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Strasburg

After seeing an article on MLBTR, I tend to think that Hamels will end up in SD. No longer a #1 guy, but still could slot him at #2, behind Richards, and ahead of Paddock.

Richards, Hamels, Paddock, Luchessi, Lamet. We have started a season much worse in past years.

If we mix competition for SP .... total contract risk (AAV and # of years) ... the reported payroll target for the Padres .... guessing Cole - Strasburg - Wheeler - Ryu will be going elsewhere.

The next group is not TOR types now but might give those veteran SP innings while signing on a shorter term deal (1-2 years). That would be good so as not block the Gore - Patino - Morejon wave arriving by 2021.

The reports suggest that Hamels wants to play on a contender but the contenders have something to say about that and, of course, money counts. He does not seem to be holding out for a longer term deal.

Kuechel? .... if the Padres are in that zone of FA ... signing a FA without a Comp Pick is a bit of a plus (although the 3rd pick lost is not critical).

Looking at Statcast, getting even more into Wheeler...  no reason why this same approach of big FA SP signing coupled with trade of Myers + SP + prospect "trade" (i.e. sale/$ dump) can't work with Wheeler, and DOES give more $ flexibility both in future in general due to much lower AAV AND with how the Myers trade is structured.

As I see it, the fundamental underlying issue for Preller/Pads is they are overflowing with trade candidates on MLB & Farm, but you have to know what needs you are filling before setting dominoes in motion (this isn't 2015 where Preller's goal was to just acquire MLB talent anywhere; his job depends on a balanced functional strong 25-man roster).   So how about this:

  1.  Attempt to pre-empt the market with a 24 hr "take it or leave it" deal to Wheeler:  6/120 MM front loaded as:     20/30/25/20/15/10 MM.  Some of the 1st 3 years can be signing bonus.  "Declining" Limited No trade:  15 teams 1st year minus 3/year after that.  + 10 MM 2nd year offset by Richards FA, -5 MM/yr in years 3-6 extremely valuable as roster moves into Arb AND to potentially trade Wheeler down the road.  6/55-60 or 9-10 AAV < Strasburg.  First 3 years offset by significant savings by dealing Myers...
  2.  Alter Myers trade offer to league to:  Myers + Lauer + choice:  Bolanos or Lawson.  Goal:  Save 39 MM.  "Unlocks" corner OF for LH, upgrades rotation, costs #15-20 system prospect (13-14th range best SP on MLB/system depth chart ).  Pads pay 3/21 @ 7 MM/yr to Myers.   "Net" =  6/81 or 13.5 AAV 'new cost' for Wheeler.

Wheeler / Richards / Paddack / Lamet / Lucchesi (L) / Quantrill   SP/RP:  Strahm (L) / Baez  AA:  Gore (L) / Patin0 / Morejon (L) - 2021 / Bolanos or Lawson.

Roughly same but better $ projections going forward than with Stras.  Sign Corey Dickerson.  Maybe Agiyama.  Keep Renfroe, Margot, most other arb guys.  MAYBE trade Hedges, Garcia to trim $.  2020 & 21:  Around 140 MM.

 

I would prefer whatever Starter we add,unless it was Cole or Strasburg of course,it's on a short term deal.

I really don't want to saddle this club with any more 5-8 year deals.

So I guess I would prefer Hamels for 2-3 years over Wheeler for 5-6.

Especially when talking about pitchers.

But I would still prefer to spend our capital($ or prospects) on upgrading the offense.

I think a full season of Paddack-Lamet-Richard-Lucchesi-Quantrill/Lauer would be good enough to make the Playoffs.

Then when you figure Gore and Patino at least being "available" later in the year if necessary and certainly in 2021....I still

just don't see the great need to add a Starter.

I guess you can never have too much pitching as they say.....but if we were to sign a Wheeler or a Odorizzi and then don't have

enough money to improve the offense "enough"....Mr P. won't be a happy camper.

In other words...is the difference between Hamels and Lauer...or Hamels and Quantrill a bigger difference then say between Myers and Ozuna?

Or Margot and Marte?

Or Naylor and Benintendi?

I just don't see a way to add a good enough starter to make a difference....AND add enough offense to make a difference....all while staying under $140 mil.

If AJ pulls it off though it will be some kind of feat......I'm thinking he will see the same issue and have to go to Fowler at some point and talk him into another $15-20 mil and we may end up closer to $160.

Add Wheeler or Odorizzi.

Trade for Haniger AND Benintendi.

Add a secondbaseman....how great would it be to sign Moustakas to play 2b for 2 seasons and be able to hold on to Urias?

 

 

I agree with you Mr. P. An ACE isn't needed to get you to the playoffs. They are only needed to WIN a playoff series. We cannot afford a free agent ACE. Nobody really can. Those contracts will turn into help in their later years. The only efficient way that I see for us to get an ACE is to develop one ourselves. We have the best candidate in baseball for that right now in Gore.

Let's spend whatever we can on offense. Outfield is my vote. Our pitching is good enough to get us to the playoffs. Our offense isn't.

I've been echoing David and Jason's sentiments since Day 1 - spend the money on O. We have too many issues in the OF to waste time on a TOR guy. Gore and Patino are on the way, Paddack is already here.

I'm all for a true Ace but it doesn't look like that is in the cards.

So are we gonna go get another Starter just because?

Even if we get one that's better than Lauer/Lucchesi....is he better "enough" to take the money away from improving the offense?

I'm thinking if Richards stays healthy and pitches well we could extend him after next year for 1-2 more years.

So again,in 2021 we would have Paddack-Lamet-Richards-Gore-Patino-Lucchesi-Quantrill ets.

Of course....I'm thinking if we "do" sign a guy like Hamels/Odorizzi it will be along with losing a few arms in trades for offense.

To get a good enough bat...or two...I'm thinking Patino will have to be included.

Probably looking at losing Patino/Morejon/Weathers/Quantrill.......maybe even Lucchesi or Lauer.

Or some combination.

If that's the case then maybe adding an arm will be necessary.

I guess there's alot to consider and until AJ makes his first couple moves we won't know what his plan is.

I admit I might be "reaching" on Wheeler a little, but think it's imperative to spend some $ on best FA SP possible.... partly because I literally don't see how/where to spend $ on position players?  I think it's extremely likely they deal Myers in a salary dump, and adding a SP would best allow subtracting a MLB SP with value (Lauer or Lucchesi) in that deal, which in turn "offsets" the cost of the new guy.   And I'm in agreement that: A) We DON'T need more than 1 new SP, and B) Not in favor of spending $ on a guy who is a #3-4 SP in 2020/21 (OK if it's later in the contract)

The offense has some built in improvement:  Machado not a new late arrival; more Tatis + Mejia + Urias and no longer rookies;  Subtracting Myers opens an OF corner for a LH with guys in line as possibilities even if we don't add one (highly likely); and finally Hedges (or his replacement) can't hit .176 again... 🙂  There is still room to add help esp if for younger MLB'ers maybe in their arb years by trade.

 

We can spend $ on position players via trade.

 

I'm thinking if Richards stays healthy and pitches well we could extend him after next year for 1-2 more years.

He will be 31 & looking for as big & long of a deal as possible.  Theoretically could be with Pads, but definitely won't be that short unless he doesn't have a good year