Forum
Forum Navigation
Regular Season thread.
#1181 · September 30, 2019, 10:58 am
Quote from fenn68 on September 30, 2019, 10:11 amA team that lost over 90 games for the 4th straight season has to have a lot of questions ... it is how to address those questions ... that is the issue.
Now a team that lost 90+games ... not matter what the home fans want .... just does not have that compelling bank of assets to ship out AND end up with a full array of better players ... sort of the wishful lead to gold / silk purse from a sow's ear plan ... not happening. Padres need to address the most impactful spots to improve and bet on incumbents to perform better in 2020 (and beyond) for the remainder of the slots.
For me that upper rotation starter who can eat innings and a LHH offensive oriented OF are the two to focus on.
Take your gamble on Urias, Mejia, and just accept Myers is not going anywhere from an offense standpoint.
====
Urias ... first impressions are just hard to drop ... but Urias is just 22 and a much heralded prospect with good defense for 2B and consider his ML development:
Jul .... 48 PA ... 097/300/194
Aug ... 91 PA ... 238/330/338
Sep ... 89 PA ... 300/371/425
Even with that bad start (plus a very bad Apr) he still generated a 1.0 WAR. Don't waste assets on finding a "better" 2B (not the most critical of positions) and bet the upside of continued development.
====
Mejia hit 305/355/571 in the second half after he started to get some more regular playing time. He too should be an upside bet. Considering the Padres will need two catchers splitting time (that is the norm in MLB) ... not worth debating Mejia (or probably Hedges) .... Allen does not seem to be pushing his way in and to deal for an upgrade is somewhere between unlikely (find one available) and extremely costly in assets that are needed for that SP / OF upgrade.
=====
Myers is not going anywhere ... and probably shouldn't if the cost to move him is eating his salary and/or giving major trade assets to get the deal done. Assets that should be used for the SP/OF. A long run of frustration with Myers but he does "tease" with a 2nd half of 2019 at 271/332/442 .... that actually makes him the best hitting OF on the Padres in the second half. Bet on him being "average" in 2020 ... focus on the other two OF slots .... move him (if needed) next winter with he is carrying a lower contract liability).
======
IF the Padres want a significant upgrade to the OF and SP, then they must focus their limited quality trade chips toward those improvements ... not waste any on marginal, incremental adjustments.
IF they want to make a major jump in wins in 2020 they need to go big in those two spots AND win on the bets for incumbents developing / performing.
Frankly going to 81-81 (not in playoffs) is an 11 game improvement ... and not out of the question. Going up to 89 wins (MILW's 2nd WC) is a 19 game improvement and a bit more of challenge ... and not likely to happen without those adds at SP/OF. I would guess that even though the prize is a one game play in for a chance for more ... at the point this organization will "overpay" a bit for that chance .. for their own sanity.
However, catching the LAD (106 wins) will require the LAD to collapse .. not expecting that in the near term ... so Padres do have to be judicious in what they give up to improve 2020 so they are still position to challenge the LAD when the return to the pack.
I expect a 10 game 106 to 96 type downgrade for LAD maybe more... I think LAD Kershaw (declining --3.05 ERA in 2019 worst in career-- and likely trending downward (upward)... Hill done, Ryu likely gone (Phils, NYY?)... and likely move Joc in the offseason... so LAD will be very good, but like Boston (2018) not 2019 good...
SDP (even 2019) had they had a deeper, healthier BP and not blown like 12 games in which the pen surrender 1 inning of 3 runs + after Pads were leading after 6 innings... (so basically 12 innings -- it happened like 16 times but i'll give us 4 :it happens" moments)... 82-80 would have been our record.... despite having what 3 SP 3-4-5caliber in 2019... Paddack/Lamet/Joey.. no 1 and no 2 (at least 2019 performance 1 or 2, sure Paddack can be that in the future, maybe Lamet too)... So if we add a TOR or even a Noah or Boyd (solid #2's) to the equation-- stop employing AAA/backups roster France, Bream, Jank, Martini, Allen,Garcia and avoid Kinsler starting at 2B for 1/3 of the season... not to mention employing a C that can OPS > .800 60% of the time, a 2B that can get on base at .350+ and an outerwordly SS that even if he comes down to earth a bit should still be a 6 WAR player over a full season... and Wil .745 OPS (in a dreadful 2019-- but really not to far off career avg) cant possibly be any worse... adjust for increase progression and add a Bat.. and a legit Manager and this team should be able to Win many, many more games in 2020-- 90+ in my opinion... Why didnt I mentioned the BP? Because by adding SP (naturally some SP arms will flow to BP) and Castillo joining Baez, Munoz, Stanmen (yes I think he comes back) and Strahm (full yr increased velo etc) that achilles (2019) bounces back into a strength as well for 2020...
The Future is bright, How Bright? Bright enough that AJP's 3 BIG moves (aka a Manager/TOR or #2 SP/ and a RHP hitting OF (righty or lefty as llong as they hit RHP) will likely put us in the WC1 or WC2 hunt all yr... with more to come as SP Gore/Patino/Cantillo/Weathers gets youthful studs pushing for playing time at the MLB level.. and reinforcements/improvements continue to flow upwards (position pkayer wise) Edwards/Trammell/Campusano/Arias/CJ/etc...
#1182 · September 30, 2019, 11:44 am
Quote from JasonE135 on September 30, 2019, 1:34 amWe traded Hand for Mejia because he was the future at C, and is now the present. If you cannot be happy with our current catching situation then you will never be satisfied. Urias was given half a year. In case you forgot, our second baseman this year was Kinsler. He stunk. We finally put Urias in halfway through. He is hitting now. It just took him some time to get going. Does he only get 200-300AB at the show before he is declared a bust? Gurerro was hitting what, .220-.230 after 200AB this year. Should someone else be brought in to play 3B for them? Urias is our 2B next year. Period. We have tons of starters. We are overflowing. But that also means we have plenty of extra arms that can go in our bullpen. Yes we could use a few more reliable relievers. So could every other team in MLB. Our BP was average. In needs to get better but we are in no way in desperate straits there.
We need OF help. Trammell is coming but we need more. But that's really the only true question we have.
Jason, you are obviously confusing YOUR projections for these young players with what the organisation is actually doing.
Case in point: Fernando Tatis Jr. arrived as our future SS, was pencilled in as such and remained there due to his production. I think we can all agree that he'll remain there for the foreseeable future. No question there.
Mejia's play behind the plate( if reports in the SDUT are to be believed. I've seen Grandal's name mentioned as a stop gap to Campusano )and Urias's inconsistencies at the plate have the team considering other options ( the club seeing if France can play there wasn't for nothing)
You seem to deal in absolutes( always mentioning having to trade Gore if we want to get anything of value in return, for example) but I'm not sure the club is of the same mind set. If there's a way to better themselves, I'm sure AJ and his braintrust will consider it, obviously without trading Gore.
And I don't follow other teams that closely so I'm not sure who the Guerrero guy is your referring to. But I would think if his club noticed something in his 200-300 AB's that worried them, they'd be remiss not to look for other options.
And no-one mentioned desperate straights for the bullpen ( another absolute?). There are QUITE A FEW possible arms for the 5 or 6 possible spots( after Strahm, Quantril, Yates) Who makes the 40 man, who gets released, who still has options, who's on opening day roster. Lots of questions to be answered.
#1183 · September 30, 2019, 12:56 pm
Agree that the LAD will have some drop in wins for all the reasons outlined ... how many TBD. They have not been all that interested in spending big money on FA in recent years so back within striking distance of the others is possible.
No issue with the RP for 2020 ... RP in all of MLB is a disaster as the result of over use leading to burn out / injury and the need to call up not ML quality replacements. Actually, the Padres pen in 2019 was by some measures in the upper half of MLB. RP basically come out of nowhere to be effective and as quickly fade into oblivion. A lot of teams are ruing the day they spend big to sign big name who became ineffective (see COLO). Padres make their bet on Yates supported by some big arms being as good (or better) than average. Not their #1 or #2 need.
=====
I have changed a bit my opinion of dealing for Boyd (LHP) from Detroit. Had a hot start in 2019 and faded in the second half but looking at his "peripherals" ... especially his AWAY xFIP plus his workload ... I could see him holding that AWAY profile (among the better in MLB) and then excelling in the pitcher friendly PETCO. Low cost and, I think 3 control years. 3.5 WAR in 2019. He should be in demand but Detroit is one of the worst teams in baseball with little talent and a so-so farms system. A candidate to trade for a VOLUME of quality prospects over 1 (or 2) elite prospects. A good candidate to want a combo of ML and minor league players. Maybe Boyd is a strong #2 but in SD his stats may actually showcase him as a #1.
Not seeing a deal for Syndergaard since it appears the Mets will first try to make moves to make the playoffs in 2020 ... not really going to happen if they move Syndergaard for anything the Padres could offer (unless the bundle Paddack and Tatis). Word is that the GM is tying to get ownership to take a 2 year look at payroll and add heavy in 2020 knowing that Cespedes and Wright fall off the books in 2021.
#1184 · September 30, 2019, 1:03 pm
With sort of the same logic used with Detroit and Boyd ... beginning to warm to the pursuit of Starling Marte from PITT. Yes a RHH but can hit and play any of the OF slots (currently a CF). 2 years control at $12MM per is workable.
PITT ... worse than the Padres ... should be lured by VOLUME of quality prospects without demanding anyone out of the elite prospects. Mix and match of ML / minor leaguers would work here too.
Really not a lot of OF help (of any real quality) seeming on the market this winter ... more that may be minor incremental than a leap forward. Marte is one of the better ... and more available options.
#1185 · September 30, 2019, 3:29 pm
I like Boyd in a Trade... something like Joey + Arias + Bolanos + Reed for Boyd
and then a (ONE) MadBum/Keuchel/Stras type FA signing -- Stras 5/130? MadBum 4/60? Keuchel 3/47?
as far as OF bat or 2B (upgrade - if AJP doesnt think Urias will be more than slappy 2.0)
OF/ Hanniger / Mancini/Marte/Tucker/Brantley/Springer/Joc/Conforto/Nimmo/Benintendi/Mazara (Platoon)/... my personal favorite Lourdes Gurriel -- cause he can play anywhere LF/SS/2B... and be like those LAD dudes that play like 3-4 positions each... In FA Markakis or Dickerson (platoon) types could be place holders for Trammell
2B really would only want an AS level guy like WHIT or LINDOR (cause think Urias can be like 2.5 WAR dude there)...
#1186 · September 30, 2019, 4:52 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on September 30, 2019, 11:44 amQuote from JasonE135 on September 30, 2019, 1:34 amWe traded Hand for Mejia because he was the future at C, and is now the present. If you cannot be happy with our current catching situation then you will never be satisfied. Urias was given half a year. In case you forgot, our second baseman this year was Kinsler. He stunk. We finally put Urias in halfway through. He is hitting now. It just took him some time to get going. Does he only get 200-300AB at the show before he is declared a bust? Gurerro was hitting what, .220-.230 after 200AB this year. Should someone else be brought in to play 3B for them? Urias is our 2B next year. Period. We have tons of starters. We are overflowing. But that also means we have plenty of extra arms that can go in our bullpen. Yes we could use a few more reliable relievers. So could every other team in MLB. Our BP was average. In needs to get better but we are in no way in desperate straits there.
We need OF help. Trammell is coming but we need more. But that's really the only true question we have.
Jason, you are obviously confusing YOUR projections for these young players with what the organisation is actually doing.
Case in point: Fernando Tatis Jr. arrived as our future SS, was pencilled in as such and remained there due to his production. I think we can all agree that he'll remain there for the foreseeable future. No question there.
Mejia's play behind the plate( if reports in the SDUT are to be believed. I've seen Grandal's name mentioned as a stop gap to Campusano )and Urias's inconsistencies at the plate have the team considering other options ( the club seeing if France can play there wasn't for nothing)
You seem to deal in absolutes( always mentioning having to trade Gore if we want to get anything of value in return, for example) but I'm not sure the club is of the same mind set. If there's a way to better themselves, I'm sure AJ and his braintrust will consider it, obviously without trading Gore.
And I don't follow other teams that closely so I'm not sure who the Guerrero guy is your referring to. But I would think if his club noticed something in his 200-300 AB's that worried them, they'd be remiss not to look for other options.
And no-one mentioned desperate straights for the bullpen ( another absolute?). There are QUITE A FEW possible arms for the 5 or 6 possible spots( after Strahm, Quantril, Yates) Who makes the 40 man, who gets released, who still has options, who's on opening day roster. Lots of questions to be answered.
You like to keep mentioning catcher as a need Windsor and saying that the Padres are looking too. Can you show me any articles that show this? Something with actual quotes from AJ, not speculation from the SDUT, because I have seen nothing that mentions that. I know you want a big star at second base. If the team gets one, Urias will not play. If not, Urias will be there. I do not think it is a priority for them. That is my opinion. I have mine and you have yours. I would appreciate it if you would just accept that and not try to talk down to me Windsor. I seriously doubt you have insider information and know more about what the Padres are doing than I do. As for Gore, I don't want to trade him at all. I am just trying to point out what a realistic price would be on the trades that people are suggesting. I keep seeing all of these trade scenarios on here where we get a star for 3 or 4 pieces of garbage. I think that happens once in a decade. I don't think we should count on that. If the team manages to do it over the off season, I will eat my words. I am pretty confident.
#1187 · September 30, 2019, 6:47 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2019, 3:29 pmI like Boyd in a Trade... something like Joey + Arias + Bolanos + Reed for Boyd
and then a (ONE) MadBum/Keuchel/Stras type FA signing -- Stras 5/130? MadBum 4/60? Keuchel 3/47?
Do not trade for Boyd, he is a one year wonder that fell back to the pack in the 2nd half. He is no better than a #4 on a real team, and is no way better than Richards, Lamet, or Paddock. To be honest, I dont think he is much better than Lauer or Luchessi, and Im not their biggest fans. Not worth any prospects IMO.
How many puss throwing LHSP do you want on SD anyway, we already have two in Lauer and Luchessi. Both MadBum and Keuchel are just getting older, and if you think either are signing for less than $20M per year you are crazy.
There is only one SP FA that makes a difference for SD, and that is Cole. Unless Strasburg opts out, and then I would look at him based on what he wants compared to Cole, but Cole would be the first choice.
#1188 · September 30, 2019, 7:10 pm
Have to agree 100% with you Booster. Boyd may be above average, but he is nothing special. I have never been a fan of either MadBum or Keuchel. They have both shown serious signs of slippage and yet, somehow, they are still viewed as premium pitchers by some.
#1189 · September 30, 2019, 9:15 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2019, 3:29 pmI like Boyd in a Trade... something like Joey + Arias + Bolanos + Reed for Boyd
and then a (ONE) MadBum/Keuchel/Stras type FA signing -- Stras 5/130? MadBum 4/60? Keuchel 3/47?
as far as OF bat or 2B (upgrade - if AJP doesnt think Urias will be more than slappy 2.0)
OF/ Hanniger / Mancini/Marte/Tucker/Brantley/Springer/Joc/Conforto/Nimmo/Benintendi/Mazara (Platoon)/... my personal favorite Lourdes Gurriel -- cause he can play anywhere LF/SS/2B... and be like those LAD dudes that play like 3-4 positions each... In FA Markakis or Dickerson (platoon) types could be place holders for Trammell
2B really would only want an AS level guy like WHIT or LINDOR (cause think Urias can be like 2.5 WAR dude there)...
Just stop....all of your 4 and 5 for 1 trades are just plain stupid
Thank god you're not the GM.....there would be no farm system after you overpaid for garbage
#1190 · September 30, 2019, 9:38 pm
Quote from 3fingersplit on September 30, 2019, 9:15 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on September 30, 2019, 3:29 pmI like Boyd in a Trade... something like Joey + Arias + Bolanos + Reed for Boyd
and then a (ONE) MadBum/Keuchel/Stras type FA signing -- Stras 5/130? MadBum 4/60? Keuchel 3/47?
as far as OF bat or 2B (upgrade - if AJP doesnt think Urias will be more than slappy 2.0)
OF/ Hanniger / Mancini/Marte/Tucker/Brantley/Springer/Joc/Conforto/Nimmo/Benintendi/Mazara (Platoon)/... my personal favorite Lourdes Gurriel -- cause he can play anywhere LF/SS/2B... and be like those LAD dudes that play like 3-4 positions each... In FA Markakis or Dickerson (platoon) types could be place holders for Trammell
2B really would only want an AS level guy like WHIT or LINDOR (cause think Urias can be like 2.5 WAR dude there)...
Just stop....all of your 4 and 5 for 1 trades are just plain stupid
Thank god you're not the GM.....there would be no farm system after you overpaid for garbage
Have to agree. Every fan on every team's blog comes up with these kinds of trades. 4 or 5 of our cast-offs for your "treasure" because ours are at positions of "need" for you. Those trades don't happen.