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Strasburg

With MLBTR 'confirming' that SD is going after Strasburg, I thought the subject deserved it's own thread.

Besides being his hometown, I think the Padres have a built in advantage to get Strasburg:  an expensive contract they are extremely well-positioned to dump....

  • Sign Strasburg for: 6/175 MM:  25/35/30 x 3/25  The first year between salary & signing bonus would ideally max out at around 25 MM.  2nd year could increase by 10 MM; mostly by using G. Richards’ 8.5 MM coming off the books in 2021; then 30 MM /yr x 3 before 25 MM the last yr.
  • Trade to the highest bidder (willing to absorb most $) this package: Wil Myers, Joey Lucchesi, either Michel Baez OR Ronald Bolanos OR Reggie Lawson.   I believe at least one team would be willing to pay at least 45 MM over 3 years for this package of players, assuming next to nothing back to Padres (short season guy or maybe DFA type RP off their 40-man).

If Myers is worth 10 MM /yr, this is getting a 4 yr control established MLB LHSP, and upside near MLB ready 6 yr control potential MLB SP for “only” 15 MM.  Padres can “afford” to “sell” Joey + 1 SP due to upgrading at the position and extreme quality & quantity of depth:  Lucchesi looks like the Opening Day #5 SP in 2020 even with Strasburg & G. Richards, but he is well behind Gore, Patino, and Morejon in terms of short & long term potential.  Another decent & healthy year in 2020 will make him a significant Arbitration expense in 2021 that Pads can’t afford; the time to trade him is NOW… but only if an upgrade made to SP.

  • SUMMARY: “NET” contract works out to 6 / 130 or < 22 MM/yr for gaining hometown ACE SP undisputed #1 SP World Series hero .  Massive upgrade over #4-5 MLB SP Lucchesi.  Lose Myers, but that unlocks a corner OF position for a LH hitter to better balance lineup.  Despite Top 30 / “50” / & “100” prospect potential of Trammell / Cordero / & Naylor respectively, losing Myers (and Jankowski) probably makes getting a LH OF – preferably CF capable--via FA or Trade a “Must”.  Also give up a SP prospect that is the Pads #10-15 best SP in MLB & system (#10-20 ranked prospect in Pads still strong system).
  • Subsequent post to address cash flow / payroll going forward....

Obviously AJ will start with a lower offer because Boras will play games to drive up the price and we will need some space to improve our offer. I can see us maybe maxing out at 6-$180,000,000 for his contract. I am just not sure about making him our big pickup this year. If we get him I don't think our payroll can go up any more at all. I think we can pick up more wins with less money if we spent it on our outfield. But I digress.

As far as the Myers trade, I think we may have to throw another low level prospect in there. I would truly hate to lose Michel Baez at this point. I am truly loving his fastball and improved changeup coming out of the bullpen. I think he could be a very good piece for us. But that is how a good trade is supposed to work I guess. It is supposed to hurt.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 5, 2019, 12:12 pm

Obviously AJ will start with a lower offer because Boras will play games to drive up the price and we will need some space to improve our offer. I can see us maybe maxing out at 6-$180,000,000 for his contract. I am just not sure about making him our big pickup this year. If we get him I don't think our payroll can go up any more at all. I think we can pick up more wins with less money if we spent it on our outfield. But I digress.

As far as the Myers trade, I think we may have to throw another low level prospect in there. I would truly hate to lose Michel Baez at this point. I am truly loving his fastball and improved changeup coming out of the bullpen. I think he could be a very good piece for us. But that is how a good trade is supposed to work I guess. It is supposed to hurt.

Yeah, I was originally hoping 5/150 for Stras, but really think his season & esp playoff performance literally got him an extra year & a total of +50 MM....  a 5 year deal even at 160 would be easier to offset with Myers' contract, but think MLBTR is right & he's going to get that 6th year.

I hear you on Baez; I REALLY like him, and even with our SP depth would continue to work him there... still think there's upside beyond ex. Lucchesi as SP; but have to admit the path to that is shrinking.  I think the "value" is in cheap good near MLB ready SP; I proposed like Ty France awhile back & people pegged his worth @ 1 MM.  Debate-able if it's that low, but doesn't move the needle at all.  Probably same for even better prospects like Owen Miller or Hudson Potts.  Wouldn't go "up" to Campusano or Gabe Arias... but we have SP to spare

Apologies if this was posted elsewhere ... seems a fit here ...

https://www.mlb.com/news/padres-could-make-stephen-strasburg-even-better

Any help we can get.

Payroll/Cash Flow ramifications of signing Strasburg 6/175:  25/35/30/30/30/25 while trading away Myers leaving 3/15:  5/5/5 Pads responsibility:

Every year there are 2 types of $$ that come “off the books”:  1) Dead $ paid to players who were not on roster/in system the prior year.  2)  $ “no longer” being paid to guys who were on roster/in system prior yr.

SUMMARY:  With extreme quality depth at SP allowing Pads to be “set” at SP for years to come with addition of Strasburg at top, and built in Dead $ + “No longer on team” $ offsetting Arb increases, it looks like Pads Payroll would project from 135 – 150 MM each of next 4 seasons WITH Strasburg.  Likely precludes another Machado/Strasburg mega-signing for next 3-4 years, but not extensions to Tatis & maybe another 15-20 MM/yr level signing if needed.

DETAILS:

2020:  Assumptions:  Yates gets est Arb raise to 6.5 MM (or similar if extended).  Pads re-sign Stammen (or a similar vet RP) in the 3-4 MM range.

Dead $ decrease of 13.5 MM goes exactly to raises to Myers (8.5), Yates (est 3.5), & Richards (1.5)

‘No longer’ $ of 8.5 MM goes exactly to ARB raises to: Renfroe, Hedges, Margot, Lamet, Strahm, Garcia, & Perdomo.

Payroll now = 2019’s 125 MM.  +25 MM Strasburg – 15 MM Myers = 135 MM.   Have to add a LH OF.  Let’s say Corey Dickerson as MLBTR & many here project:  2/15 = +7.5MM = 142 – 143 MM 2020 Payroll

SP:  STRASBURG, G. Richards, Paddak, Lamet, Lauer (L)/Quantrill placehold for:  Gore (L) , Patino

RP:  Yates, “Stammen”, Munoz, Strahm (L), Wingenter, J. Castillo (L), Guerra (L), Perdomo, M. Diaz, G. Reyes, Bednar,

C:    Mejia (S), Hedges, A. Allen (L), Torrens

INF:   Hosmer (L), Urias, Tatis Jr, Machado, Garcia (L), France, Kinsler?

OF:   C. DICKERSON (L), Margot, Renfroe, 2 of 4 (all L):  Cordero, Naylor, Martini, (placehold) Trammell

2021:  Assumptions:  G. Richards leaves as (hopefully Q.O.) FA, Kinsler bought out, “Stammen” or other vet RP bought out.

Dead $ decrease of 9.2 MM mostly Olivera (Kemp) almost all of raise to Strasburg (10).

‘No longer’ $ of 15 MM (G. Richards & Kinsler & “Stammen”) plus 2020 $ of any of these players NOT returning:  goes to Arb raises to:  Renfroe, Hedges, Margot, Lamet, Strahm, Garcia, & Perdomo.  + Possible 1st time Arb raises to:   Miguel Diaz, Cordero, Lauer, & Jose Castillo.

No raise to:  Machado, Hosmer, C. Dickerson.  Possible raise est 2-4 MM to Yates (if extended).

Decrease in Payroll very likely to be > Increase in Payroll….  Est:  135 MM 2021 Payroll with no FA’s

 2022:  Assumptions:  C. Dickerson leaves in FA.

Dead $ hopefully flat (Myers same), BUT

‘No longer $’:  C. Dickerson -7.5 MM, Strasburg salary decrease from 2021 of -5 MM = -12.5 MM minimum (Yates possible FA here)… minimum towards Arb raises…

Likely Increase in Payroll > Decrease …  ROUGH Est:  140 MM adding a good RP to backfill Yates

 2023: 

Dead $:  Myers (finally) off books = -5 MM

‘No longer’ $:  Hosmer’s Salary drops -7 MM if he does not opt out

Will need those savings as this year Tatis (likely already extended, but maybe big $ jump here) & Paddack will hit Arbitration.  But for perspective:  Renfroe & Lamet if both still around will be in their 4th/ last year of Arb; and Hedges, Margot, Strahm, & Perdomo (if any lasted that long) will all hit FA this yr…

Payroll:  ???  VERY ROUGH Est:  150 MM

2024:     Too far ahead to project, but Pads will have “only”:  5/150 to Machado (assuming no opt out), 2/55 to Strasburg, 2/26 to Hosmer, and  likely ?/? to Tatis.  Maybe 300 MM in contract commitments as next wave of talent begins to move into Arb years….

A look at SP next 6 years as our current team/system stands in terms of long term potential...

apologies for columns not lining up... can't figure out formatting.

SP # by LT potential      2020      2021      2022      2023      2024      2025      2026

Machado                        30         30           30          30          30?        30?         30?

Hosmer                          20          20           20          13?         13?         13?         FA

Tatis, Jr.                       Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         FA          xxx

        1. Strasburg   25           35           30           30           30           25           FA
        2. Gore (L)  Debut    Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         A-4
        3. Richards   8.5+       FA           xxx         xxx         xxx         xxx         xxx
        4. Paddack    Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         FA           xxx
        5. Lamet     1.7 est      A-2         A-3         A-4         FA           xxx         xxx
        6. Patino      Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3
        7. Morejon (L) (AA)   Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3
        8. Lucchesi (L) Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         FA           xxx         xxx   TRADE?
        9. Lauer (L)      Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         A-4         FA           xxx
        10. Quantrill     Min        Min        Min        A-1?       A-2         A-3         A-4
        11. Strahm (L)  1.5 est   A-2         A-3         FA           xxx         xxx         xxx          RP?
        12. Baez             Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         FA           RP?  TRADE?
        13. Weathers (L) (A+)   (AA)        Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1
        14. Bolanos      (AA)        Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3
        15. Lawson        (AA)        Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2
        16. Cantillo (L) (A+)        (AA)        Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1
        17. Margevicius (L)(AAA) Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2         A-3         DFA?
        18. Espinoza        TJ #2      (AA)        Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1        DFA?  RP?
        19. Avila             TJ-Yr      Min        Min        Min        Min        A-1         A-2           DFA?
        20. Hernandez (L) (A+)    (AA)      Debut    Min        Min        Min        A-1

 

..... after a 10 hour cooldown period, I'm beginning to accept that Stras' (Boras') price is just too high...

When I originally started this thread, I was going to say 5/150 for Stras ... which minus 45 MM in the Myers/Lucchesi trade  was a "net" of only 5/105 or 22 MM/yr.... but I wondered if Stras might not demand & get a 6th year... which MLBTR ended up projecting also.  So I bumped it up to 6/175; slightly below the MLBTR projection of 6/180 thinking maybe a nominal hometown discount.  Could probably stomach 6/180 as the absolute ceiling.

But Boras is supposedly setting his price @ 6 x 30-34 = 180 - 204 MM... for a 31 yr old SP with a long injury history incl TJ.  Have to agree with SD drawing the line & saying "we're out" at that level.  The tiny barely alive Pads optimist in me wonders if the quick public declaration that "we're out" actually has some leverage by removing 1 of the limited # of teams competing for his services; and his hometown that could conceivably be Stras' personal 1st or 2nd choice?  Just b/c Boras wants to start there doesn't neccly mean he'll actually GET there.

Problem for the Pads is that even if he WILL come down, they can't wait around the whole offseason for this one big move to possibly occur... almost have to move on just for planning purposes.  So I feel a little better than I did this AM, but 2 major issues

  1.  Still don't think it's smart AT ALL to project your payroll  to the rest of the league & their agents.... reminiscent of how biz was conducted in the Moores/Moorad/ KT days.  There's just too many situations where the other GM (trades) or agent (FA) can use the info to extrapolate limitations/needs in ways that are disadvantageous to Pads
  2. REALLY think Wheeler is going to get more expensive than MLBTR's 5/100 projection... peripherals are very strong, and 2 years younger than Stras.   Almost everyone is going to be in on him.  If you try to pre-empt the market with an over the top offer like 5/120, another team will still likely top it.

I am actually starting to come around a little bit on Wheeler. Boars just demands too much to make the top free agents feasible. The sharp decline in Strasburg's velocity this year scares me. And he wants 6 years and $200 million dollars? Just not worth it. I think we should play in the Wheeler/Ryu market. Wheeler can be pretty well counted on for innings at this point, at #2 or good #3 starter value. He is probably the best choice. Ryu can give you anything from ACE to #3 starter value, but comes with a HUGE injury risk. Either way, they will be less money and less years. We can play the waiting game for both, stay strong and not get stupid with the money/contract and hopefully walk away with one. I am hoping for Wheeler at this point. Obviously my expectations have been somewhat lessened at this point.

Agreed on Stras just being too much and likely not worth it. A  TJ history, huge workload and likely going to command 5-7 years...no thanks. I know he’s the local hero everyone wants,  but I don’t think it would be a smart long term investment. I’d stay away from Ryu as well. He’s had an lengthy injury history. From the second tier of FA pitchers Wheeler and Odorizzi both interest me, but I think the FA market isn’t going to be where the Padres make their noise this offseason. I think a Hamels on a one of 2 year deal could be a realistic option for the Padres.