Quote from fenn68 on July 21, 2023, 1:47 pm

Buy or sell sometimes gets altered by what is going on with the current players ... and their 2024 future.

Michael Wacha appears to be a potential fly in the ointment in making decisions.

Wacha (now 32 years old) was in the midst of a quality season (8-2 ... 2.82 ERA) coming off a good 2022 with Boston (11-2 ... 3.32 ERA). That is the good, but

After 15 starts (86 innings) he goes on the IL with right shoulder inflammation July 4 ... sounds as though at best a mid-August return (just started light throwing). Then note in 2022 Wacha went on the IL July 8 (to August 14) with right shoulder inflammation. Back in 2020 on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. Other IL stints with an oblique strain.  He appears to be a at best 23-24 start pitcher maybe cap at 125 innings. Not optimal. At age 33 next season ... hard to project him being able to go a full season (maybe even more at risk).

That brings the issue ... Wacha is sitting with a Club Option ($32MM/2 years) making him a $16MM SP ... on one hand that is a big commitment for an aging pitcher with an ongoing right shoulder problem ... on the other hand the Padres are potentially sitting with only Musgrove and Darvish as ML quality SP set for 2024 and adding 3 quality SP over the winter is unlikely even if they spend all their money to target SP. (Note Wacha has pitched well enough for him to not take the player option at $6MM).

Are the Padres backed into a corner into taking the Club Option (and the risk) ... and focus on FA SP and/or trade for SP (instead of a bat)? Even with the clear lack of offense in 2023 ... are the Padres in a better position to rebound offensively with minor tinkering than building a 5 man rotation with any kind of tinkering?

My guess (with Wacha) the Padres start 2024 already at about $256MM payroll. So going to be very difficult to get impact bats and SP without blowing past the 2023 payroll (#3 in MLB).

If they are thinking ahead ... should have some impact on the trade deadline.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2023, 6:43 am

Well things seem a little different now.

With the 3rd best run differential in the NL and 5th in all of MLB it seems very doubtful we will be sellers.

So trading Snell and/or Hader seems very unlikely.

So what’s the new plan?

Add a RH DH/1b and a BP arm or two without giving up any of our top 5 prospects?

In related news….of all the teams ahead of us in the WC standings only the Reds are playing well.

Losses in a row:

Marlins 8

Phillies 4

Giants 4

Diamondbacks 3

The only team behind us that could be an issue is the Mets with their roster level….will be interesting to see what “they” do at the deadline.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2023, 9:41 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2023, 6:43 am

Well things seem a little different now.

With the 3rd best run differential in the NL and 5th in all of MLB it seems very doubtful we will be sellers.

So trading Snell and/or Hader seems very unlikely.

So what’s the new plan?

Add a RH DH/1b and a BP arm or two without giving up any of our top 5 prospects?

In related news….of all the teams ahead of us in the WC standings only the Reds are playing well.

Losses in a row:

Marlins 8

Phillies 4

Giants 4

Diamondbacks 3

The only team behind us that could be an issue is the Mets with their roster level….will be interesting to see what “they” do at the deadline.

 

The next 5 days or so will make a lot of difference for the Padres and the other potential contenders. Some of those faltering teams can turn on a dime and start winning again and change their view on being buyers or sellers. I would not rule out the Cubs as a challenger (though a long shot).

The Padres should make hay in their next four (DET and PITT) with their top four starters going and improve their position ... off day on Thursday before dealing with the strong TEX team. So, setting up for a buy or hold next weekend.

A hitter may be the "easiest" to add since the Padres have the flexibility to add anyone who can hit be it an INF or OF and still use the DH as rotational. Guessing they have no intent of displacing the starting eight position players. Most of the contenders are going to focus on higher end RP and SP and jack up the price from what might be a very limited supply of quality pitchers ... bodies will be there, yes, but quality maybe not.

Even at this late date ... not sure what players of quality (performing well now) are actually on the market.

My guess to get a quality player in demand by other contenders ... the Padres will have to give up a decent upside prospect or two sitting in the lower minors. Anyone's guess since the Padres view of these prospects is usually different than ours or another team's.

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2023, 4:52 pm

Well the loss today combined with wins by the teams immediately ahead of the Padres makes the 3 game set vs the lowly Pirates critical.

As it stands (focusing on losses) …. Four teams are at 46 losses for three Wild Card slots (CINN, AZ, SF, and PHI). MIA is only one game behind with 47 losses and then the CUBS at 51 losses.

Padres are at 52 losses … so behind by 6 games and have to pass 4 teams to get a Wild Card slot. Should note that the NYM are playing but also at 52 losses, so should consider Padres need to outplay 5 teams in their last 62 games while making up sufficient ground. Possible sure but based on the up and down efforts we have been seeing … no winning streak beyond 3 games … not winning the next three vs PITT while at home (that is what they can control) while any mix of the teams ahead of them winning could put them further out and make the playoffs even less possible.

Buy - Sell - Hold may be a decision take to the last day.

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2023, 10:42 am

Not sure where I draw the line on # of games out of the wild card and how many teams they have to pass on next Sunday before I make the call on buy - sell - hold.

It look as though CINN, AZ, SF, PHIL, and MIA ... if they keep their current winning percentage ... are on track to win 87-88 games and only three have to do that to set the benchmark for the Padres to beat.

Padres are a sub-.500 team with 62 games to play ... so to get to 88 wins the Padres would have to go 40-22 (.645) with a club that has shown little in 2023 that they can even run a winning streak. Padres have to make up a lot of ground in the next 6 games to be considered buyers ... go .500 and might as well jump to seller.

Quote from sportwarrior on July 24, 2023, 10:44 am

This team continues to lose games it should win, even with its back against the wall. That kid yesterday had nearly a 7 ERA this season and a 6 ERA for his career. He had nothing exceptional in his arsenal, and yet we couldn't push across a single run in a must-win/should-win game. I want the team to buy and want the team to succeed, but there's zero chance a few acquisitions changes the clubhouse-sized lack of mental discipline this team has suffered from all season.

The smart thing continues to be a strategic retreat. Sell Hader and Snell, maybe Lugo, and try to resign one or two this offseason. With 9 days remaining before the trade deadline, there probably isn't enough time to make buying a viable path forward.

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2023, 11:03 am

Does sound as though Snell would be a hot trade property at the trade deadline since he currently has the best ERA in MLB for starters (2.67). There are a lot of contenders that want another SP and since Snell is a FA there is not a major cost commitment (about $5-6 MM at the deadline) allowing some of the lower payroll teams get into the bidding ... expand the buyers and in turn boost the return. Should get at least one quality prospect (vs volume).

I do think the buyer would be disappointed (not my problem) given Snell needs to comfortable when he pitches and a change in team probably unnerves him. If I were the buyer ... would try to get Sanchez in the deal and keep the pitcher-catcher pairing to settle Snell. Sanchez is also a FA after the season.

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Hader also would be a hot trade chip ... #2 in MLB in ERA for RP and the best that would be on the market. Should be a lot of bidders for another FA to be at a cost around $5-6MM. Again should garner a decent prospect in return.

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Don't discount Lugo who will not take the player option and also be a FA. Might have a surprising set of bidders looking for a bottom of the rotation arm at something close to $2MM for the remainder of the season. Remember about every team in contention wants to add to SP.

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2023, 11:20 am

Quote from sportwarrior on July 24, 2023, 10:44 am

This team continues to lose games it should win, even with its back against the wall. That kid yesterday had nearly a 7 ERA this season and a 6 ERA for his career. He had nothing exceptional in his arsenal, and yet we couldn't push across a single run in a must-win/should-win game. I want the team to buy and want the team to succeed, but there's zero chance a few acquisitions changes the clubhouse-sized lack of mental discipline this team has suffered from all season.

The smart thing continues to be a strategic retreat. Sell Hader and Snell, maybe Lugo, and try to resign one or two this offseason. With 9 days remaining before the trade deadline, there probably isn't enough time to make buying a viable path forward.

Agree on selling Snell and Hader but not sold on re-signing them in the off-season.

1. Snell will get AT LEAST $125MM/5 years ($25MM AAV) since at the same age his agent (BORAS) will clearly pitch him as performing better than Musgrove (who got $100MM/5 years). Hader as the best available closer (and maybe the best over the past 5 or so seasons) will be looking at $100MM+ / 5 years ($20MM+ AAV). Re-signing them would put the Padres' payroll for 2024 greater than 2023 ... over $300MM ... with the same team with the additional holes in SP and on the bench. Padres need to distribute that money more strategically to build a full 26 man roster.
2. Despite the stats ... Snell and Hader may be part of the team problem. Snell is still a 5 inning pitcher putting the burden on the pen game after game (Snell is #42 in innings pitched for qualified SP). Snell has his own mind set for when he is comfortable pitching. Hader has a comfort level that demands ... don't pitch 3 days in a row / don't come in the 8th / come in at the start of an inning. Both seem to want to dictate usage for their own benefit and are not team 1st mentalities.

Bottom line for me is a team that moves on from Snell and Hader (and the long term big money contracts they will command) will have a better chance to win over the next 5 years.

Quote from sportwarrior on July 24, 2023, 12:07 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 24, 2023, 11:20 am

Quote from sportwarrior on July 24, 2023, 10:44 am

This team continues to lose games it should win, even with its back against the wall. That kid yesterday had nearly a 7 ERA this season and a 6 ERA for his career. He had nothing exceptional in his arsenal, and yet we couldn't push across a single run in a must-win/should-win game. I want the team to buy and want the team to succeed, but there's zero chance a few acquisitions changes the clubhouse-sized lack of mental discipline this team has suffered from all season.

The smart thing continues to be a strategic retreat. Sell Hader and Snell, maybe Lugo, and try to resign one or two this offseason. With 9 days remaining before the trade deadline, there probably isn't enough time to make buying a viable path forward.

Agree on selling Snell and Hader but not sold on re-signing them in the off-season.

1. Snell will get AT LEAST $125MM/5 years ($25MM AAV) since at the same age his agent (BORAS) will clearly pitch him as performing better than Musgrove (who got $100MM/5 years). Hader as the best available closer (and maybe the best over the past 5 or so seasons) will be looking at $100MM+ / 5 years ($20MM+ AAV). Re-signing them would put the Padres' payroll for 2024 greater than 2023 ... over $300MM ... with the same team with the additional holes in SP and on the bench. Padres need to distribute that money more strategically to build a full 26 man roster.
2. Despite the stats ... Snell and Hader may be part of the team problem. Snell is still a 5 inning pitcher putting the burden on the pen game after game (Snell is #42 in innings pitched for qualified SP). Snell has his own mind set for when he is comfortable pitching. Hader has a comfort level that demands ... don't pitch 3 days in a row / don't come in the 8th / come in at the start of an inning. Both seem to want to dictate usage for their own benefit and are not team 1st mentalities.

Bottom line for me is a team that moves on from Snell and Hader (and the long term big money contracts they will command) will have a better chance to win over the next 5 years.

Good points on both. I was thinking maybe Snell, primarily because he seems to love SD and is comfortable here. And while this has been his best season (early season hangover wasn't as bad nor did it last as long as previous seasons) with his highest average for innings per start, you're right... he's not a guy you can rely on to save your bullpen.

Lugo was the other guy I had in mind as a long shot maybe. Hader I've sort of written off as a candidate to resign.