Forum

You need to log in to create posts and topics.

Strasburg

Quote from BoosterSD on November 15, 2019, 5:32 am

J135, I agree with most of what you said. The key for SDs long term success is building within and fielding a team of mostly home grown players, getting you that long term, inexpensive talent. My one exception to your post is, not all of our prospects are going to succeed. And that is where the magic 8 ball comes into play, knowing which ones are going to be good/great. And knowing which ones to sell high on before they fizzle away.

I think it is short sided to think that all 3 of Paddock, Gore, and Patino will all be top ML pitchers. Odds will tell you that is nearly impossible. So SD needs to figure out which one is going to fizzle and use his "dollars" prior to the fizz out to help the team now. RHP are easier to find than LHP, and Paddock has already produced in the ML, Gore is LH, thats why I think Patino might be the one that is used to help rid of us of Myers contract. And then we can re deploy the Myers money towards other necessities on the team.

Of course I could be dead wrong and all three pan out and become what we hope them to become, and then a Patino trade will really hurt. But I think I take that chance to rid myself of that albatross of a contract of Myers.

I think near 0% chance a current top 50 prospect is used this way.  It's just too hard to find talent at that level.  Hard enough to digest ANY player, prospect being attached just for $ savings (didn't do it with Kemp, etc).

As much as I've pushed adding SP to a Myers trade IN CONJUNCTION WITH a major FA SP addition, I would not do this (add SP to trade) if a major FA (15 MM AAV) SP is not signed.... entire concept is that the $ savings is offsetting some of the cost of the new FA b/c the Myers $ is "spent" anyway.

If we don't sign a FA SP, I don't know if I'd trade Myers at all, even just him, because I don't see where/how to spend the $ savings on the position player side.

On the flip side I would be really upset if they dealt either Gore or Patino for any of the flawed, expensive, short term hitters that appears to be potentially on the market (always can come up with names that are not on the market but that is just an exercise).

For me, IF the Padres plan to contended in the playoffs at some point, they will need multiple high end SP ... maybe Gore / Patino fail or maybe one makes it or maybe both succeed .... still can say that about Lamet and maybe even Paddack. Plus they come cheap with 6 years control allowing for bigger money to be spent on offense while the team is actually in contention.

Since I see major improvement for 2020 ... don’t see a viable route to the playoffs with all the holes in the line-up / SP. Those 1-2 year fills are nice but not at the expense of the high ceiling prospects.

If there is a bat the Padres want ... just wait the other team out and see if the drop their demands to accepting the Padres’ next level down players ... depth is the strong point so push that vs. the high ceiling guys. If they don’t deal ... move on.

 

We can only afford a FEW high priced guys on the team. We already have 2, and even that is assuming we can get rid of Myers.

We can take on more than 2 contracts.  Here are our multi-year player contracts.. BOLD = more likely outcome.  Machado & Hosmer have player opt outs.

Machado:  EITHER 4/120  OR 9/270. SEEMS Mega, but 30 y.o. Rendon projected to get 7/235.  Manny will be 31 @ opt out.

Hosmer:   EITHER  3/60 OR 6/99.  3/39 doesn't seem like much, but Hosmer's value is shrinking.

Myers:     EITHER  3/61 OR 4/80.

When looked at this way, it doesn't look that bad.  Especially if you do trade Myers to offset a new FA SP contract.  I believe 1 good SP add should preclude need to add SP in FA for the next 4 years, barring unforeseen trades/injuries, etc.  No dead $ after this year (unless some of Myers).

 

W.O.W....   7/245 = 35 MM AAV.   Some of the $ is deferred, and some teams like Boston with Sale have done so ludicrously into the future (15 years!).... so need that detail... I guess....

But as badly as I wanted one of these 2 "no doubt" guys, this price is just insane by any measure.  It's interesting / weird that even with the "suppressed" FA market of the last 2 years, general desire to avoid luxury tax like the plague, AND a large # of high payroll teams having significant $ limitations (Boston, Houston, Cubs) that the  SP $ has just gone nuts... even though teams are more RP reliant/SP don't go as long as in the past.  Maybe a reaction to the unknown of the "3 batter" rule that is going shift an advantage massively from bullpens to batters?  i.e. 7 IP SP now MUCH > value than 5+ IP SP due to less pen flexibility?

I'm tired & rambling, but I just don't see how you can project 5 WAR/yr @ 7 MM per WAR over the life of a 7 year contract for a 29 year old SP who's already had Tommy John surgery & other injuries... isn’t it literally impossible to come out "ahead" on Stras or Cole at these levels?   Basically paying a monster premium into the future to try to win it all "now" in 2020.

Since Cole is obviously no go, I do have one interesting FA SP idea, which is Ryu....

Let's say NYY or LAA do get Cole; seems likely.

Now let's say any team BUT LAD gets Baumgarner; also seems likely since they're not reported as being "in" on him as many teams are.  But that could change.

....Brings us to Ryu.  LAD have reached out/expressed interest in him coming back; guessing that's his preference.

GIVEN the SP market in AAV, can't we (OK, me) make a pretty good argument that:  it might be worth Pads to even "overpay" a little for Ryu in THIS SPECIFIC SITUATION, because simultaneously subtracting him from the LAD WITH NO COMPARABLE REPLACEMENT FA SP ON THE MARKET!   It seems like going to even 20 MM AAV for 4? might be worth it to add 5 WAR AND subtract 5 WAR from main rival simultaneously...   in his specific situation, it's almost like his age is an advantage, since not going to exceed certainly 4 years!

Might force LAD to overpay for an lesser guy like Keuchel or do a trade they really weren't planning to for a SP?   TONS of teams are going to be in on Ryu, but seems like in this scenario Preller should if nothing else feign interest just to help drive the price up on him 🙂

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 9, 2019, 8:54 pm

GIVEN the SP market in AAV, can't we (OK, me) make a pretty good argument that:  it might be worth Pads to even "overpay" a little for Ryu in THIS SPECIFIC SITUATION, because simultaneously subtracting him from the LAD WITH NO COMPARABLE REPLACEMENT FA SP ON THE MARKET!   It seems like going to even 20 MM AAV for 4? might be worth it to add 5 WAR AND subtract 5 WAR from main rival simultaneously...   in his specific situation, it's almost like his age is an advantage, since not going to exceed certainly 4 years!

Not in anyway should SD make a play for Ryu. He is going to be 33, he is going to want at least $20M a year, and has had 1 really good/almost great season in the last 4. And even last year, his really good/almost great season, he faded in the 2nd half. He is hurt regularly, I dont think he will age well at all, and has to rely on the umpire giving him calls just off the plate, calls he wont get if he is not pitching for LA. And if he is not in LA or if they put in robo umps, then he loses that edge altogether. IMO, Ryu for SD might be a bigger waste of money than Myers.

I hope AJP stays out of the Bumgarner,Ryu bidding and I suspect he will stay out. In this market both will be paid too much and for too long.  I really don’t want to see Bum or Ryu taking up 18-25 million out of the Padres payroll 3 years from now, let alone the likely 4 or 5 years. If they gave the Padres elite innings for 2 years that would be one thing, but I don’t see either as elite guys at this stage. I’d prefer the Padres trade for a shorter term,  reasonable option like Kluber or stay pat with the rotation. Hopefully we hit on Paddack, Gore, Patino and Lamet. Then you can use that money for upgrades to building around a young staff instead of paying an aging pitcher in decline.  If the Padres make a commitment of 3 plus years to a TOR, Sale is the only attainable pitcher I’d risk that kind of commitment. IMO The reward with Sale is much higher and you could be buying elite pitching with him. I believe he will be 35 when his contract ends.

At this point I would stay away from any of the FA pitchers and use 2020 to start integrating the prospects.

Go with: Paddack, Lamet, Davies, Lucchesi, and Richards as the 5 SP

Stage in as needed: Quantrill, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos (on roster)

Position for 2021 (or sooner): Gore, Patino, Lawson (non-roster)

Adding one of the decent FA pitchers will require ... as the market appears to suggest ... will require a 4 year commitment and large dollar outlay. Padres will not bump the LAD in 2020 but the FA pitcher would just drain money and clog up staff blocking the top prospects for years.

Quote from fenn68 on December 10, 2019, 6:34 am

At this point I would stay away from any of the FA pitchers and use 2020 to start integrating the prospects.

Adding one of the decent FA pitchers will require ... as the market appears to suggest ... will require a 4 year commitment and large dollar outlay. Padres will not bump the LAD in 2020 but the FA pitcher would just drain money and clog up staff blocking the top prospects for years.

I think I agree with this as well. SD is already getting maxed on payroll. Even if we are able to all or most of Myers salary, we can start the year with a rotation of Richards, Paddock, Luchessi, Lamet, and Davies and then have the payroll flexibility at the deadline in the summer, based on how the team is performing.

And yes, I do think that IF healthy and performing, that Richards is the Opening Day starter for SD this year. He has the stuff and the ML time to get the nod over Paddock.