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#61 · January 25, 2020, 1:56 pm
Padres (5)
4. MacKenzie Gore, LHP (ETA: 2020)
25. CJ Abrams, SS (2022)
27. Luis Patino, RHP (2021)
50. Luis Campusano, C (2021)
57. Taylor Trammell, OF (2021)
The Padres established a new MLB Pipeline record last year with their 10 Top 100 prospects and 574 Prospect Points and also led the way in both categories (7 and 423, respectively) in 2018. But their two-year run as the best-represented team on the Top 100 now has come to an end, as the club is one of eight teams this year to place five players in the Top 100. The Padres still have the most Prospect Points (341), thanks largely to the presence of No. 4 prospect MacKenzie Gore, not to mention the fact that each of their five Top 100 prospects rank inside the top 60 spots. However, it’s also the lowest top Prospect Points total since MLB Pipeline expanded its rankings from 50 to 100 in 2012.
#62 · January 25, 2020, 4:49 pm
Everything I’ve seen has Gore at #5?
Franco,Lux,Robert,Rutschman,Gore.
#64 · January 27, 2020, 7:46 am
Has Gabe Arias at #94! (X Edwards at #95)
#65 · January 27, 2020, 5:57 pm
Quote from LynchMob on January 27, 2020, 7:46 amHas Gabe Arias at #94! (X Edwards at #95)
Padres have the most on their list (7), so still going strong after the graduations of Tatis and Paddack.
5 Gore
15 Patino
33 Abrams
67 Campusano
69 Trammell
75 Morejon
94 Arias
Except for Trammell ... a very young group (and Trammel is not "old") so early in their development progression ... that is encouraging.
Plus in critical positons .... 3 SP ... 1 C .. 2 SS ... 1 CF and the position players have good hitting projections (not those "if they can learn to hit" types). All capable of having careers in those positions and are athletic enough to move to other positions with their hitting projections.
#66 · February 26, 2020, 11:06 pm
Finally finished my system ranking a few days before ST games started. I dislike the “service time” disqualifier for prospects, so I use playing time: >100 AB position players, 10 starts or 50 IP for “SP”, 30 games or 35 IP for “RP” = graduated. I tend to favor production over potential, TRY not to over-rate Lake Elsinore hitters & Ft Wayne P’s, and try not to under-rate injured players.
I also included all traded prospects to date in my rankings AND the technically graduated Rule 5 selections still in the system, to try to establish their relative value. I believe there is a talent gap after top 7 & top 18 prospects, but after that the system’s phenomenal depth takes over, and there’s not a huge variation between #20 & #50.
Last season there was also a perceived talent gap after the “consensus” top 17 (in order): Tatis, Gore, Urias, Mejia, Paddack, Morejon, Patino, L. Allen, Baez, Naylor, Potts, Weathers, Espinoza, Quantrill, Ornelas, X. Edwards, Nix. Despite: 6 graduations, 1 trade (L. Allen), 2 seasons lost to injury, 1 very poor season (Ornelas), & 3 more graduations further down system in low 30’s; the depth of the system “rose up” with 2 of last year’s “20-30 range” guys now in the top 10 & another 3 in the top 18.
And they aren’t just “moving up b/c they have to”. Baseball America has Padres #2 system in MLB behind Rays (I would put them #3 behind LAD now after + Graterol, - 2 prospects to Boston). MLB.com likely to have them in top 3 systems soon too.
I’ll list “Tier 1” guys to #18 here, and “Tier 2” on a separate post.
1) Gore (Top 5-10 MLB), 2) Trammell, 3) Patino (both Top 25-50 MLB), 4) Abrams, 5) Camupsano, 6) X. Edwards, 7) Morejon (All Top 51-100 MLB), 8) Michel Baez-SP, 9) Gabe Arias-SS, 10) Reggie Lawson-SP (All Top 100-200 MLB).
“11-A”) Luis Torrens-C, 11) Ryan Weathers (L) SP, 12) Andres Munoz RP, 13) Edward Olivares (OF), 14) Joey Cantillo (L) SP, 15) Ronald Bolanos SP, 16) Owen Miller SS/2B, 17) Jake Cronenworth (L) SS/2B, 18) Hudson Potts 3B.
Haven’t seen Gore ranked < #5 MLB Nationally, so technically I’m conservative. His rise is why I ranked him #1 over Tatis two years ago; more convinced he would wind up here at that time. I’m relative to average 20 spots high on Trammell, and low on Patino. Think Trammell’s ability & work ethic & swing changes will make him a “late bloomer” stud. I’ve chronically been lower on Patino last 12-18 months due to his stature, but his ability is impossible to deny. Also 20-25 spots low on Abrams; need to see him in full season ball before going higher, but if top 3 graduate he should be Pads #1 prospect next year, and performance anything close to last year would cement him in top 25 MLB. I’m about in line with consensus on Campusano, X. Edwards (who clearly looks like he “would have been” Padres consensus 6th best prospect overall), & Morejon. Morejon’s gotten a long leash in top 100 with his ability, but failure to stay healthy &/or mediocre results in 2020 will send him plunging next year.
Baez has been top 100, and Arias & Lawson just feel like they are headed that way. This is my 2nd year relatively high on Baez, but the deep MLB bullpen now allows Pads to give he & Morejon the development/IP they desperately need as SP. The clock is ticking with Baez due to age, but even the small chance he could breakout as a true front of rotation starter justifies the ranking. Arias is now the darling of ST (wasn’t even invited when I did this) & a clear riser. I’ve been high on Lawson last year+, and put him this high due to his strong showing in Arizona Fall League in a tiny sample size. That success makes me wonder where he’d rank if he’d been healthy all year.
I think Luis Torrens is extremely underrated, largely b/c the Rule 5 selections are not really considered as “prospects”, when they really are. But in his case, also because of the top 100 MLB Mejia, now Campusano. When I look at the #11-18 group, most may have higher ceilings, but the only guy with a higher floor is probably Munoz. Torrens was briefly a top 10 C prospect in MLB with NYY before injuries derailed his development path. Enter the Padres controversial selection of him in R5, and his last 2 full years of development could not have gone better. If Campusano puts up Torrens’ offensive #’s from last year, he will be a consensus top 50 MLB or higher. Torrens looks like as close to a lock as possible for a “prospect” for his floor of a good MLB backup C.
Weathers in April looked like top 100 MLB prospect ranking he held, but post injury out of shape Weathers would skew towards bottom of top 30. Giving him & his pedigree some benefit of doubt. What shape he shows up in ST will be telling. Munoz under my threshold for prospect; can’t rank him any lower than this despite strictly RP. Potential dominant late inning guy if he can get to average control/command. I really like Olivares as a sneaky late bloomer. COULD be a starter, but safely looks like a good CF capable 4th OF; door of opportunity really opened with trade of Margot. I’m relatively low on Cantillo (Madfriars have him consensus top 10). I will join the top 10 party if he replicates the success in much less P friendly Elsinore. Concerned his FB gets pounded there. Bolanos just feels like a guy who we will see as a SP in MLB for the next 5-6 years even if not with Padres. I’m a little low on Owen Miller too; dinged he & Hudson Potts for poor showings in Arizona Fall League. Considered putting Cronenworth > Miller, but Miller’s youth & career body of work are more favorable. “J.C.” has to prove last year wasn’t a flash in the pan, but his LH bat & better arm at SS are in his favor relative to Miller. Both likely to appear in MLB this year, and either one could be the starting 2B as soon as this, but more likely next, season.
I think Hudson Potts is the poster child for a guy whose development has been rushed unnecessarily. Of course, 12 months ago, 3B was a monster glaring hole for SD…. But that shouldn’t factor into the minors development of a High School player with contact issues. Potts is entering his 2nd Spring Training, has gone to AFL twice, and near certain to head to AA for 2nd full season… and is not close to MLB ready. It seems fair to question what the point of the “push” was. Top 50 MLB prospects Urias & Mejia struggled initially in MLB, and Potts’ hit tool nowhere near theirs. Guys in the #1-3 overall MLB prospect range who come in & produce > league average are so rare, I don’t understand the rationale to “push” position players to MLB quickly? Especially if they are HS draftees AND might change positions. Potts (& maybe Cuban P’s) may be the most “make or break” prospect this season. For Baez (age) & Morejon (injury/durability issues) with the massive SP quality/depth, it’s justified, but for Potts at his age, the pressure just seems ‘artificial’; if he were coming off 1 bad AFL season after a strong showing at High-A & heading to AA now, feels like he’d be where he “should”?
#67 · February 26, 2020, 11:11 pm
Continuing Farm ranking… Tier 2 = #19 -#“50”
19-25: 19) Hudson Head (L) CF, 20) Blake Hunt C, “21-A”) Allen Cordoba UTIL, 21) Jeisson Rosario (L) CF, 22) Tucupita Marcano (L) 2B, 23) Joshua Mears OF, 24) Logan Driscoll (L) C/OF, 25) Austin Allen (L) C
Head looked every bit like the 1st round pick he essentially was, and simply has the most across the board tools of the remaining prospects. Could easily land in the top 10 next year. Hunt is quietly rising. Teams asking for him in trade is a good indicator of his value. Cordoba had a superior season to guys like Rosario & Esteury Ruiz at the same level; can he make up for lost development time quickly enough to be a factor going forward? The talent is there, but not sure about the field position. Rosario & Marcano both lack power to an alarming degree, but Josh Mears doesn’t! He may take awhile to develop, but the Pads needed some good power prospects. Not many teams could trade away Driscoll AND A. Allen out of their systems and still be overflowing with C talent. I didn’t see how Austin Allen, even at an “ancient” 26 yrs old could fall out of our top 25 with a good year @ AAA given all the graduations in front of him. At least one top 25 ranking is my arbitrary threshold to make it on to the “consensus” top prospect list, so he will be there, even though no longer a Padre.
26-30: 26) Jorge Ona OF, 27) Tirso Ornelas (L) OF, 28) Ismael Mena (L) OF, 29) Reginald Preciado (S) SS, 30) Ivan Castillo (S) 2B/INF
Ona here on the basis of his 7 MM signing bonus & his epic April in AA last year that landed him a 40-man roster spot; could rise dramatically or fall entirely out of rankings again. I’m quite low on Ornelas, but had to punish his simply miserable 2019 where he wound up in AZL for extended time to re-work his swing. To his credit, it appeared the work paid off when he returned to Elsinore. Definitely young enough to bounce back, but not liking the “lumbering” descriptions being thrown around. Felt the two Intl guys > 1 MM had to be included based solely on their bonuses, but it’s Preciado who got the stateside early ST invite over Mena. Kudos to Ben & Marcus for being “savvy” enough to include Ivan Castillo on their rankings! 24 y.o. SH who won Texas League batting crown is an awfully strong “afterthought/camp body”.
31-41: “31-A”) Miguel Diaz RP, 31) Anderson Espinoza RP/SP, 32) Javier Guerra RP, 33) Gerardo Reyes RP, 34) David Bednar RP, 35) Esteury Ruiz 2B/LF, 36) Pedro Avila SP, 37) Jacob Nix SP, 38) Michael Gettys OF, 39) Buddy Reed OF, 40) Esteban Quiroz (L) 2B, 41) Junior Perez OF
Any of the first 5 RHRP’s could ascend to being dominant late inning guys. Diaz flashed dominant stuff immediately in MLB as R5 guy 3 years ago, but clock really ticking on him. Espinoza easily best stuff of all, but SO long out of action, assume being a SP out of the picture. Guerra gets narrow window & not enough development time to “prove it” in MLB as O.D. roster or DFA with no options & very few spots open, but so far, so good. Reyes is just under my “prospect” threshold & was dominant at times in MLB… when not being atrocious. Bednar nearly as hard throwing. Esteury Ruiz has 2 carrying tools: speed & power… And the power didn’t show up last year. Great athlete, but poor defensively at 2B with SO many options pushed him to OF. Young, but must have big bounceback year to avoid falling into the “former prospect” category. Avila looked good in his MLB debut cameo before losing rest of 2019 & now 2020 to injury, now TJ. But did show the ability to compete in MLB. Nix has flashed it too; was “Tier 1” prospect last year @ #17, but his stuff has always been way better than the results he’s posted; simply doesn’t miss bats. Can two OF with "40" at best hit tools make a top 40 list in a very deep, strong system? Yes, when their other 4 tools are ALL Plus, AND their expectations are ratcheted down due to their severe limitations to potentially useful 5th MLB OF. Tough to think of a 28 y.o. guy as a “prospect”, but had to include Quiroz who has a non-zero chance of making MLB roster this or (more likely) next year, possibly even as a starting (platooner?) 2B. I tried to keep list to 40, but could not exclude Junior Perez. When looking at his dominant stat line in AZL I noticed he tailed off his last 10 games & had no HR his last 42 AB… which means he hit 11 HR in just 167 AB there; unheard of power for the league while compiling 2nd season of .350 OBP. 6’1” only 165 lbs (so far). Flash in the pan or diamond in the rough?
Also considered (not ranked): Lake Bachar SP, Osvaldo Hernandez (L) SP, Mason Thompson SP, Eguy Rosario 2B, Justin Lopez 3B/INF, Jordy Barley SS, Sean Guilbe 3B, Yeison Santana SS, Luarbert Arias SP
Every guy here was ranked at least #30 on at least 1 list. Lopez, Barley, & L. Arias (two!) each made top 25 lists. At least another 8-10-12 interesting guys… has to be the deepest system in MLB.
#68 · March 5, 2020, 6:07 am
MLBPipeline just issued its 2020 Top 30 rankings for the Padres:
- 3 new names: Quiroz (#23); Guerra (#24); Ona (#28). Bit surprised they did not ID any of the young prospects out of Rookie / DSL beyond the J2 signings of Preciado (#20) and Mena (#22).
- 3 old names dropped: Avila; Thompson; Nix.
- Notable risers:
- Head: #13 up from #20 ... +7
- Arias: #8 up from #13 ... +5
- Cantillo: #10 up from #15 ...+5
- Lawson: #15 up from #20 ... +5
- Notable drops:
- Ornelas: #25 down from #11 ... -14
- Ruiz: #27 down from #18 ... -9
- Potts: #14 down from #10 ... -4
- The bubble guy at #30: Bednar
The others move a bit up or down but probably not statistically significant changes in status.
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LynchMob
#69 · March 5, 2020, 12:18 pm
3 
Keith Law’s prospect rankings: San Diego Padres
The Padres’ system is still strong, but they graduated two of their best prospects last year (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack), and the system has taken some hits from prospects who’ve stalled and from a few surprising trades. They’re still deep, but not as deep as they appeared to be a year ago.
#70 · March 6, 2020, 1:28 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on February 26, 2020, 11:06 pmFinally finished my system ranking a few days before ST games started. I dislike the “service time” disqualifier for prospects, so I use playing time: >100 AB position players, 10 starts or 50 IP for “SP”, 30 games or 35 IP for “RP” = graduated. I tend to favor production over potential, TRY not to over-rate Lake Elsinore hitters & Ft Wayne P’s, and try not to under-rate injured players.
I also included all traded prospects to date in my rankings AND the technically graduated Rule 5 selections still in the system, to try to establish their relative value. I believe there is a talent gap after top 7 & top 18 prospects, but after that the system’s phenomenal depth takes over, and there’s not a huge variation between #20 & #50.
Last season there was also a perceived talent gap after the “consensus” top 17 (in order): Tatis, Gore, Urias, Mejia, Paddack, Morejon, Patino, L. Allen, Baez, Naylor, Potts, Weathers, Espinoza, Quantrill, Ornelas, X. Edwards, Nix. Despite: 6 graduations, 1 trade (L. Allen), 2 seasons lost to injury, 1 very poor season (Ornelas), & 3 more graduations further down system in low 30’s; the depth of the system “rose up” with 2 of last year’s “20-30 range” guys now in the top 10 & another 3 in the top 18.
And they aren’t just “moving up b/c they have to”. Baseball America has Padres #2 system in MLB behind Rays (I would put them #3 behind LAD now after + Graterol, - 2 prospects to Boston). MLB.com likely to have them in top 3 systems soon too.
I’ll list “Tier 1” guys to #18 here, and “Tier 2” on a separate post.
1) Gore (Top 5-10 MLB), 2) Trammell, 3) Patino (both Top 25-50 MLB), 4) Abrams, 5) Camupsano, 6) X. Edwards, 7) Morejon (All Top 51-100 MLB), 8) Michel Baez-SP, 9) Gabe Arias-SS, 10) Reggie Lawson-SP (All Top 100-200 MLB).
“11-A”) Luis Torrens-C, 11) Ryan Weathers (L) SP, 12) Andres Munoz RP, 13) Edward Olivares (OF), 14) Joey Cantillo (L) SP, 15) Ronald Bolanos SP, 16) Owen Miller SS/2B, 17) Jake Cronenworth (L) SS/2B, 18) Hudson Potts 3B.
Haven’t seen Gore ranked < #5 MLB Nationally, so technically I’m conservative. His rise is why I ranked him #1 over Tatis two years ago; more convinced he would wind up here at that time. I’m relative to average 20 spots high on Trammell, and low on Patino. Think Trammell’s ability & work ethic & swing changes will make him a “late bloomer” stud. I’ve chronically been lower on Patino last 12-18 months due to his stature, but his ability is impossible to deny. Also 20-25 spots low on Abrams; need to see him in full season ball before going higher, but if top 3 graduate he should be Pads #1 prospect next year, and performance anything close to last year would cement him in top 25 MLB. I’m about in line with consensus on Campusano, X. Edwards (who clearly looks like he “would have been” Padres consensus 6th best prospect overall), & Morejon. Morejon’s gotten a long leash in top 100 with his ability, but failure to stay healthy &/or mediocre results in 2020 will send him plunging next year.
Baez has been top 100, and Arias & Lawson just feel like they are headed that way. This is my 2nd year relatively high on Baez, but the deep MLB bullpen now allows Pads to give he & Morejon the development/IP they desperately need as SP. The clock is ticking with Baez due to age, but even the small chance he could breakout as a true front of rotation starter justifies the ranking. Arias is now the darling of ST (wasn’t even invited when I did this) & a clear riser. I’ve been high on Lawson last year+, and put him this high due to his strong showing in Arizona Fall League in a tiny sample size. That success makes me wonder where he’d rank if he’d been healthy all year.
I think Luis Torrens is extremely underrated, largely b/c the Rule 5 selections are not really considered as “prospects”, when they really are. But in his case, also because of the top 100 MLB Mejia, now Campusano. When I look at the #11-18 group, most may have higher ceilings, but the only guy with a higher floor is probably Munoz. Torrens was briefly a top 10 C prospect in MLB with NYY before injuries derailed his development path. Enter the Padres controversial selection of him in R5, and his last 2 full years of development could not have gone better. If Campusano puts up Torrens’ offensive #’s from last year, he will be a consensus top 50 MLB or higher. Torrens looks like as close to a lock as possible for a “prospect” for his floor of a good MLB backup C.
Weathers in April looked like top 100 MLB prospect ranking he held, but post injury out of shape Weathers would skew towards bottom of top 30. Giving him & his pedigree some benefit of doubt. What shape he shows up in ST will be telling. Munoz under my threshold for prospect; can’t rank him any lower than this despite strictly RP. Potential dominant late inning guy if he can get to average control/command. I really like Olivares as a sneaky late bloomer. COULD be a starter, but safely looks like a good CF capable 4th OF; door of opportunity really opened with trade of Margot. I’m relatively low on Cantillo (Madfriars have him consensus top 10). I will join the top 10 party if he replicates the success in much less P friendly Elsinore. Concerned his FB gets pounded there. Bolanos just feels like a guy who we will see as a SP in MLB for the next 5-6 years even if not with Padres. I’m a little low on Owen Miller too; dinged he & Hudson Potts for poor showings in Arizona Fall League. Considered putting Cronenworth > Miller, but Miller’s youth & career body of work are more favorable. “J.C.” has to prove last year wasn’t a flash in the pan, but his LH bat & better arm at SS are in his favor relative to Miller. Both likely to appear in MLB this year, and either one could be the starting 2B as soon as this, but more likely next, season.
I think Hudson Potts is the poster child for a guy whose development has been rushed unnecessarily. Of course, 12 months ago, 3B was a monster glaring hole for SD…. But that shouldn’t factor into the minors development of a High School player with contact issues. Potts is entering his 2nd Spring Training, has gone to AFL twice, and near certain to head to AA for 2nd full season… and is not close to MLB ready. It seems fair to question what the point of the “push” was. Top 50 MLB prospects Urias & Mejia struggled initially in MLB, and Potts’ hit tool nowhere near theirs. Guys in the #1-3 overall MLB prospect range who come in & produce > league average are so rare, I don’t understand the rationale to “push” position players to MLB quickly? Especially if they are HS draftees AND might change positions. Potts (& maybe Cuban P’s) may be the most “make or break” prospect this season. For Baez (age) & Morejon (injury/durability issues) with the massive SP quality/depth, it’s justified, but for Potts at his age, the pressure just seems ‘artificial’; if he were coming off 1 bad AFL season after a strong showing at High-A & heading to AA now, feels like he’d be where he “should”?
Brian - meant to comment previously. High quality analysis throughout!
A few specific thoughts:
Torrens - one of the issues that makes valuing him somewhat hard is that he'll use his final option year this year. (Even if he breaks camp, I find it hard to believe they'll carry him the whole year.) That significantly reduces any potential trade value. I also think organizations are going to require multiple really good looks at his work behind the plate to overcome any reports they had from him in the 2018 season at Elsinore where he was Just. So. Bad. in both performance and effort behind the plate.
In your analysis of Miller/Cronenworth, just a reminder that Cronenworth is already on the 40-man, while Miller wouldn't have to be next winter if he doesn't get added during this season. He's going to have to be REALLY good and have many things go wrong elsewhere on the infield for the team to consider losing that roster flexibility by giving him a big league role in 2020.
I suspect (just that, haven't had an in-depth conversation with decision-makers) that the decision to get Potts to a place where his approach would fail was an intentional one and their hope was that it would fuel/force changes. (To some extent, the same with pushing Tirso up to Elsinore last year too.)
Preciado has clearly created some separation from Mena at this point, signing bonuses not withstanding. (I'd guess that had Preciado been in Venezuela or the DR, his bonus would have easily been double,)
Gettys has a long way to go to get to a 40 hit tool.
Junior Perez is a good reminder that listed/signing weights for international 16-year-olds are all disconnected from reality. He was at least 180 last year.
Again, strong work and thought on this.