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#71 · March 6, 2020, 9:23 am
Thanks David, I've always been fascinated by the variation in prospect rankings and how it plays out when you put it all together & take the "average". I used to just do that, but as time has gone on & familiarity with system has gone up, now enjoy putting my 2 cents in too. I like to get the "big" picture of where guys traded in & out stand relative to each other in our system, and of course pointing out that the Rule 5 guys shouldn't be "forgotten" just b/c they're where they should be... in the minors developing.
The names I feel like coaches & players are praising the most in camp so far are: Torrens & Cronenworth. FWIW, I don't put any emphasis on players options remaining of relative chance of making this year's team with regard to rankings. But of course out of options guys trade value dramatically lower than same guy with 1-2 left. I may be high on Torrens, but it's pretty clear he's somewhere between Campusano & Hunt as a prospect. Much > Austin Allen. I'm curious for more info on Torrens being "BAD" defensively in Elsinore 2 years ago, b/c thought his rep was pretty decent defensively? His option situation (inherent with all R5 guys) & Mejia none left puts pressure on a trade of 1 of the Pads 3 40-man roster C's in the next 12 months.
JC could definitely make roster this year, while I see little to no chance for Miller due to no pressure to add him & sheer # of other options. But gave Miller the nod due to youth & more consistent track record.
Your idea that some players are deliberately pushed to a level where their approach will fail is fascinating! Of course, it's hard to sort out when the system "knew" that would happen vs. when the player simply hits their limitations ceiling. It does raise a major gripe I have with SP development; feel like there is not enough of a "plan" from moment drafted to develop them. Maybe too much reliance on what got them drafted & not enough (or at least too late) focus on developing the 2nd & especially 3rd pitches for SP's... they should be throwing these pitches that need the work a defined % of time in Minors, and it just doesn't seem like they do/are. How can Lucchesi be entering his 3rd year as a MLB SP without a functional 3rd pitch? What did he work on the last TWO offseasons? Pads DID FORCE Munoz to work on his breaking ball, and look where he is.... top 15 BTW; 23 IP does NOT "graduate" a guy!
#72 · March 6, 2020, 9:26 am
3 
Quote from LynchMob on March 5, 2020, 12:18 pmKeith Law’s prospect rankings: San Diego Padres
The Padres’ system is still strong, but they graduated two of their best prospects last year (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack), and the system has taken some hits from prospects who’ve stalled and from a few surprising trades. They’re still deep, but not as deep as they appeared to be a year ago.
Law's rankings are always weird, but this one is annoyingly so. Like he's trying to find the needle in the haystack by putting guys in top 20 who are more like 50. Speaks to our depth, but I still find it annoying to bypass 2o more obvious names just so he can say he was "first" on someone if they take off. His perogative, but kind of bush league IMO
#73 · March 11, 2020, 2:17 pm
https://www.prospects1500.com/overall-top-199-prospects-march-2020/
| 5 | MacKenzie Gore | LHP | Padres | 2538 | 3 | 13 | 27 |
| 16 | CJ Abrams | SS | Padres | 2208 | 5 | 31 | 27 |
| 29 | Luis Patino | RHP | Padres | 1864 | 7 | 63 | 27 |
| 47 | Taylor Trammell | OF | Padres | 1318 | 16 | 87 | 26 |
| 80 | Luis Campusano | C | Padres | 552 | 46 | 90 | 17 |
| 136 | Hudson Head | OF | Padres | 52 | 71 | 100 | 6 |
| 139 | Adrian Morejon | LHP | Padres | 42 | 86 | 96 | 4 |
| 183 | Gabriel Arias | 2B | Padres | 7 | 94 | 94 | 1 |
| 186 | Edward Olivares | OF | Padres | 5 | 96 | 96 | 1 |
| 195 | Jake Cronenworth | SS/RHP | Padres | 3 | 98 | 98 | 1 |
#74 · March 11, 2020, 4:32 pm
Quote from LynchMob on March 11, 2020, 2:17 pmhttps://www.prospects1500.com/overall-top-199-prospects-march-2020/
Woof.
#75 · March 11, 2020, 5:13 pm
So Luis Patino was actually left off of one persons top 100 list?
😳
#76 · March 26, 2020, 3:14 pm
With the deal of Quiroz to TB today ... MLBTradeRumors deleted Quiroz from the Padres and added as #30 Lake Bachar.
#77 · July 10, 2020, 12:57 pm
I refer to the “Consensus” ranking of Padre prospects a lot. Here they are! I actually completed this before ST "One" started! The idea is to “average out” both local & National bias, but the rankings are increasingly local with 5 Madfriars guys + East Village Times James Clark, UT’s Jeff Sanders & myself. Major National rankings used are: MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America, The Athletic – (bonkers) Keith Law, & Prospects Live – Lance Brozdowski. Also less deep (10-15 prospects): Roto Professor, John Sickels-also The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, Bleacher Report, & Prospects 361.
There is a very strong consensus on the top 25 guys, but then the depth of the system shows up with a huge number of names lower on ranking lists. There are clear Talent drop-offs after the: #1, #5, # 10, #20, #25 prospects. But after #25, the depth literally runs down to #75, which is remarkable. Unlike most systems, not only is there is not a lot of separation between the #33 and #63 prospects; there is actually some projectable talent that far down.
I took the list to 40 prospects + some Honorable mentions. Prospects traded out AND in are included; I wanted to get a feel for their relative values. Some guys traded out & others with MLB service time may have been “punished” by exclusion from some lists. I use: 100+ AB’s for position players, 10 starts &/or 50 IP for SP’s, and 30 appearances &/or 35 IP for RP’s to “graduate” as prospects. I don’t plan to change this due to shortened season, so very few guys likely to graduate this year.
The top 25 is by average ranking. I used Madfriars Consensus ranking (times 5) for their top 15, but their individual player rankings for their consensus #16-20. #26-40 is based on # of rankings. Every guy got either 2 top 25 rankings, or 5 rankings of some kind, or both. I did not include the current draft picks, but logically would slot: Hassell #6, Wilcox #10, Lange #15, Caissie #25 range.
Here’s the Top 10, then the rest. The (#) behind the top 6 guys is their prospect rank in all of MLB using the average of: MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, John Sickels, Baseball America, & Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) who all do Top 100 MLB prospects rankings:
Top 5-10 in MLB: 1. Mackenzie Gore (L) SP (#4)
Top 25-50 in MLB: 2. Luis Patino SP (#24) 3. C.J. Abrams SS (#28)
Top 50-100 MLB: 4. Taylor Trammell (L) OF (#59) 5. Luis Campusano C (#55) 6. Xavier Edwards (S) 2B/SS (#74)
Trammell was ranked slightly lower overall by the 6 who did Top 100 rankings, but was rated significantly above Campusano overall by all rankings. X. Edwards was clearly by consensus the Padres’ 6th best prospect at the time he was traded with Renfroe as part of the deal for Pham & Cronenworth.
Top 100-200 MLB: 7. Adrian Morejon (L) SP (“#102”) 8. Gabe Arias SS 9. Michel Baez SP 10. Ryan Weathers (L) SP
Morejon made 3 of 6 top 100 lists, plus getting a non-specific “top 100” ranking from Bleacher Report & myself, so his “just miss” at #102 is extrapolated. Arias & Weathers each were ranked #94 by just 1 of the 6. Baez received no top 100, but clearly still being rated on his shrinking opportunity to make it as a SP.
Worth noting that Baez is the only prospect in Top 10 who is subjectively “old” for his projected (pre-Covid) Minors level at 24. Trammell is at the “right” level for his age; AA @ 22. The other 8 guys are ALL young for their projected level. Partly their quality, partly Pads system HS/INTL emphasis which has resulted in an overlooked system strength: Not only one of the best, but maybe the #1 system in terms of Top prospects projected above their “typical” age level: 8 of top 10, 13 of top 20, 15 of top 22!
#78 · July 10, 2020, 1:07 pm
#11 – 20 Padres system: 11. Joey Cantillo (L) SP 12. Owen Miller 2B/SS 13. Hudson Head (L) CF 14. Edward Olivares OF 15. Reggie Lawson SP “15-A”. Jorge Mateo SS/2B/OF 16. Andres Munoz RP 17. Ronald Bolanos SP 18. Hudson Potts 3B 19. Tucupita Marcano (L) 2B/INF 20. Jake Cronenworth (L) SS/2B/RP?
Only Hudson Head stands out as an “ability based” potential top 100 MLB prospect down the road. He, Cantillo, Munoz, Potts, & Marcano are all young for their projected level this season. Mateo & Cronenworth are old (25) & very old (26) for their projected MLB debuts this season. Former multiple season top 100 prospect Mateo was rated #7 (MLB.com ) / #8 (Baseball America) in Oakland’s #15 system; meaning he would be a top 10 in at least 1/2 –likely 2/3—of systems. MLB.com slotted him at #13 for Padres, I bumped him down a couple of notches. Like Profar, he is “arrow down”, but a legit prospect likely to get SOME chance this year since out of options.
Lawson got silver lining of TJ Surgery in a season he wouldn’t have played anyway. Munoz pitched 22 G, 23 IP in MLB, so has not “graduated” as a prospect & will make the list again next year. Should return early-mid 2021 as an RP 12 months post surgery next O.D. Potts is only prospect in Top 20 (along with Justin Lange) NOT in the 60-man pool. Could be an indictment, but could just be that he has received a LOT of development with 2 straight years in Arizona Fall League, & just want to give other players the limited development “slots” / coaching this weird season.
#21 – 25 Padres system: 21. Tirso Ornelas (L) OF 22. Jeisson Rosario (L) OF 23. Blake Hunt C 24. Javier Guerra RP 25. Joshua Mears OF
Rosario & especially Ornelas had tough seasons last year, but are young for projected level. So is Mears. Guerra is old”, but has already debuted in MLB (twice!), and one of few guys who should “graduate” this season, since out of options. There is a consensus “talent gap” between #20 & #21, and an even bigger one between #24 & #25… and a similar one between #25 & #26. In other words, Mears by consensus is definitely the #25 prospect! 2nd round Draftee Caissie as another power hitting HS OF pretty obviously will slot in right near Mears next year. These 25 prospects were rated as such by vast majority of all lists that went that deep. But the consensus then falls off a cliff from here as the depth of the system >#25 becomes evident.
#26 – 30 Padres system: 26. Reginald Preciado (S) SS 27. Esteury Ruiz 2B / OF 28. Logan Driscoll C 29. Jorge Ona OF 30. Ismael Mena (L) CF
All of these guys had at least 3 top 25 rankings, and landed on 8+ lists somewhere (except Driscoll; 5 top 25, 6 lists before traded). Preciado had a shot at playing in AZL at 16-17 = young for level. Others about right. Ruiz’s speed should give him a defensive position, but may not be in INF. Tough season in 2019. Driscoll was relatively old & blocked by the C depth ahead of him in Pads’ system. Loss of season for a 22 y.o. low A Catcher (plus of course Margot only having 2 yrs control) swings the Pagan trade further in Pads’ favor. Ona should get added to 60-man pool when healthy to make up some of the development time he lost most of last year (shoulder surgery).
#31 – 40 Padres system: 31. Anderson Espinoza RP/SP 32. Yeison Santana SS 33. Justin Lopez (S) 3B/INF 34. Junior Perez OF 35. Esteban Quiroz (L) 2B 36. Luarbert Arias SP 37. David Bednar RP 38. Jake Nix SP 39. Mason Thompson SP 40. Osvaldo Hernandez (L) SP
Really parsing nominal differences here. Espinoza clear nostalgic favorite making 8 lists (1 top 25). Missing 4 seasons now don’t see how can look at him as anything but RP, and despite high ceiling also extremely high risk. On bubble of Pads 40-man roster this offseason. Bednar made 7 lists, but no top 25. #32 - #36 made fewer lists, but each made two top 25, showing divergence of opinions & system depth. 4 young guys in their teens +“Ultra-old” (28) but controllable Quiroz exchanged for just “very old” (26) Cronenworth as the PTBNL in Rays trade. Nix, Thompson, Hernandez all flashed at different times last year, but lost bulk of season to injury. All 3 might be Top 20 in bottom ½ of MLB systems.
Honorable Mention: Omar Cruz (L) SP, Eguy Rosario 2B, Pedro Avila SP, Ivan Castillo (S) 2B, Jordy Barley SS, Buddy Reed OF, Austin Allen (L) C, Sean Guilbe 3B/2B
Last year’s #19 & 20 Reed & A.Allen got little consideration when traded relatively early on for Profar, but I had Allen #25. I also like Castillo (my #30) as a late blooming Intl “prospect”. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him on 60-man roster eventually. He & Avila (TJ Surgery 9/2019) re-upped with Padres as Minors FA this year; may be candidates to do so again after weird 2020.
#79 · July 10, 2020, 4:39 pm
Brian,
Love your effort in getting these relative rankings together. When you add the recent additions of Hassell and Wilcox, you have an even better system in 2021 than you had prior to the draft. Pitching appears especially deep despite the typical arm injuries every MLB team sees in its minors from year to year. One can dream about getting a healthy Munoz, Castillo, Lawson and Espinoza back on the field in 2021 and continued development of Gore and Patino at the top of the list. Throw in Weathers, Cantillo, Wilcox, L. Arias, O Cruz, Lange and others and you have great depth. Then you have sleepers like Rascon, Partida, F Lopez, E Contreras, Brash and Fellows. This is the fun part of the game for me is to see who develops among the many arms in the system - sad that we'll all have to wait until at least 2021.
#80 · July 10, 2020, 11:44 pm
Most teams in MLB will have better Farms in 2021 than 2020, since so many fewer prospects will graduate. But I agree Pads look like they'll be one of those teams, with current top 5 not even on 40-man roster. The 2 RH Power arms were exactly what system needed; the SP depth in the organization is easily near or maybe the best in baseball.
Still think the 2019 O.D. Farm system was #1, but short season strengthens the projected 2021 Farm & makes it really close.