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Strasburg

The thing with Stras or Cole or Wheeler or MadBum.. is you got 1 of 5 spots done for 4+ yrs... say its Wheeler (5/110) + Paddack + Gore + Patino + Lamet come 2021... that is a WS caliber 1-5 if Paddack + Lamet keep progressing and Patino and Gore are as advertized..and we are going to have basically those 5 for 5+ yrs together (if indeed they are as good as advertized and/or take the necessary steps to be that good)... So what I am getting at is a 1,2 or solid 3 makes this rotation very very good.. Obviously in 20 we also have Richards.. but looking at this INVESTMENT we could be making in FA now-- it could set us up for a nice 5+ yr window of serious competiveness

This one of the reasons that I would like to see them target Hammels for 2 years. I like the post season pedigree, he pitched fine last year and he's local (more a fan thing than player most of the time).

I'd be fired up for Stras, but I like Gray as a more realistic option. Luchessi, Renfroe, Cantillo for Gray and Dahl. Sweeten offer with Hunt maybe? Risk of regression to mean about equal on all sides with COL having upside plays that are not too risky.

Quote from Commie on November 14, 2019, 6:47 pm

This one of the reasons that I would like to see them target Hammels for 2 years. I like the post season pedigree, he pitched fine last year and he's local (more a fan thing than player most of the time).

I'd be fired up for Stras, but I like Gray as a more realistic option. Luchessi, Renfroe, Cantillo for Gray and Dahl. Sweeten offer with Hunt maybe? Risk of regression to mean about equal on all sides with COL having upside plays that are not too risky.

Gray maybe an interesting option, although his is a MLB anomaly that actually pitches better in Coors Field than he does on the road. However, those differences are slight.

Dahl, is a total product of his home park. I would pass on a .250BA/.303OBP away from Coors Field.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 14, 2019, 6:16 pm

The thing with Stras or Cole or Wheeler or MadBum.. is you got 1 of 5 spots done for 4+ yrs... say its Wheeler (5/110) + Paddack + Gore + Patino + Lamet come 2021... that is a WS caliber 1-5 if Paddack + Lamet keep progressing and Patino and Gore are as advertized..and we are going to have basically those 5 for 5+ yrs together (if indeed they are as good as advertized and/or take the necessary steps to be that good)... So what I am getting at is a 1,2 or solid 3 makes this rotation very very good.. Obviously in 20 we also have Richards.. but looking at this INVESTMENT we could be making in FA now-- it could set us up for a nice 5+ yr window of serious competiveness

YESSS!  That is THE thing... won't be a need to add SP, especially at the top, for however long THIS contract is.  Ultra RARE opportunity to have a set rotation under CHEAP control for years to come, with extremely good depth on top of that.   The depth is important, because it will allow the Pads to ride out injury over the years.  The key is that the FA HAS to be good enough to be 1 of the 5 best SP for life of the contract; and those 5 are likely to keep getting better for the next 2-3 years.... THAT is why it's an even bigger risk/potential $ waste to sign a #3/4 guy for less $ & years; the risk that you end up starting him because you "have" to down the road, not because his ability warrants it.

It's possible to trade Myers for MORE $ to offset this contract because signing a SP better than Lucchesi or Lauer allows you to trade one of them in that deal; their value to another team in 2020 is much > than if they remain Padres.  And IMO Myers is by far the best RH OF piece to move simply b/c can save the most $ by doing so, and have to get a LH bat in the lineup somewhere.  Margot & Renfroe are cheaper, better defensively at their position, and have crushed LHP; salaries allow platooning if neccy.

Myers without question has the ability to be worth 20 MM/year; but has just struggled to stay consistent and provide that value over course of a full year.  So if his value is "only" 10 MM/yr or even 8, I think L or L + another good SP prospect gets Pads to place where the other team is covering 40 MM+ of his remaining 60 MM.

I'd rather sign Wheeler for "net" 6/80 MM by trading:  Myers, Lauer, & Bolanos (or even Lucchesi & Baez) than:

Trade for Jon Gray est 2/14 MM but keep Myers 3/60 & have to trade:  Patino + ???  to get him for only 2 years....

same for Syndergaard 2/22 MM....

Near same amount of $ spent; but for different MLB asset mix.  Having to include better SP long range prospect in the trade FOR a SP makes it harder to turn around & include ANOTHER SP in the Myers trade out.  Also in 2 years you lose Gray/Thor, and no longer have Patino to step into his shoes.  Of course, "could" dump Myers alone for less, but I think attaching an MLB SP + a near MLP ready SP prospect really boosts the trade value.  Also, would not just dump Myers if no real plan to utilize the $; and there's no efficient way to spend it on position player FA's

I don't think we should trade Patino for anyone. He is what we need to make a great future rotation. We have the prospects to have an amazing rotation, but not for a year or two. We can have a young, great, CHEAP rotation if we hold on to all of our big prospects. We can only afford a FEW high priced guys on the team. We already have 2, and even that is assuming we can get rid of Myers.

I am all for trading Myers. Use some of our good prospects that aren't expected to be a major part of our future. Lauer, Lucchesie, just about anyone outside of our top 7 that is needed to get rid of Myers contract. But that's it. Keep most of our prospects and sign a lower cost OF or two. We cannot build our team by buying free agents. We are not the Yankees. We cannot do it through trades either. We do not need to trade for 2B or C. Talent runs out extremely quickly in trades. If we make a trade, we should only make one to fill a major hole like OF, which we actually desperately need. To have a team that ownership can actually afford, we have to build it with prospects.

J135, I agree with most of what you said. The key for SDs long term success is building within and fielding a team of mostly home grown players, getting you that long term, inexpensive talent. My one exception to your post is, not all of our prospects are going to succeed. And that is where the magic 8 ball comes into play, knowing which ones are going to be good/great. And knowing which ones to sell high on before they fizzle away.

I think it is short sided to think that all 3 of Paddock, Gore, and Patino will all be top ML pitchers. Odds will tell you that is nearly impossible. So SD needs to figure out which one is going to fizzle and use his "dollars" prior to the fizz out to help the team now. RHP are easier to find than LHP, and Paddock has already produced in the ML, Gore is LH, thats why I think Patino might be the one that is used to help rid of us of Myers contract. And then we can re deploy the Myers money towards other necessities on the team.

Of course I could be dead wrong and all three pan out and become what we hope them to become, and then a Patino trade will really hurt. But I think I take that chance to rid myself of that albatross of a contract of Myers.

You're leaving off Lamet who may be the best of the lot.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/11/14/20957997/san-diego-padres-stephen-strasburg-chris-paddack-dinelson-lamet-sale-bauer-hill-bumgarner

 

I know we all think Gore and Patino are future Cy Young winners....at least we hope...but of course there is still

doubt until they actually get here and do it.

Many....MANY top pitching prospects cruise through the Minors only to fizzle at the highest level.

I'm not predicting that "of course".

But a guy like Lamet or Paddack,who have "already shown" the ability to dominate ML hitters,

to me have to be put ahead of even someone like Gore.

BTW I agree...that for AJ to add enough offense,and if he plans to add a Starter,Patino(among others;Morejon/Q/Weathers) will probably be traded.

Teams are gonna ask for Gore and Abrams....AJ is gonna have to give in with Patino instead I'm afraid.

 

 

Quote from David Nevin on November 15, 2019, 6:30 am

I know we all think Gore and Patino are future Cy Young winners....at least we hope...but of course there is still

doubt until they actually get here and do it.

Many....MANY top pitching prospects cruise through the Minors only to fizzle at the highest level.

I'm not predicting that "of course".

But a guy like Lamet or Paddack,who have "already shown" the ability to dominate ML hitters,

to me have to be put ahead of even someone like Gore.

BTW I agree...that for AJ to add enough offense,and if he plans to add a Starter,Patino(among others;Morejon/Q/Weathers) will probably be traded.

Teams are gonna ask for Gore and Abrams....AJ is gonna have to give in with Patino instead I'm afraid.

 

 

Yup teams going to ask for Gore and CJ.. And AJP is going to counter with Patino + Edwards .for stud 3-4 yrs xontrollable guys like Meado ws .. I think a Benintendi doesn't get Patino ..maybe Edwards ..same with a Comforto although I see a Renfroe + Bolanos type deal for Comforto + lotto tixket

By the way .. MadBum meeting with AJP in SD today.. Get it done Pads!