Quote from dusty on July 18, 2023, 8:19 am

Currently 19 teams "In it." Padres have the most desirable trade pieces to sell while not mortgaging the future. If there is a chance in reigning them with a desire to bring them back at the salary they are going to command, you absolutely sell unless you can get under the luxury tax and prefer the draft pick compensation.

I still am a huge fan of Soto but his defense has been very very concerning and has cost the team games that could have changed the course of the season. I think you HAVE to field offers on him and make a move IF you get a good young pitcher AND a good young outfielder/first baseman and good prospects. A team gets Soto for 2 post season runs and if you want to make a run at Soto in two years you can still make the run at him.

Snell, Hader, Lugo, Martinez, Wacha (possibly) and Soto, could yield two top of the rotation arms, two good bats and prospects and potentially put the team in better shape in a year or two while freeing payroll to get either Ohtani, Urias or Nola to solidify the top of the rotation with Snell set to leave.

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2023, 10:15 am

If the Padres move Snell, Lugo, Hader, Soto, Martinez, and Wacha ... plus tag Carpenter into one of those deals ... in 2024 the "starting" CBT payroll would drop to just over $200MM (well under the first penalty threshold). That would give them a lot of flexibility in the FA market to fill any holes not addressed in the trades. That would be retooling off what is believed to be a strong returning core. Actually in 2023 they would drop enough I believe to move down a threshold and save additional cash in penalties beyond salaries.

So if that happened, Siedler remains focused on winning and will be OK with a payroll like this year ... maybe $80MM to deploy on FA. If you assume no Ohtani (although it does appear that he is a target for the Padres) ... that could get them 4 $20MM players of 5 $15MM players that ON PAPER could be the basis of a better team than with the departing players.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2023, 1:06 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2023, 10:15 am

If the Padres move Snell, Lugo, Hader, Soto, Martinez, and Wacha ... plus tag Carpenter into one of those deals ... in 2024 the "starting" CBT payroll would drop to just over $200MM (well under the first penalty threshold). That would give them a lot of flexibility in the FA market to fill any holes not addressed in the trades. That would be retooling off what is believed to be a strong returning core. Actually in 2023 they would drop enough I believe to move down a threshold and save additional cash in penalties beyond salaries.

So if that happened, Siedler remains focused on winning and will be OK with a payroll like this year ... maybe $80MM to deploy on FA. If you assume no Ohtani (although it does appear that he is a target for the Padres) ... that could get them 4 $20MM players of 5 $15MM players that ON PAPER could be the basis of a better team than with the departing players.

Sounds good.....until you realize this would be taking a 4th place team and removing 5 of its top 10 players.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2023, 1:35 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2023, 1:06 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 18, 2023, 10:15 am

If the Padres move Snell, Lugo, Hader, Soto, Martinez, and Wacha ... plus tag Carpenter into one of those deals ... in 2024 the "starting" CBT payroll would drop to just over $200MM (well under the first penalty threshold). That would give them a lot of flexibility in the FA market to fill any holes not addressed in the trades. That would be retooling off what is believed to be a strong returning core. Actually in 2023 they would drop enough I believe to move down a threshold and save additional cash in penalties beyond salaries.

So if that happened, Siedler remains focused on winning and will be OK with a payroll like this year ... maybe $80MM to deploy on FA. If you assume no Ohtani (although it does appear that he is a target for the Padres) ... that could get them 4 $20MM players of 5 $15MM players that ON PAPER could be the basis of a better team than with the departing players.

Sounds good.....until you realize this would be taking a 4th place team and removing 5 of its top 10 players.

 

Not sure 4th place with these guys is good thing … is it really that worse to be 5th place without them. A chance to be better with their replacements garnered in trades / and FA with the money saved.

Anyway Snell, Hader, Lugo will not be here in 2024 anyway … Wacha and Martinez are iffy … and Soto (at $30MM in 2024) should go while he has any trade value.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 18, 2023, 1:46 pm

Oh I get it...not saying we shouldn't trade them.

But this list of players are most of the ones who have been performing to their expectations...leaves us with Tatis,Kim and a bunch of guys not producing to their contracts.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 19, 2023, 9:54 am

I think AJ is still looking for a reason to buy. So far the team hasn't given him one. They're running out of time, but if they were to go say 8-4 or better I think he buys. The question is what his strategy will be. Would he focus only on controllable players? Go overly aggressive knowing they have a lot of ground to make up? Try to do some combination of buying and selling? Things could still get interesting if they can string some wins together.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2023, 11:01 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 19, 2023, 9:54 am

I think AJ is still looking for a reason to buy. So far the team hasn't given him one. They're running out of time, but if they were to go say 8-4 or better I think he buys. The question is what his strategy will be. Would he focus only on controllable players? Go overly aggressive knowing they have a lot of ground to make up? Try to do some combination of buying and selling? Things could still get interesting if they can string some wins together.

The theory of buying may not fit with what the Padres have to trade (or want to trade) for quality upgrades who are being pursued by other teams. They may have pieces to get some support players (Adam Frazier types) especially if they are willing to take on a significant contract.

My guess if the Padres want to believe they can make a run at the Wild Card … they just “hold” on the current primary pieces and fill the bench around him. If you don’t trade Merrill or Salas … not going to get much traction on a major player.

Hard to cut through the posturing by Preller / Siedler on being positive for the future but if they do believe the core (plus some winter FA adds) will be able make the playoffs in 2024 … none of the controlled players (i.e. Soto) will be traded even if they wave the white flag at the deadline. At that point … the FA to be Snell, Hader, and Lugo become trade chips … they should yield some pieces that could help in 2024 BUT if the offers are not impressing Preller, I could see the Padres holding on them and take the real long shot of making a Wild Card while providing entertainment for the fans with a potential hot run for those who spent a bundle on tickets.

 

Quote from Jeremy Hill on July 19, 2023, 12:08 pm

I still think they have more to trade than most give them credit for. I also don't think the team really needs major adds. A backend starter to fill in for Wacha and push Lugo to the bullpen when he returns and something to upgrade the DH/bench mix might be enough. Depending on the time frame for Wacha and Suarez they might want another reliever too. I don't think it would take major prospects to accomplish that. I also think some of the less heralded young guys having good years have more value than we think they do.

Quote from 84padres on July 20, 2023, 5:09 am

If we do trade , who else can offer arguably the best SP and Closer ? Package Snell and Hader together ( or separately ) and offer them to TB ( or anyone )and say what do you offer for the chance to win the world series ? Remind them that flags fly forever .