Quote from JasonE135 on September 19, 2019, 6:24 pm

I really like Q now personally. I would personally pencil him in as a solid future part of our rotation. The problem is that we value our guys far more than any other team does. When you want something from someone else YOU have to convince THEM. To get a worthwhile bat would cost us a lot. More than we would want to pay I think.

Quote from TatisJr on September 19, 2019, 6:30 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on September 19, 2019, 4:39 pm

Do you think Preller failed to offer Morejon, Weathers, Rosario and Arias this trade deadline? He would have happily parted with all 4 in exchange for Thor. The Mets did not want them. You have to trade multiple top 100 prospects to get anything of value. None of those guys are top 100. A trade hurts both sides. If the Mets made that trade their fan base would riot. Those prospects are good. They are not premium.

The Mets ended up not being sellers. They actually proved to be buyers acquiring Stroman. I have no idea what was potentially discussed between AJP and Mets, but just because a deal didn’t happen during the season doesn’t mean there isn’t interest in making a deal in the offseason. If we look at recent deals involving good starters the price hasn’t been that extreme. A year and a half of Stroman didn’t net a top 100 prospect. A year and half of Bauer cost the Reds, TT who was the number 30 prospect, plus expiring Puig and Moss who lands as a 17-20 prospect in Indians farm. Greinke deal netted 1 top 100 prospect in #89 Seth Beer, plus 3 other prospects not in top 100 and didn’t land in AZ’s top ten. Plus AZ had to eat some money on the contract. The reason I think Pads and Mets could still be partners in a Thor deal is because the Mets are a unique trade partner. I think they want to remain competitive in the 2020 and would like to strengthen a weak farm. Being in New York Brodie can’t sell the fan base on dealing Thor for some guys we will see down the road. I think AJP could put together a package that helps in both areas. AJP offers something from a pool of major league guys Renfroe, Margot, Lauer, Joey, Cal and a pool of prospects Edwards, Morejon, Weathers, Baez Cantillo, Rosario, Allen and Arias. I’ve seen Mets fans who thought the starting point last year for a Thor deal was Tatis and Gore, that’s just not realistic. Look at recent trades of pitchers instead of what fans want and it will give you a better view of the trade market.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 19, 2019, 6:39 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on September 19, 2019, 4:25 pm

I agree with you on most of what you have said. I have not heard any talk about a trade of Lauer. I think we still need 6 starters next year, just to start with. Lauer, Lucchesie, Paddack and Quantrill will all be off of innings limits I believe. Richards and Lamet will probably still have them. Gore, Patino and Bolanos can fill in the rest. We will only be able to compete when they are all can be counted on for a full year. It's just that everyone here seems to think it will be easy to get an ace. Nobody trades one for anything less than premium talent. I went on the Mets blog yesterday. They expect to get a prospect AT LEAST as good as Tatis, along with a reliever and another solid prospect. Think Gore, Munoz and Campusano. Is there any starter in the game that would be worth that much to us? Is we didn't get a starter at the deadline we almost surely aren't going to get one this off season. I think we should go with what we have and wait 2 years. Our competitive window doesn't open when everyone we need to rely on are all rookies or second year players.

Just for the record you’re the only one who keeps using the term “Ace”.

I only mentioned getting a starter who was “Clearly better than Lauer and Luchessi”.

That doesn’t have to be a Degrom or a Scherzer.

Trevor Bauer was traded and Marcus Stroman was traded and neither cost anything close to Gore.

Ive only suggested getting a solid #2 or a good #3.

 

Quote from JasonE135 on September 19, 2019, 6:55 pm

Management wants a pitcher to lead the staff. If it's a number 2 or 3, we already have several. We have tons of arms. We don't need more. A TOR is different, but I don't think we really need one of those either. Personally I thought the trade for Stroman was an absolute robbery. For Bauer the Indians got 5 years of a 30-40hr OF in Reyes, a 20-20 OF in Puig, a #5 starter in Allen, plus 2 nobodys. That's not bad.

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 19, 2019, 8:03 pm

Go Big or Go Home

300K....Garrit Cole

Quote from fenn68 on September 20, 2019, 7:59 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on September 19, 2019, 8:03 pm

Go Big or Go Home

300K....Garrit Cole

He should come in under that level ... even with Boras as his agent.

Reports are that he is shooting to top Price's $217MM (the record for a pitcher) and the highest AAV for a pitcher. Probably will. Can do it with a $245MM/7 year deal ($35MM AAV), I think.

From some of the comments ... it seems the length of the deal given he is a pitcher is the harder hurdle. 7 years would cover ages 30-36. Less of an issue (but always an issue) is the AAV.

Going to be a lot of competition ... and some will have deep pockets and payroll space.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 20, 2019, 10:32 am

I think 3finger was just commenting on how Cole just passed 300 strikeouts.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 20, 2019, 11:11 am

Quote from JasonE135 on September 19, 2019, 6:55 pm

Management wants a pitcher to lead the staff. If it's a number 2 or 3, we already have several. We have tons of arms. We don't need more. A TOR is different, but I don't think we really need one of those either. Personally I thought the trade for Stroman was an absolute robbery. For Bauer the Indians got 5 years of a 30-40hr OF in Reyes, a 20-20 OF in Puig, a #5 starter in Allen, plus 2 nobodys. That's not bad.

Do you consider Lauer,Luchessi and Quantrill #2 starters?

Because I don't so a trade for a solid #2 Starter moves everyone else down a spot and makes our #4 and #5 Starters that much better.

That's the point I was trying to make.....I agree we don't need any more starters at their level....we have many.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 20, 2019, 11:25 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2019, 6:17 am

Quote from WindsorUK on September 19, 2019, 4:36 am

Yeah, I just can't see Fowler spending big money( or any for that matter) on an arm.

Stiill, he wants to sign Gerrit Cole, let him

Nice to see our young pitchers having some success here late in the season.

Shame our hitters aren't having any....

Although I don’t see any real indication that the Padres have another $30-35MM to spend on a FA and consider SP lower on the need list for the future than offense, IF the Padres do have that to spend ... maybe some logic can be made for a Cole / Strasburg pursuit ... basically elite SP.

IF the Padres determine that what they need to be legit contenders is a core of All-Star level elite players .... and really can’t find any options to bolster the offense worth the big paycheck .... sign the elite SP and lengthen the SP quality (#1-5) then use the “excess” SP to deal for improved offense. I guess if they construct a Cole - Paddack - Lamet - Gore - Patino rotation down the road: first, that could be totally dominant; and second, given the depth of quality pitching in the system coupled with the other teams’ having a perpetual need for SP ... a lot of trade fodder.

Sort of playing the cards being dealt and if the cards don’t show the quality offensive support they want, then play a different had with pitching.

Of course, need the $30-35MM more ...

YEEESSSSS!  There are SO many reasons this is the way to go:

1. IN SEASON all year in 2019 guess how many Starts were missed by Pads SP.....  One.  It was Matt Strahm who went on 10 day IL for minimum time.  This doesn't count guys who came into the season hurt (Lamet, Richards), or guys in Minors like Avila.   Likelihood of this happening again is slim to none.  "Hoping" 2 of our top 3 SP coming off TJ surgery AND 3 of 3 all at 140, 75, & 12 MLB IP this year are all going to make 32 starts & 200 IP is past Padres payroll on a budget wish/hope thinking.  I don't think it's going to work to put all of these guys on an every 5th day (vs 6th this yr) pattern.
2. Even if our top 3 DID do that, and made the playoffs, you're asking guys like Paddack, Gore, even Lamet to carry a team through the playoffs as #1 option in their 1st-3rd year as SP in MLB against the Coles, Scherzers, etc of the world.  Richards is being called an "Ace"... he's more like a good #2/3 guy who's thrown 28, 76, & 12+/- MLB IP last 3 years.
3. The Pads ARE deep in SP.  Trading for (yes, I called for it) Kluber for 1-2 years @ 18 MM+ is a "cheaper" commitment, but he might only be the 4th-5th best SP on staff being pressured from Minors prospects below, but you would have to play him.  It's actually MORE risk than committing more $/years to a guy where it's a non-issue: Clear top of rotation.
4. A signing of Cole or Strasburg would massively energize the fan base and give the Pads:  Maybe the best 1-5 SP in MLB, an All Star Closer, 4 deep @ MLB C, Hosmer, Urias + competition, Tatis,  Machado, & 8 deep @ MLB OF.  For a payroll in the 155-160 MM range (if really 30-35 MM).  Question marks are basically bullpen behind Yates and the OF, but there's a very good chance a lot of those answers are on the roster/IL (J. Castillo, Munoz, Strahm all year, Franchy Cordero) and/or the still very strong Farm System (Trammell) with at moment 6 top 100 prospects.  Team certainly has Ammo to deal at deadline for whatever they felt missing piece/s are...
5. ... I actually believe Pads could potentially "shoehorn" any FA SP including Strasburg into payroll with a creative deal WITHOUT moving Myers & his 20 MM salary.... except Gerrit Cole.  BUT I'm increasingly thinking a salary dump of Myers that includes a MLB SP and maybe a guy like Austin Allen or Ty France & a prospect like Michel Baez is the way to go.... this would give team way more payroll flexibility either to go after a big fish like Cole/Strasburg, or maybe a "lesser" SP like Hyun-Jin Ryu plus other piece/s like RP.  Even if they didn't sign anyone, could argue that replacing Myers on roster with a RH Nick Martini type (Denorfia!) that HITS LHP to platoon/placehold LF until Edward Olivares arrives in MLB for that role is all they would need.... seems like 2020 Pads would be better minus above plus either: 1) #1 SP, or 2) #3 SP + another player, or 3) Even "no one"... but having payroll space to add at deadline.
6. There is a "trickle down" effect of adding a #1 SP that simply doesn't happen at any other position.  Look at Machado signing vs say Gerrit Cole.  Cole is NOT getting 300 MM as a P with injury risk.  200 MM has historically been the ceiling range for elite SP. But he pushes every other P down 1 spot in rotation, enhancing the Pads chances of winning EVERY game, not just the ones he pitches.  Paddack or Lamet as a #4???  Could win 18 games.   Frees Pads up to deal an Eric Lauer that would help 24 other teams...    Common sense to me screams that you're not going to build a winning club spending 100 MM+ on your position players but hoping the 25 MM total to your entire P staff is enough because of all the young talent.
7. Speaking of Machado...  think he's satisfied & committed rest of his career for "just" the $ & status quo El Cheapo Pads of past?  Pretty sure the "If you sign me, will you be able to sign anyone else?" discussion happened with Fowler, Preller, etc during his FA.  Huge effect on other FA signings too.  Have never really realized the SD discount on open market guys when they should be able to