Quote from Stergios on July 31, 2023, 3:42 pm

ESPN reporting that the dragon up the road is discussing Verlander with the Mets.

BTW, apparently Fangraphs has us at a 39,4% chance of making the playoffs.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:42 pm

Quote from Stergios on July 31, 2023, 2:30 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2023, 2:13 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 2:02 pm

While waiting for deals to happen … willing to just brainstorm on trade strategies that MIGHT work for both teams trying to consider both teams’ needs and my always favorite money.

Sticking with the idea of Edman, consider:

1. Edman is a very good versatile player but a .250 hitter with minimal power … still in his 20s … making $4.2MM in 2023 and controlled for two more years (expect arbitration increases into the $5-6 milling range in each of those years). STL is clearly in  a fire sale mode and is seeking long term control pitching.

2. Enter Weathers, 23 with 5 years control at league minimum for the next 2 years … has upside still. Depending on who is making the evaluation could hold more trade value than Edman given he is a SP and young, cheap, with control.

3. So, could this deal be constructed to include Carpenter returning to StL … although he has little left is sitting on a 2024 deal at $5.5MM (just a bit more than Edman via arb) …

Could argue StL would still come ahead even if they DFA Carpenter after the season. Maybe a minor secondary piece from the Padres to StL. The key is their valuation of Weathers vs any other options (may not be all that many offering pitching).

From the Padres’ perspective adds some future SP risk but clears Carpenter (and his money) while adding a bench for two more years.

I think you're drastically overestimating the value of Weathers. I don't think he comes close to getting Edman on his own let alone with Carpenter attached to him.

Oh wow, I was thinking the opposite: that they’re underestimating his value.  He’s still only 23 and has been pitching well in AAA, I believe.

Perfect … that makes for a great trade with observers seeing the deal with opposite views.

A SP with upside and at league minimum and 5 years control is not something easy to pick-up … StL wants / needs SP going forward … so they gamble on Weathers at the expense of Edman (who right now is more ML productive) but not necessary someone they need for the next two years and will be much more expensive. Actually so much more expensive than taking on Carpenter’s contract (and immediately releasing him) still saves them money over the next three years.

Will some other team come in and offer something better for Edman … maybe but likely not for a utility player. If StL does not see Edman providing a key role going forward … need to get what the can that might help in 2024 and beyond.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:53 pm

Not sure the waiting approach from Preller is playing out well … so far. I see our Wild Card competitions are making adds (not waiting) and removing some of the the names this website brought up (although who knows how Preller view them).

1. Canha to the Brewers

2. Candelario to the Cubs

3. Seward to the Diamondback as their closer we think

Either Preller has a deal pending in his pocket or an unexpected blockbuster … or maybe standing pat (with some of the call-ups) is in the cards at least as it pertains to bats. There are still others out there … just some may be hard to get with the limited quality trade chips.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 4:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:53 pm

Not sure the waiting approach from Preller is playing out well … so far. I see our Wild Card competitions are making adds (not waiting) and removing some of the the names this website brought up (although who knows how Preller view them).

1. Canha to the Brewers

2. Candelario to the Cubs

3. Seward to the Diamondback as their closer we think

Either Preller has a deal pending in his pocket or an unexpected blockbuster … or maybe standing pat (with some of the call-ups) is in the cards at least as it pertains to bats. There are still others out there … just some may be hard to get with the limited quality trade chips.

Keeping with the theme … SF is acquiring A J Pollock and Mark Mathias from SEA … neither are doing all well in 2023 but both have better career stats so a bit of a gamble on a change of venue while maybe filling some deeper holes on the current SF roster.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 31, 2023, 4:54 pm

Our roster, as it is currently constructed, is very capable of making the post season.

I believe even with a few subtractions( Snell, Hader), we are STILL capable of making the post season.

IF Bogaerts and Cronenworth can play the last 50 games to their career averages, and Soto can settle for less walks and more contact, our O SHOULD be productive enough to carry the team ( pitching and D has gotten us this far).

Time for AJ's All Star big money signings( Machado, Tatis, Soto, Bogaerts, Cronenworth) to carry the load. It's a sprint now to the finish- time to leave it all on the field.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 5:24 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 4:03 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:53 pm

Not sure the waiting approach from Preller is playing out well … so far. I see our Wild Card competitions are making adds (not waiting) and removing some of the the names this website brought up (although who knows how Preller view them).

1. Canha to the Brewers

2. Candelario to the Cubs

3. Seward to the Diamondback as their closer we think

Either Preller has a deal pending in his pocket or an unexpected blockbuster … or maybe standing pat (with some of the call-ups) is in the cards at least as it pertains to bats. There are still others out there … just some may be hard to get with the limited quality trade chips.

Keeping with the theme … SF is acquiring A J Pollock and Mark Mathias from SEA … neither are doing all well in 2023 but both have better career stats so a bit of a gamble on a change of venue while maybe filling some deeper holes on the current SF roster.

But wait there is more

Cubs get OF Velazquez from the Royals

CINN get LHRP Moll from the A's

Maybe all small upgrades but still upgrades to teams ahead of the Padres ... and they just need to keep from going on losing streaks ... these moves help.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2023, 5:26 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:42 pm

Quote from Stergios on July 31, 2023, 2:30 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2023, 2:13 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 2:02 pm

While waiting for deals to happen … willing to just brainstorm on trade strategies that MIGHT work for both teams trying to consider both teams’ needs and my always favorite money.

Sticking with the idea of Edman, consider:

1. Edman is a very good versatile player but a .250 hitter with minimal power … still in his 20s … making $4.2MM in 2023 and controlled for two more years (expect arbitration increases into the $5-6 milling range in each of those years). STL is clearly in  a fire sale mode and is seeking long term control pitching.

2. Enter Weathers, 23 with 5 years control at league minimum for the next 2 years … has upside still. Depending on who is making the evaluation could hold more trade value than Edman given he is a SP and young, cheap, with control.

3. So, could this deal be constructed to include Carpenter returning to StL … although he has little left is sitting on a 2024 deal at $5.5MM (just a bit more than Edman via arb) …

Could argue StL would still come ahead even if they DFA Carpenter after the season. Maybe a minor secondary piece from the Padres to StL. The key is their valuation of Weathers vs any other options (may not be all that many offering pitching).

From the Padres’ perspective adds some future SP risk but clears Carpenter (and his money) while adding a bench for two more years.

I think you're drastically overestimating the value of Weathers. I don't think he comes close to getting Edman on his own let alone with Carpenter attached to him.

Oh wow, I was thinking the opposite: that they’re underestimating his value.  He’s still only 23 and has been pitching well in AAA, I believe.

Perfect … that makes for a great trade with observers seeing the deal with opposite views.

A SP with upside and at league minimum and 5 years control is not something easy to pick-up … StL wants / needs SP going forward … so they gamble on Weathers at the expense of Edman (who right now is more ML productive) but not necessary someone they need for the next two years and will be much more expensive. Actually so much more expensive than taking on Carpenter’s contract (and immediately releasing him) still saves them money over the next three years.

Will some other team come in and offer something better for Edman … maybe but likely not for a utility player. If StL does not see Edman providing a key role going forward … need to get what the can that might help in 2024 and beyond.

At a certain point upside stops counting for much. What has Weathers done lately to make anyone believe he is going to realize his potential? He's mostly gotten shelled at the major league level. He was awful in AAA last year and has basically been alternating between good starts and terrible ones lately. Upside has to turn into consistent production at some point for it to mean anything. The minor leagues are littered with guys with upside who never figured it out. He still has time, but he's trending in the wrong direction.

Edman at a minimum is a guy who plays gold glove caliber defense all over the field and handles lefties well. He's a very useful piece. With 2 years of control left beyond this one he should fetch a quality return if they move him. Weathers isn't going to do it. At this point they might be able to find a change of scenery type deal for him or use him as a sweetener in a package. He's not bringing back a quality controllable pieces on his own.

Quote from sportwarrior on July 31, 2023, 5:27 pm

I was about to say the same thing, Fenn. There is blood in the water and allll the sharks are here. If we're actually hungry, we've gotta start taking bites before all the food is gone.

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 5:51 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2023, 5:26 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 3:42 pm

Quote from Stergios on July 31, 2023, 2:30 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 31, 2023, 2:13 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 31, 2023, 2:02 pm

While waiting for deals to happen … willing to just brainstorm on trade strategies that MIGHT work for both teams trying to consider both teams’ needs and my always favorite money.

Sticking with the idea of Edman, consider:

1. Edman is a very good versatile player but a .250 hitter with minimal power … still in his 20s … making $4.2MM in 2023 and controlled for two more years (expect arbitration increases into the $5-6 milling range in each of those years). STL is clearly in  a fire sale mode and is seeking long term control pitching.

2. Enter Weathers, 23 with 5 years control at league minimum for the next 2 years … has upside still. Depending on who is making the evaluation could hold more trade value than Edman given he is a SP and young, cheap, with control.

3. So, could this deal be constructed to include Carpenter returning to StL … although he has little left is sitting on a 2024 deal at $5.5MM (just a bit more than Edman via arb) …

Could argue StL would still come ahead even if they DFA Carpenter after the season. Maybe a minor secondary piece from the Padres to StL. The key is their valuation of Weathers vs any other options (may not be all that many offering pitching).

From the Padres’ perspective adds some future SP risk but clears Carpenter (and his money) while adding a bench for two more years.

I think you're drastically overestimating the value of Weathers. I don't think he comes close to getting Edman on his own let alone with Carpenter attached to him.

Oh wow, I was thinking the opposite: that they’re underestimating his value.  He’s still only 23 and has been pitching well in AAA, I believe.

Perfect … that makes for a great trade with observers seeing the deal with opposite views.

A SP with upside and at league minimum and 5 years control is not something easy to pick-up … StL wants / needs SP going forward … so they gamble on Weathers at the expense of Edman (who right now is more ML productive) but not necessary someone they need for the next two years and will be much more expensive. Actually so much more expensive than taking on Carpenter’s contract (and immediately releasing him) still saves them money over the next three years.

Will some other team come in and offer something better for Edman … maybe but likely not for a utility player. If StL does not see Edman providing a key role going forward … need to get what the can that might help in 2024 and beyond.

At a certain point upside stops counting for much. What has Weathers done lately to make anyone believe he is going to realize his potential? He's mostly gotten shelled at the major league level. He was awful in AAA last year and has basically been alternating between good starts and terrible ones lately. Upside has to turn into consistent production at some point for it to mean anything. The minor leagues are littered with guys with upside who never figured it out. He still has time, but he's trending in the wrong direction.

Edman at a minimum is a guy who plays gold glove caliber defense all over the field and handles lefties well. He's a very useful piece. With 2 years of control left beyond this one he should fetch a quality return if they move him. Weathers isn't going to do it. At this point they might be able to find a change of scenery type deal for him or use him as a sweetener in a package. He's not bringing back a quality controllable pieces on his own.

It might depend a lot on who may be offered by other teams for Edman ... StL is clearly considering moving him (as well as others) to get SP for 2024. Their GM has made that quest very clear. As it stand they only have two ML SP pitchers under contract for 2024 ... Mikolas and Matz.

Agree that right now player vs player Edman is better than Weathers but for a team perspective having a quality bench piece (if Edman is not given the SS role) may not help all the much if they only have 2 SP.

Will any team offer a better SP than Weathers to get a excellent bench piece? Pitching is a premium ... so probably not. Side: StL looks to be in trouble for the next few years even in the weak NL Central ...