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#1191 · October 1, 2019, 9:04 am
Quote from JasonE135 on September 30, 2019, 4:52 pmQuote from WindsorUK on September 30, 2019, 11:44 amQuote from JasonE135 on September 30, 2019, 1:34 amWe traded Hand for Mejia because he was the future at C, and is now the present. If you cannot be happy with our current catching situation then you will never be satisfied. Urias was given half a year. In case you forgot, our second baseman this year was Kinsler. He stunk. We finally put Urias in halfway through. He is hitting now. It just took him some time to get going. Does he only get 200-300AB at the show before he is declared a bust? Gurerro was hitting what, .220-.230 after 200AB this year. Should someone else be brought in to play 3B for them? Urias is our 2B next year. Period. We have tons of starters. We are overflowing. But that also means we have plenty of extra arms that can go in our bullpen. Yes we could use a few more reliable relievers. So could every other team in MLB. Our BP was average. In needs to get better but we are in no way in desperate straits there.
We need OF help. Trammell is coming but we need more. But that's really the only true question we have.
Jason, you are obviously confusing YOUR projections for these young players with what the organisation is actually doing.
Case in point: Fernando Tatis Jr. arrived as our future SS, was pencilled in as such and remained there due to his production. I think we can all agree that he'll remain there for the foreseeable future. No question there.
Mejia's play behind the plate( if reports in the SDUT are to be believed. I've seen Grandal's name mentioned as a stop gap to Campusano )and Urias's inconsistencies at the plate have the team considering other options ( the club seeing if France can play there wasn't for nothing)
You seem to deal in absolutes( always mentioning having to trade Gore if we want to get anything of value in return, for example) but I'm not sure the club is of the same mind set. If there's a way to better themselves, I'm sure AJ and his braintrust will consider it, obviously without trading Gore.
And I don't follow other teams that closely so I'm not sure who the Guerrero guy is your referring to. But I would think if his club noticed something in his 200-300 AB's that worried them, they'd be remiss not to look for other options.
And no-one mentioned desperate straights for the bullpen ( another absolute?). There are QUITE A FEW possible arms for the 5 or 6 possible spots( after Strahm, Quantril, Yates) Who makes the 40 man, who gets released, who still has options, who's on opening day roster. Lots of questions to be answered.
You like to keep mentioning catcher as a need Windsor and saying that the Padres are looking too. Can you show me any articles that show this? Something with actual quotes from AJ, not speculation from the SDUT, because I have seen nothing that mentions that. I know you want a big star at second base. If the team gets one, Urias will not play. If not, Urias will be there. I do not think it is a priority for them. That is my opinion. I have mine and you have yours. I would appreciate it if you would just accept that and not try to talk down to me Windsor. I seriously doubt you have insider information and know more about what the Padres are doing than I do. As for Gore, I don't want to trade him at all. I am just trying to point out what a realistic price would be on the trades that people are suggesting. I keep seeing all of these trade scenarios on here where we get a star for 3 or 4 pieces of garbage. I think that happens once in a decade. I don't think we should count on that. If the team manages to do it over the off season, I will eat my words. I am pretty confident.
I'm sorry Jason, I think you've gotten the wrong impression.
I was just trying to make the point that, as fans, people tend to lose touch with reality, hence the term ( short for fanatic). If posters here wish to think we can swap our rubbish for their treasure, well so be it. I'm fairly sure most of the posters here don't expect the 5 for 1's, it's just wishful thinking.
Since I've not lived stateside in a long time, I'm not privy to the different insiders that , I assume, flood the TV networks on a nightly basis, offering their unique perspective. Hence, the SDUT and MadFriars is where I get 99% of my intimate Padre information.
Not sure where you came up with " big star" for 2nd base? I continue to hope, again, like most of us here, that Urias turns into the player he was in the minors. I'd be happy as hell if he's the opening day guy. Just one less question.
And I love Mejia! Pisses me off that AG( or AJ?) didn't make it clear, at least at some point during the season, that Fransisco was our main guy. Would have sent a message to the entire organisation- you produce, you play!
It's good to have you on the site. We've been a small but hardy group of posters since MadFriars started. Always nice to hear from other Padre fans,even if we sometimes disagree.
#1192 · October 1, 2019, 9:45 am
Jason, 3 Finger you do realize multiple player for 1 trades happen EVERY SINGLE YEAR, right? I mean Henry’s suggestion on Boyd likely isn’t enough. That said, Joey is a young lefty who has proven to be a ML starter with 4 years of control. Arias a young defensive wiz at SS showing hitting skills. Bolanos is a young power arm with 2 good secondary pitches. Those guys are not trash and without a doubt hold trade value. AJP just dealt 3 players for a top 30 prospect who he thinks can be a star. I expect at least one, maybe even 3 or 4 trades this offseason where AJP deals multiple players for one. This narrative that Gore or Patino are the only valuable pieces the Padres have is just plain silly. I guarantee there are numerous organizations drooling over a guy like Arias. Just because some guys aren’t high on MLB pipeline doesn’t mean actual talent evaluators of teams aren’t interested in them. I know the Padres viewed Campusano as the the catcher of the future even when 3 other catchers were ranked ahead of him by most minor league media outlets. There is a reason the Preller farm system is viewed as a top 2 farm by media and teams around baseball. It’s not just the big names at the top. AJP stacked this farm and now he will be cashing in.
#1193 · October 1, 2019, 10:07 am
Not all deals are at the extreme .... e.g. a lot of rubbish for a star clearly does not fly. However, multiple good pieces for a star can happen. Of course, can't really resolve the projection issue of who is a legit good prospect vs. who is rubbish (evaluators will differ just as fans will differ).
Usually, it is a really bad team moving a star (which adds little to their future) for what they can get ... with uncertainty getting multiple good pieces with upside often sells.
Didn't the Padres deal Kimbrel for Margot, Allen, Asuage, and Guerra .... can debate the quality of those four at the time of the trade vs. now but does reflect a 4 for 1.
For me the key for such a deal is finding a bad / rebuilding team with a player you want. Not offer "rubbish" in volume but legit prospects ... e.g (and depending on the value of who you are trying to get) a lower Top 100 plus plus "just missed" the Top 100 prospects ... then maybe spiced up with some ML talent for immediate value. Since the competition in trades for players are getting ever more reluctant to deal the real blue chip prospects .... that volume of very good players may be the seller's best option. Not sure there is much upside for teams such as Detroit or Pittsburgh holding on to one star (who will be getting every increasing money) while remaining at the bottom of the league. Doubt the fans .. in mass ... are coming to the games if the team is losing and making no effort go get better.
Now none of us or the team player evaluators will agree who is blue chip ... very good prospect ... rubbish and the right combo for the trade target who will also have no consensus as to quality. Sort of why trades are much harder to make in the real world vs. on the internet using only one view of the players.
#1195 · October 1, 2019, 11:55 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 1, 2019, 10:07 amNot all deals are at the extreme .... e.g. a lot of rubbish for a star clearly does not fly. However, multiple good pieces for a star can happen. Of course, can't really resolve the projection issue of who is a legit good prospect vs. who is rubbish (evaluators will differ just as fans will differ).
Usually, it is a really bad team moving a star (which adds little to their future) for what they can get ... with uncertainty getting multiple good pieces with upside often sells.
Didn't the Padres deal Kimbrel for Margot, Allen, Asuage, and Guerra .... can debate the quality of those four at the time of the trade vs. now but does reflect a 4 for 1.
For me the key for such a deal is finding a bad / rebuilding team with a player you want. Not offer "rubbish" in volume but legit prospects ... e.g (and depending on the value of who you are trying to get) a lower Top 100 plus plus "just missed" the Top 100 prospects ... then maybe spiced up with some ML talent for immediate value. Since the competition in trades for players are getting ever more reluctant to deal the real blue chip prospects .... that volume of very good players may be the seller's best option. Not sure there is much upside for teams such as Detroit or Pittsburgh holding on to one star (who will be getting every increasing money) while remaining at the bottom of the league. Doubt the fans .. in mass ... are coming to the games if the team is losing and making no effort go get better.
Now none of us or the team player evaluators will agree who is blue chip ... very good prospect ... rubbish and the right combo for the trade target who will also have no consensus as to quality. Sort of why trades are much harder to make in the real world vs. on the internet using only one view of the players.
You are right fenn. Trades have so many moving parts they are impossible to predict. Yes, we will need to find a desperate team. It will be very unlikely that that team will be the one who has the "perfect piece" for us. Probably not a bona fide star. Which is fine. Those trades are possible and workable. I am fine with that.
I guess I shouldn't be trying to lower people's expectations. Dreams are what put most of us on this site. I apologize if I have been bringing people down.
#1196 · October 1, 2019, 11:56 am
Quote from Cptjack on October 1, 2019, 10:40 amQuote from TatisJr on October 1, 2019, 9:45 amI mean Henry’s suggestion on Boyd likely isn’t enough.
If that trade doesn't get Boyd it's because the Tigers are completely inept and are drastically overvaluing him.
I wouldn’t do that deal for Boyd from the Pads perspective either. I don’t think that much of Boyd. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Arias in next years top 100. Detroit is inept and the rumored asking price for Boyd at deadline was extreme.
#1197 · October 1, 2019, 1:37 pm
Quote from Cptjack on October 1, 2019, 10:40 amQuote from TatisJr on October 1, 2019, 9:45 amI mean Henry’s suggestion on Boyd likely isn’t enough.
If that trade doesn't get Boyd it's because the Tigers are completely inept and are drastically overvaluing him.
Not only do 3 or 4 for 1 trades happen it's my opinion that's exactly what we need to do.
We need to open roster spots.
We need "quality" over quantity.
We don't need small improvements in 4 or 5 places...we need "big" improvements in 1 or 2.
So let's not get Boyd for 1 major leaguer and 3 minor prospects....lets get someone "like" Clevinger(just a name i pulled outta my fantasies) for 2 or 3 really good prospects.
This team is at the point it needs difference makers.....one in the rotation and one in the outfield may be all we need to push this thing to the next level.
#1198 · October 1, 2019, 2:13 pm
Padres need BOTH high upside adds and incremental improvements.
All for dealing multiple pieces for one better piece for the roster ... Padres are in a position to do that and actually need to do some of that.
I would argue tracking both paths is that the likelihood of actually getting multiple top line players is just hard to do ... and that would still leave the Padres with less than optimum players at a number of spot. Even if the nail a upper rotation arm and a top line OF .... still could see incremental improvement in the other 4 OF slots or down the rotation to make the entire 26 man roster better. Separate question should be if the Padres have enough of those really good prospects / ML talent to get that volume of improvements.
#1199 · October 2, 2019, 7:27 am
I guess this should be considered a positive .... although the team record really has not followed (maybe an issue with Green and the analytics department). Using team WAR as the measure:
Offense:
2017 .... 7.0 (30th) ... add Hosmer, then
2018 ... 8.0 (27th) ... add Machado and Tatis (the biggest boost), then
2019 ... 13.4 (19th)
Pitching:
2017 ... 7.9 (27th) ... add Lucchesi, Lauer, and Yates to the pen
2018 ... 12.4 (20th) ... add Paddack
2019 ... 15.5 (14th)
Clearly slower improvement than anyone wants BUT there is improvement that sets the basis for the next jump forward ...maybe.
#1200 · October 2, 2019, 7:43 am
Since stats rarely translate directly into how teams fare with their record ... this comment is no more that a springboard for discussion.
Padres were 14th in pitching and 19th in hitting ... could argue that should propel the Padres to maybe the 16th or 17th best record (not 23rd) and maybe a record just below .500 (note Vegas pre-season had the Padres at 78 wins ... hmmm).
So, maybe an upgraded manager (and a modified relationship with the analytics department) could quickly vault the Padres into the .500 record zone. Then, a couple of key adds ... a full season of Tatis, Urias, Mejia (split with Hedges) and pushing over .500 is a reasonable expectation for Fowler ... maybe not the playoffs but 2020 has the makings of the turnaround year.