approaches ... and keeping in focus potential moves next winter ... have to factor in payroll implications for not only CBT but pure cash flow.

Padres have the third highest CBT payroll now (over 3rd threshold) at $275.8MM and a large number of long term commitments on the books. At the same time with their TV partner going belly up they lost that $60MM cash infusion (guess for now MLB is covering some).

Did a quick guess at the cost of bringing back the current team (FA, Arb decisions, and existing contract commitments) with only Pomeranz being an offset ... that could cost another $50MM in CBT sending the Padres for 2024 to about $325MM and over the 4th threshold (much bigger penalties for repeat offenders).

With that landscape ... at the trade deadline ... might shy away for adding any high cost player whose contract goes into 2024 unless they have a plan to just let a few players go after the season. Will be hard to deal any of he Padres' high cost players (if in the add mode to make the playoffs) without damaging the playoff chances.

So, if in contention, Padres may just stand pat except for some low cost rentals to upgrade the bench.

If deemed out of contention ... a whole different story ... especially if they don't want to increase payroll for 2024 (maybe lower it) and their sense of who they can re-sign. Snell, Hader, and Lugo (probably declining a player option) will be FA ... Wacha and Martinez are on Club Options (each $32MM/2 years) if declined will likely opt out of the players side of the option ... and Soto will get a substantial arbitration increase for his last control year. All of these players will have a market ... actually a very good trade market.

The next month will be critical in determining if the Padres are buyers or sellers and that decision could have significant impact on the winter moves ... 2024.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 20, 2023, 8:53 am

It feels weird responding to this after the news about Henry.

The narrative seems to be that between the extra wildcard spots and the lack of separation in the central divisions that there might not be many sellers. With a little over 5 weeks to go until the deadline the market is still forming.

From the Padres perspective how they play leading up to the deadline could play a big role. I'm sure AJ would like to upgrade in CF, add a guy or 2 for the DH/bench mix, find another reliable reliever and maybe a depth starter. Sanchez has come back down to earth, so he may be looking for a catcher again too.

With how many moves have been made and how much money is committed to veteran players I expect the team will be buyers regardless of their standing. However, if the team finally gets going and puts together a good run going into the deadline maybe it's a more measured approach. If they keep scuffling along I kind of fear that AJ will do something drastic. I have to think he'll be on the hot seat if they don't turn it around.

From a prospect standpoint I think we have more to trade than most are giving us credit for. The lack of advanced prospects could be an issue, but we have a lot of highly regarded ascending talent at the lower levels. I think AJ has enough ammunition to make some significant moves. Whether or not we should want him to is a different question.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2023, 9:45 am

A lot can happen in the next six weeks.

Not optimistic that there will be a lot of players available that will be major plus adds for the Padres ... ones that they can (or want to) out bid all the other potential buyers. Add to that, the Padres really don't have much to deal that would get a premium player ... let alone multiple premium players. Don't underestimate the effort from other teams to offer more than the Padres ... they are just as motivated and maybe with better assets (and more payroll flexibility) to make a deal especially for players with multi-year control.

As it stands, only 8 likely sellers (DET, CWS, KC, OAK, WASH, COLO, STL and the sinking PITT) leaving up to 22 buyers. That is a formula for a lot of bidding up prices. Who are those teams willing to trade? Are any of those options any good? Do any fit a major Padres need?

Guessing that a DH rental may become the key add and maybe another fringe bench rental add.

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2023, 10:01 am

How far out of the last wild card slot do the Padres have to become sellers at the deadline? ... also consider the number of teams they would have to pass to secure that slot. The number of teams is critical since even if the Padres start winning games many of those teams ahead of the Padres will also be winning games and the Padres don't make progress.

As it stand SD is 4 games out of the last wild card slot with 37 losses ... have to pass LAD (33 losses and gearing up to make their own moves), PHIL (34 losses ... and they are hot), MILW (35 losses), PITT (37 losses but fading) ... but consider just behind are the NYM (38 losses and will make deadline moves) and CUBS (38 losses).

Again, 6 weeks can change this a lot but have to consider the Padres being sellers a real scenario. Padres need to start winning much more frequently to improve their position.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2023, 10:18 am

IF (and I hope not) the Padres become sellers ... they have a couple of FA at the end of the season who should be in high demand in Snell and Hader ... could add some quality near term prospects for those two impact arms.

Soto could (should) be in play ... controlled in 2024 (but expensive) and unlikely to be resigned by the Padres given his (and Boras') desire to go to FA for the long term big money deal. He is still valued around the league (his stats still look impressive) and with the extra control should get a very good return.

Move those three with the departure of Pomeranz' money ... Padres would have some financial flexibility going into the winter for more strategic adds plus maybe some prospects that could bolster 2024.

Would add possible moves (depending on how the Padres see 2024 and they offers) would be Lugo (on a player option ... good chance to opt out), Wacha (will they exercise the $32MM/2 year club option ... if not Wacha will opt out of the $8MM player option), Martinez (same scenario as Wacha). I could easily see Lugo on the table ... probably not Wacha ... and Martinez would be a big question since $16MM/yr is fair for a decent SP but over pay for a set-up RP (which is what he is now) ... but think they will keep Martinez at the elevated pay and again try to start him in 2024.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 20, 2023, 3:54 pm

I think they would have to absolutely crater for the team to think about selling. They've committed way too much to give up on the year if they're anywhere close to being in the race.

Quote from fenn68 on June 20, 2023, 4:08 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on June 20, 2023, 3:54 pm

I think they would have to absolutely crater for the team to think about selling. They've committed way too much to give up on the year if they're anywhere close to being in the race.

Which begs the question … what is anywhere close?