Forum
Forum Navigation
Pre-2021 Planning
#81 · September 20, 2020, 9:21 am
I don't think Ben was saying that Dominguez would be an infielder, but rather a potentially elite hitter like Tatis and Wander Franco at a relatively early age. Do you think you could trade Gore for a hitter like an Acuna, Soto or Luis Robert right now? You couldn't get Franco for Gore. Also, I don't think it was just a straight up Gore or Patino for Syndergaard prior to his TJ surgery - why would the Mets take a unproven pitcher for an already proven above average pitcher when they are trying to win their division? That reported trade opportunity was probably never seriously considered by the Mets if it even happened at all.
The gist of the dialogue is, if both are equal, is an everyday player worth more than a starting pitcher that goes every five days? That's also the argument you get as to whether pitchers should be considered as MVPs or not. Truly elite hitters are usually recognized early on and generally are less risk than possibly elite pitchers because of the injuries that are more likely to affect pitchers than hitters. When Dominguez starts playing next year, he is projected to zoom to the top of the minor league prospect lists just like Franco and Robert have recently. Just something to consider and debate about but none of that is up to us. There are very few hitters in the minors who are projected to be the #1 prospect in an organization that have never even had a minor league AB. Will Gore really become an ace? Is Dominguez really a generational-type hitter? If both are true, which would be more valuable to a team? Looking down the road 3 or 4 years, what are your strengths and weaknesses in your farm system, what will your everyday line-up look like and what will be your expected financial situation? It all has to be put in context.
#82 · September 20, 2020, 9:55 am
Yeh, I do think the everyday player holds greater value than a starting pitcher .... assuming somewhat similar projections. Back to my loopy logic of why would a team with an elite hitting prospect want to deal him for a less valuable pitching prospect? They are just both still prospects with zero MLB success. Would have to conclude their elite hitting prospect is not that elite and/or the target pitching prospect is that much better as a future MLer.
Just doesn't work in the real world ... with GMs.
====
Side: even tough Adell and Dominguez are not destined to be Padres ... if they were in play it would be for a proven ML talent and when the LAA or NYY are desperate. Have to consider Cleveland could not get one top SD prospect for Clevinger ... top line ML starter ... when the Padres needed him for the playoffs plus two years ... suggest getting a top prospect requires a lot more than just another prospect. Basically the selling team of a prospect can get better, more immediate return value.
====
As for Adell ... he strikes me as that potential "5 tool player" loved by the folks that make projection rankings but has that "if he can hit ML pitching" disclaimer that usually relegates them to being a "nice" ML player but not that elite star. I would be cautious about Adell. Also, Preller in 2017 passed on Adell to draft .... Gore. Might tell you a bit on how Preller view the two.
#83 · September 20, 2020, 12:01 pm
So nobody cares about trying to get Marsh, a trade that actually might be possible? All or nothing? We might actually be able to get Marsh for a price that Preller would be willing to pay. I think the Adell and Dominguez trades that are being discussed are entirely academic since there is no way they will ever happen.
I was not debating hitter versus pitcher value. I was debating Adell or Dominguez versus Gore. Both of those guys remind me of Padres 2009 first round pick #3 overall Donovan Tate. Remember him? A supposed 5-tool CF taken at the very top of the draft. High risk, huge possible reward. I don't personally think Adell will be a star. I see him as more Hunter Renfroe than Fernando Tatis. I do not believe in his hit tool. Dominguez is very much like Tatis, and Tate when he was first drafted. He could become one of the best players in the game someday, he could become a backup OF. He has huge tools but the chances of him actually becoming a star are tiny right now. With what Gore has shown up to this point in the minors he is far more likely to become at least a solid major leaguer and quite possibly a star.
I have seen far, far too many Padres draftees with huge tools end up failing because they cannot hit. Tate, Michael Gettys, Buddy Reed, etc. etc.. I like the new way the Padres are doing things. A guy like Robert Hassell over a guy like Heston Kjerstad. Hitting ability first. Power, speed, defense, everything else second.
#84 · September 20, 2020, 12:27 pm
I would take Marsh of LAA's hands ... and probably would a number of other teams. Back to what LAA wants for 2021 ... and expect that is a quality ML SP since that is their big weakness.
However with Adell hitting (117 AB) a less than inspiring 154/208/256 and the only two legit OF on their 40 man roster being Trout and the oft injured Upton ... not sure they would be all that eager to deal him unless they got that quality SP and a starting OF.
#85 · September 20, 2020, 1:09 pm
Wow, you guys, STOP! We may clinch our first playoff spot in 14 years today & you can't get out of "Trader Preller" mode!!!
You don't trade elite prospects for even other elite prospects (particularly ones batting .154 / .208 /.256 in > 100 MLB AB); you trade them for elite MLB players!!
If discussing which Angels OF for Gore or Patino, forget Adell & Marsh... throw in CJ Abrams and discussion should be around... Mike Trout! Insane, right? ....Is it?
3 top 30 prospects including a top 5, for 1 of the best players in MLB stuck on a terribly underperforming Angels team laden with bloated contracts. Potentially franchise transformative move for them that moves 350 MM off books. Liberate Trout! Start building a young core that's never going to sync at the right time to be good with Trout.
Pads can't afford 35 MM year (likely true no matter what). But Trade Pham or Myers & slide Grisham over.... imagine a top 3 of Trout, Tatis, Machado... likely for "only" 3 years with Machado out when he hits 5. So steep budget in 22-23... but likely nightly sellouts with that big 3 going every day.
Overriding point: Top propects almost never get traded for each other b/c of how badly it can blow up on the GM if wrong. Can go badly with MLB talent too, but way more defensible /logical, less "what if". Urias/Grisham was way more of an exception than a rule.
#86 · September 20, 2020, 3:42 pm
Wow. Forget it. I made the only trade proposal here with any chance of possibly happening and people just have to keep going farther and farther out there! Mr. Connely you tell "us guys" to stop and then you propose a trade for MIKE FREAKING TROUT!?! Lucchesi and a hot young LHP prospect who throws mid-to-high 90s with excellent secondary stuff and is ML ready (for a team who isn't currently fighting for a playoff spot). For Marsh. That could actually happen. Trout, Adell or Dominguez for Gore or Gore++? Put down the pipe.
#87 · September 20, 2020, 11:49 pm
Quote from JasonE135 on September 20, 2020, 3:42 pmWow. Forget it. I made the only trade proposal here with any chance of possibly happening and people just have to keep going farther and farther out there! Mr. Connely you tell "us guys" to stop and then you propose a trade for MIKE FREAKING TROUT!?! Lucchesi and a hot young LHP prospect who throws mid-to-high 90s with excellent secondary stuff and is ML ready (for a team who isn't currently fighting for a playoff spot). For Marsh. That could actually happen. Trout, Adell or Dominguez for Gore or Gore++? Put down the pipe.
LOL... you're missing my point. We're in the playoffs!!! We have a great team already. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try to improve it, or that we won't need OF in the future, but you guys are throwing away pitchers like they're a dime a dozen, and I have no idea at all why anyone is talking about prospect for prospect trades (ESPECIALLY pitching going out) on an elite top 5 range MLB team? One way or another we have a set starting OF for 2021. We really don't need to trade away elite SP prospects to land a 4th OF in a Free Agent market where player salaries should be way down & SD is FINALLY the "place to be". Plus We'll need serious SP depth to get through the long schedule next year.
The trades proposed including yours line up from a "value" standpoint, but they undervalue SP especially elite SP prospects. Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hedges, & Francisco Mejia (jury still out) were all ranked higher than Brandon Marsh as prospects... no guarantees. Gore/Adell prospect rankings are close, but I agree that one is BONKERS with how much Adell has struggled in MLB.
I wasn't really serious about Trout... but that idea makes more "sense" for both teams in a fundamental underlying way. The Angels are and have been bad WITH Trout. Stuck with big bad contracts. It would be an organizational pivot. The prospects go from a really good MLB team , the really good player & his BIG contract goes from the bad team. Just saying that's usually how it works. Preller did do Grisham for Urias though...
#88 · September 22, 2020, 12:49 pm
Since money is fungible ... saw a note that the 2021 draft is likely to be based on the 2020 standings (not a combo of 2019 and 2020).
The implication to the Padres who had a $10.6MM pool in 2020 by being near the bottom of the standings ... could be as much as a $5MM “savings” as they draft lower in the order for finishing near the top of the standings in 2020. (I know not clean given the way they seem to want to defer bonuses to future years).
However, in simple terms .... could that allow the Padres another $5MM to deploy for 2021 payroll? (Or maybe they have already factored that in).
#89 · September 22, 2020, 1:05 pm
In separate speculation, reports are that Dombrowski may be the leading candidate to take over the LAA GM role.
Important in his profile is his history of going for making quick winners by dealing prospects (and spending money) ... the owner Moreno clearly is willing to spend money and wants to win now.
Clearly it is ML quality SP to insert NOW as the prime target. They have top OF prospects in Adell, Marsh, and Adams ... in that order of rank and ML proximity.
Since I don’t expect them to move any of that talent for “prospects” .... would the Padres gamble on their own pitching prospects and deal one of Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, or Paddack to get an OF that could be the 2021 replacement for Pham?
As much as I like Davies (0nly 1 year control) ... so a Davies and Baez base for Marsh (Top 100, can play all 3 OF slots, behind Upton, Trout, Adell)? Too much? Not enough to? Getting Marsh for the future is not important?
#90 · September 22, 2020, 1:09 pm
You guys are OB-SESSED with Brandon Marsh... you're killing me.