Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2023, 6:40 am

Well the next 10-11 games until the deadline will surely decide the direction Preller and Siedler go. IF they continue on this winning streak and the teams ahead start losing closing the gap to a Wild Card … not selling and maybe “fringe” buying. IF they start losing again and others continue winning with the gap growing … selling.

IF however the gap remains the same … there is the question but if the gap stays the same while winning would think they “hold” a take the gamble on a miracle Aug/Sep.

IF they go into sell mode … it likely is only Snell and Hader (maybe they get a buyer for Lugo but not for much). However, could be an interesting debate internally on what to target in the return.

1. Target near ML ready prospects that would benefit 2024 … maybe one hitter and a SP. Not sure that many (of quality) are in play for “rentals” and very unlikely they can land a ready SP if trading pitching. Also, since using the DH is more a “rotational”  role these days … would target a quality bat who can play the OF (maybe value post Soto) or even and INF.

2. Alternatively, if they want the “best prospects” in the return … would they opt of higher ceiling players maybe not ML ready for 2024 … then rely on the FA market to fill the 2024 holes? Logic being they want to keep winning year after year and “better” prospects would no more for that end.

That is a real debate depending on the view “immediate value” vs “longer term but greater value” in the prospect. Of course, part of the call will be driven by what the buyers have (and are willing to offer).

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2023, 7:03 am

Looking at the potential buyers and their prospects … and if boosting the help for 2024 is the objective … there could be some decent AAA/AA hitters in play … ones that can either play the INF or OF (keeping in mind DH is rotational). Just not sure no matter how good Snell or Hader are … they are “rentals” and buyers may not want to offer that quality of near term for them unless the Padres get “lucky” with a motivated team.

I keep going back to BALT and TEX … both with a deep slate of prospects. Last I looked BALT has moved into 1st place in the AL EAST and after being out of it for years might want to solidify the lead (and a bye in round one) plus bolster  a weak SP staff for a playoff run (think Snell). TEX is in a similar position in the AL WEST with a hot HOUST in pursuit with the additional motivation of keeping HOUST from adding a SP (which seems to be a target). Could be a nice bidding war between the two (especially if the CUBS are not aggressively marketing Stroman). TEX could also be in on Hader even after adding Chapman since their pen is not all that deep (or good).

A lot of possibilities for Snell … not sure such a deep set of buyers for Hader … but it only takes one “motivated” buyer.

Quote from Stergios on July 20, 2023, 8:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 20, 2023, 6:40 am

Well the next 10-11 games until the deadline will surely decide the direction Preller and Siedler go. IF they continue on this winning streak and the teams ahead start losing closing the gap to a Wild Card … not selling and maybe “fringe” buying. IF they start losing again and others continue winning with the gap growing … selling.

IF however the gap remains the same … there is the question but if the gap stays the same while winning would think they “hold” a take the gamble on a miracle Aug/Sep.

IF they go into sell mode … it likely is only Snell and Hader (maybe they get a buyer for Lugo but not for much). However, could be an interesting debate internally on what to target in the return.

1. Target near ML ready prospects that would benefit 2024 … maybe one hitter and a SP. Not sure that many (of quality) are in play for “rentals” and very unlikely they can land a ready SP if trading pitching. Also, since using the DH is more a “rotational”  role these days … would target a quality bat who can play the OF (maybe value post Soto) or even and INF.

2. Alternatively, if they want the “best prospects” in the return … would they opt of higher ceiling players maybe not ML ready for 2024 … then rely on the FA market to fill the 2024 holes? Logic being they want to keep winning year after year and “better” prospects would no more for that end.

That is a real debate depending on the view “immediate value” vs “longer term but greater value” in the prospect. Of course, part of the call will be driven by what the buyers have (and are willing to offer).

 

I’m thinking that they go for the best overall package.  They can field offers and decide which route to go based on what is proposed.  Perhaps that’s why Seidler came out and reiterated that he has full confidence in AJ : he doesn’t want AJ to feel that he has to make moves to win this year; he’d rather accept the best overall package available.  I guess it’s always preferable to acquire guys who are close to the Show, but if a team offers a really good younger prospect, that may be the move to make.

In fact, AJ has shown a willingness to deal major leaguers - even multiple ones - in exchange for a very promising youngster : Espinosa, Trammell, Mejia.

The good thing about his position is that he could field more offers because he could take either direction.

Now, I’m hoping that they could keep winning so that this whole discussion becomes moot.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 3:28 am

Heard a couple of interviews with Melvin where he takes the position that it is important in building a team to have players who came up through the farm system and developed together. Tie that with Siedler’s comments on continuity on the team is an objective and the leading would seem to be not to be trading the top prospects out of the farm system for short term adds. Would of course note the Preller may not be on page.

Not an issue if sellers at the deadline but could be an issue if a buyer or over the winter as they try to fill holes.

Now link the progress in AA by the MLB Top 10 prospect … Merrill who continues to hit. If the Padres see Merrill as the future and that future may be 2024 … does that reduce the need to add a hitter to this line-up (Merrill could DH if not in the field) or more aggressively does this make it easier to put Soto or Kim on the market … both expensive FA after 2024 and both should yield some quality prospects for the future continuity.

Just another wrinkle in the options to consider at this trade deadline or in the winter.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 21, 2023, 5:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 3:28 am

Heard a couple of interviews with Melvin where he takes the position that it is important in building a team to have players who came up through the farm system and developed together. Tie that with Siedler’s comments on continuity on the team is an objective and the leading would seem to be not to be trading the top prospects out of the farm system for short term adds. Would of course note the Preller may not be on page.

Not an issue if sellers at the deadline but could be an issue if a buyer or over the winter as they try to fill holes.

Now link the progress in AA by the MLB Top 10 prospect … Merrill who continues to hit. If the Padres see Merrill as the future and that future may be 2024 … does that reduce the need to add a hitter to this line-up (Merrill could DH if not in the field) or more aggressively does this make it easier to put Soto or Kim on the market … both expensive FA after 2024 and both should yield some quality prospects for the future continuity.

Just another wrinkle in the options to consider at this trade deadline or in the winter.

We've been chirping about that here since day 1. AJ however obviously doesn't buy into that.

Hope Seidler starts listening to baseball guys( read: Melvin). Preller should be gone.

Andy Green, in my opinion, was a baseball guy. Tingler....definitely not! Melvin? 100%! But all these guys have had AJ and his office staff making roster and game day decisions for them. I think it's fairly obvious as we continue to see the same amount of stupidity under all 3 guys( who are all very different)

Our lot won't change until ownership changes it!

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 21, 2023, 7:09 am

On one hand Merrill has the most value of all our prospects AND he plays a position we couldn't be more deep at....so he may be traded.

On the other hand,he would be a great replacement for Kim and could also be our SS for the next 10 years if we move Xander to 1b and Crone to 2b....so keep him.

Then again....we REALLY need these young Starters we have developing.....Lesko/Snelling/Mazur/Lizaraga/Williams/Iriarte/Groome/Wolf.

Salas is untouchable.

So who do we trade?

Snell and Hader would be giving up on 23' no matter who you got in return.

Small moves (that don't include anyone mentioned above)  or stand pat is my guess.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 8:17 am

Getting close to the point where "giving up" (at least as it relates to trading FA to be Snell, Hader, Lugo) is turning into the the better course for the future.

10 games to play until the trade deadline and at that point only 55 games to play in the season and that is not a lot of time to make up a big gap while overtaking quite a few teams sitting ahead of the right now.

Today, the Padres have 51 losses ... that is 7 games behind (in the loss column) to the last in Wild Card PHIL (44 losses). Then have to consider they are behind MIA (by 6 losses) and CINN (by 5 losses) and are tied with CUBS and NYM (51 losses). The odds are challenging that the Padres get red hot for the remainder of the season while at the same time those other five teams (actually any one of them) do not play well enough to end up ahead.

So in the next 8-10 games the Padres have to show they can consistently win AND that gap has to close AND the some of the other challengers have to tumble. If the Padres are sitting 7 games behind with the same mix to teams in play ... sitting with two (Hader, Snell) "rentals" who most analyst see as at the top trade assets at their position ... almost have to deal looking out for 2024 (and beyond) if being a contender for the long term is an objective. Just playing the odds.

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 8:36 am

I can't see getting enough value back in any trade (at least concerning players that are remotely may be on the market) using either Merrill or Salas.

Padres need both to end up on their ML roster ... first high ceiling talent ... but as important long low cost control. Padres have already gone all in with major contracts that eat up a lot of payroll space resulting in significant weakness in the depth of the entire roster.

What they would get for Merrill and/or Salas would be a shorter control / higher cost veteran making it even harder to fill out the roster and with no more certainty that the add could get them a Wild Card slot or even make them a significantly better club (see Soto ... see Clevinger ... see a long list).

In a sense learning from the past shortfalls of dealing prospects for "stars" and coupling with the locked in commitments to Musgrove, Darvish, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Cronenworth still leading to a team with a losing record ... have to begin focusing in building with a longer term of winning and not long shots on immediate gratification.

 

Quote from Stergios on July 21, 2023, 9:03 am

Quote from WindsorUK on July 21, 2023, 5:28 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 3:28 am

Heard a couple of interviews with Melvin where he takes the position that it is important in building a team to have players who came up through the farm system and developed together. Tie that with Siedler’s comments on continuity on the team is an objective and the leading would seem to be not to be trading the top prospects out of the farm system for short term adds. Would of course note the Preller may not be on page.

Not an issue if sellers at the deadline but could be an issue if a buyer or over the winter as they try to fill holes.

Now link the progress in AA by the MLB Top 10 prospect … Merrill who continues to hit. If the Padres see Merrill as the future and that future may be 2024 … does that reduce the need to add a hitter to this line-up (Merrill could DH if not in the field) or more aggressively does this make it easier to put Soto or Kim on the market … both expensive FA after 2024 and both should yield some quality prospects for the future continuity.

Just another wrinkle in the options to consider at this trade deadline or in the winter.

We've been chirping about that here since day 1. AJ however obviously doesn't buy into that.

Hope Seidler starts listening to baseball guys( read: Melvin). Preller should be gone.

Andy Green, in my opinion, was a baseball guy. Tingler....definitely not! Melvin? 100%! But all these guys have had AJ and his office staff making roster and game day decisions for them. I think it's fairly obvious as we continue to see the same amount of stupidity under all 3 guys( who are all very different)

Our lot won't change until ownership changes it!

I’ve arrived at the same conclusion.  Preller’s clubs continuously underperform. There’s a pretty within the organization.  The culture needs to change.