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Pre-2021 Planning
Quote from MrPadre19 on September 18, 2020, 1:48 pmThe other option is if Manny is still playing like a $40 mil per player that he opts out and we re-sign him to a deal we can both live with.
Also,are we just assuming that Ona is not the RH outfielder we need going forward?
From what I've seen this year I would be OK with him as our 5th outfielder next season...or with him starting in AAA and coming up during the year.
If we do look outside the Org for our future LF I'm assuming it's a high OBP type rather than a middle of the order type.
We seem to have the power we need....of course could always use more but getting on base has been the directive this year and man has it worked out for us.
An OBP "and" Power guy would be ideal of course but we have payroll limits...:)
Considering we have Pham next year, next years trade deadline might be the perfect time to make a deal for a long term LF'r to replace him.
Hopefully we are in the race but if we are not, trading Pham to a contender(if he is having a typical Pham year) might be the ticket to getting his replacement.
If we are in the pennant race we would probably want to hold on to Pham and therefore would have to give up prospects.
The other option is if Manny is still playing like a $40 mil per player that he opts out and we re-sign him to a deal we can both live with.
Also,are we just assuming that Ona is not the RH outfielder we need going forward?
From what I've seen this year I would be OK with him as our 5th outfielder next season...or with him starting in AAA and coming up during the year.
If we do look outside the Org for our future LF I'm assuming it's a high OBP type rather than a middle of the order type.
We seem to have the power we need....of course could always use more but getting on base has been the directive this year and man has it worked out for us.
An OBP "and" Power guy would be ideal of course but we have payroll limits...:)
Considering we have Pham next year, next years trade deadline might be the perfect time to make a deal for a long term LF'r to replace him.
Hopefully we are in the race but if we are not, trading Pham to a contender(if he is having a typical Pham year) might be the ticket to getting his replacement.
If we are in the pennant race we would probably want to hold on to Pham and therefore would have to give up prospects.
Quote from Ben Davey on September 19, 2020, 9:36 amI'm not too worried about the OF depth mainly because we have Pham for another year, Myers for two, and Grisham for the forseeable future. Abrams probably ends up in CF/leadoff hitter. I wouldnt be surprised to see Profar resigned for next year (or if not trust Ona as your 4th OF)
Finding a high speed, + defense, light hitting OF is not difficult (we just got one from Cleveland) as our 5th OF/defensive replacement.
Plus given the current rotation, it is hard to see a trade or two not happen in the next 12 months. Makes sense that Morejon steps in for Richard in 2021 but that still leaves two of the top pitching prospects on the outside looking in.
Just as a thought (not that it would happen), but would you trade either Patino or Gore for Jo Adell straight up? Gore is actually older (by a month), and Adell would lock in a future OF of Grisham/Abrams/Adell for the next five years.
I'm not too worried about the OF depth mainly because we have Pham for another year, Myers for two, and Grisham for the forseeable future. Abrams probably ends up in CF/leadoff hitter. I wouldnt be surprised to see Profar resigned for next year (or if not trust Ona as your 4th OF)
Finding a high speed, + defense, light hitting OF is not difficult (we just got one from Cleveland) as our 5th OF/defensive replacement.
Plus given the current rotation, it is hard to see a trade or two not happen in the next 12 months. Makes sense that Morejon steps in for Richard in 2021 but that still leaves two of the top pitching prospects on the outside looking in.
Just as a thought (not that it would happen), but would you trade either Patino or Gore for Jo Adell straight up? Gore is actually older (by a month), and Adell would lock in a future OF of Grisham/Abrams/Adell for the next five years.
Quote from Randy Manese on September 19, 2020, 11:11 amGiven our pitching depth and what is in the minors, I would do it if I am convinced that Adell will clean up his pitch selection and get his OBP into a reasonable .330-.345 range. He can do it all (albeit his fly ball routes need polishing) but can't be a guy that strikes out 180+ times a year - we already have that guy in Gettys. Pitchers are very valuable when healthy and have a proven track record but they typically are more volatile to project as successful than position players. So my answer, with the caveats above, is YES. In fact, I might even do it for Jasson Dominguez, but don't think the Yankees will part with that guy even if he's never even been in a minor league game yet.
Given our pitching depth and what is in the minors, I would do it if I am convinced that Adell will clean up his pitch selection and get his OBP into a reasonable .330-.345 range. He can do it all (albeit his fly ball routes need polishing) but can't be a guy that strikes out 180+ times a year - we already have that guy in Gettys. Pitchers are very valuable when healthy and have a proven track record but they typically are more volatile to project as successful than position players. So my answer, with the caveats above, is YES. In fact, I might even do it for Jasson Dominguez, but don't think the Yankees will part with that guy even if he's never even been in a minor league game yet.
Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:42 amWell that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
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Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
Well that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
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Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:57 amFrom a starting line-up / SP ... Padres seem set ... therefore not much logic of a major trade (add or delete) prior to 2021. Maybe some minor shuffling for the bench (but maybe not even there).
I would expect Preller at some point try to move out some of the fringe assets .... out of options for 2021 .... for some lower level prospects with upside ... sort of a Rodney for Paddack type move (probably not that good). If he doesn't he likely will lose 3-4 via the waiver process at the end of ST.
Of course with no 40 man issue through the winter he can wait to make those moves in ST after judging who is healthy and who has developed to ML quality.
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From a starting line-up / SP ... Padres seem set ... therefore not much logic of a major trade (add or delete) prior to 2021. Maybe some minor shuffling for the bench (but maybe not even there).
I would expect Preller at some point try to move out some of the fringe assets .... out of options for 2021 .... for some lower level prospects with upside ... sort of a Rodney for Paddack type move (probably not that good). If he doesn't he likely will lose 3-4 via the waiver process at the end of ST.
Of course with no 40 man issue through the winter he can wait to make those moves in ST after judging who is healthy and who has developed to ML quality.
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Quote from Randy Manese on September 19, 2020, 1:40 pmFenn, you may be on to something even if we are just wildly speculating. given the age of the Angels roster, they want a pitcher they can plug in immediately and expect superior results - that could be Lamet or it could be Clevinger. We could trade either for Adell but then have to extend the non-traded pitcher plus Davies to make sure we have at least three reliable starters; here, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Paddack will be a reliable starter. We can then work in Gore, Patino, Morejon even Lucchesi in the 4th or 5th slots or pick up another lower cost arm that will tie us over until our younger pitchers get established. But think of that OF (add in Abrams to CF) and backed with Tatis, Jr., Cronenworth and Campusano and still have Manny and Nola around to fill out the line-up. We'll be set for years with relatively lower cost position players. We can then transition the pitching staff and relief corps with more of a safety net over time. I think Ben has the makings of a good idea, but your twist on it is even better. Love to speculate even though we will probably just see some mundane adds and subtracts for 2021.
Fenn, you may be on to something even if we are just wildly speculating. given the age of the Angels roster, they want a pitcher they can plug in immediately and expect superior results - that could be Lamet or it could be Clevinger. We could trade either for Adell but then have to extend the non-traded pitcher plus Davies to make sure we have at least three reliable starters; here, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Paddack will be a reliable starter. We can then work in Gore, Patino, Morejon even Lucchesi in the 4th or 5th slots or pick up another lower cost arm that will tie us over until our younger pitchers get established. But think of that OF (add in Abrams to CF) and backed with Tatis, Jr., Cronenworth and Campusano and still have Manny and Nola around to fill out the line-up. We'll be set for years with relatively lower cost position players. We can then transition the pitching staff and relief corps with more of a safety net over time. I think Ben has the makings of a good idea, but your twist on it is even better. Love to speculate even though we will probably just see some mundane adds and subtracts for 2021.
Quote from hoffy51 on September 19, 2020, 4:57 pmQuote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:42 amWell that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
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Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
I think I would rather see if Adell can hit major league pitching before we trade Gore for him. Just sayin
Quote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:42 amWell that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
======
Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
I think I would rather see if Adell can hit major league pitching before we trade Gore for him. Just sayin
Quote from JasonE135 on September 20, 2020, 1:14 amQuote from hoffy51 on September 19, 2020, 4:57 pmQuote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:42 amWell that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
======
Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
I think I would rather see if Adell can hit major league pitching before we trade Gore for him. Just sayin
I don't think we should set our sights quite so high. How about Brandon Marsh? He is left-handed, has plus defense, speed and arm, can be our backup CF and #4 OF in 2021 and eventually take over LF in 2022. Most importantly he would be much cheaper than Adell.
If we still had Quantrill I would try to center that trade around him. But we don't. I am sure the Angels would have some interest in Lucchesi but it would likely require more. Maybe Baez? I hate to even think it but it would likely require Morejon. You have to give to get and Marsh looks like real quality.
I want our Padres to sign a reliable back end starter this off-season anyway. Our bullpen days have not been working. If Lucchesi can return to what he has been in past years fine, he can have it. But we obviously haven't been able to count on Patino yet. Morejon has shown tremendous flashes but not consistently. I think we should have a full starting 5 and wait for injuries or bad performance from them before we give the kids a shot. There will be injuries.
Quote from hoffy51 on September 19, 2020, 4:57 pmQuote from fenn68 on September 19, 2020, 11:42 amWell that is a fun debate ... that will never turn into reality. Every team overvalues their own prospect.
IF LAA were willing to deal Adell it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering his future ... why would Preller trade Gore (or Patino) .... both the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
IF SD was willing to deal Gore (or Patino) it has to be because they see some major flaws hindering their futures ... why would the LAA trade Adell ... the epitome of perfection in a prospect ... for a flawed prospect.
Sort of why we almost never see elite prospects traded for each other ... GM have too much invested in their own prospect.
======
Now if you want to deal Lamet for Adell ... might get LAA attention (not mine but their's).
I think I would rather see if Adell can hit major league pitching before we trade Gore for him. Just sayin
I don't think we should set our sights quite so high. How about Brandon Marsh? He is left-handed, has plus defense, speed and arm, can be our backup CF and #4 OF in 2021 and eventually take over LF in 2022. Most importantly he would be much cheaper than Adell.
If we still had Quantrill I would try to center that trade around him. But we don't. I am sure the Angels would have some interest in Lucchesi but it would likely require more. Maybe Baez? I hate to even think it but it would likely require Morejon. You have to give to get and Marsh looks like real quality.
I want our Padres to sign a reliable back end starter this off-season anyway. Our bullpen days have not been working. If Lucchesi can return to what he has been in past years fine, he can have it. But we obviously haven't been able to count on Patino yet. Morejon has shown tremendous flashes but not consistently. I think we should have a full starting 5 and wait for injuries or bad performance from them before we give the kids a shot. There will be injuries.
Quote from Ben Davey on September 20, 2020, 1:26 amThe idea of trading Gore (or Patino) for someone like Adell is more the thought of top 10 prospect for top 10 prospect. You can make the argument that both can start 2021 in AAA but who are you going to kick out of the rotation? Paddack, Morejon, Davies? Even if you kick one of them out where do you see two openings?
But trading one of them for another potential All-Star caliber young controllable bat could be worth it. I like the idea of talking to the Yankees about doing a potential Gore for Dominguez swap. Dominguez is a few years away but already looks like the next Tatis/Wander Franco. He would be ready right as Tatis is on his last year or two or arbitration, would be a great replacement if the Padres dont resign Tatis, or he could move over to 2nd.
The idea of trading Gore (or Patino) for someone like Adell is more the thought of top 10 prospect for top 10 prospect. You can make the argument that both can start 2021 in AAA but who are you going to kick out of the rotation? Paddack, Morejon, Davies? Even if you kick one of them out where do you see two openings?
But trading one of them for another potential All-Star caliber young controllable bat could be worth it. I like the idea of talking to the Yankees about doing a potential Gore for Dominguez swap. Dominguez is a few years away but already looks like the next Tatis/Wander Franco. He would be ready right as Tatis is on his last year or two or arbitration, would be a great replacement if the Padres dont resign Tatis, or he could move over to 2nd.
Quote from JasonE135 on September 20, 2020, 2:35 amQuote from Ben Davey on September 20, 2020, 1:26 amThe idea of trading Gore (or Patino) for someone like Adell is more the thought of top 10 prospect for top 10 prospect. You can make the argument that both can start 2021 in AAA but who are you going to kick out of the rotation? Paddack, Morejon, Davies? Even if you kick one of them out where do you see two openings?
But trading one of them for another potential All-Star caliber young controllable bat could be worth it. I like the idea of talking to the Yankees about doing a potential Gore for Dominguez swap. Dominguez is a few years away but already looks like the next Tatis/Wander Franco. He would be ready right as Tatis is on his last year or two or arbitration, would be a great replacement if the Padres dont resign Tatis, or he could move over to 2nd.
We currently have Clevinger, Lamet, Davies and Paddack set in the rotation. The #5 spot is a bullpen day. We currently have Patino and Morejon BOTH vying for that spot right now. Obviously neither one has earned it. Gore has pitched a total of 22 innings above class A. Patino has 8 innings. Neither one is ready for the majors. Management has already shown that they don't think Gore is ready by not promoting him above Patino and Patino has proven the same so far with his performance. Perhaps they shouldn't be rushed AND counted on? Besides which Davies will be FA after next year and Clevinger the year after that. There are also injuries every year. Nobody will be hurting for opportunities.
I have never been a fan of Adell. He never hit for a high average in the minors. I always saw him as someone who might have trouble making consistent contact in the majors. I am also not so flippant about trading prize prospects. Gore's FLOOR seems to be solid #3 starter. His ceiling is ACE. Everyone is desperate for pitching. I don't think we should trade him for a former top prospect who hasn't been able to bat his way out of a wet paper bag so far in the majors.
Dominguez is an OF. I think it would be folly to even hope he could eventually become a SS or 2B. Gore is the #5 prospect in baseball. Dominguez isn't even top 50. His grade is all about his tools only. He is a HUGE risk at this point. He has never had even 1 AB in any the majors OR the minors. Gore has shown a few years of monstrous production. Their value is nowhere close to equal.
I can see that you are hoping to be able to trade for what you hope will be a monster bat. I just wouldn't trade the best pitching prospect in the game for either of the guys you mentioned. I also don't see any trades of any top prospects happening anytime soon. We are the only team who traded a top 100 prospect at the deadline and that was our 5th best one. Preller wouldn't trade Gore or Patino for Syndergaard back when we were desperate for pitching and especially an ACE. I seriously doubt he will do it now.
Quote from Ben Davey on September 20, 2020, 1:26 amThe idea of trading Gore (or Patino) for someone like Adell is more the thought of top 10 prospect for top 10 prospect. You can make the argument that both can start 2021 in AAA but who are you going to kick out of the rotation? Paddack, Morejon, Davies? Even if you kick one of them out where do you see two openings?
But trading one of them for another potential All-Star caliber young controllable bat could be worth it. I like the idea of talking to the Yankees about doing a potential Gore for Dominguez swap. Dominguez is a few years away but already looks like the next Tatis/Wander Franco. He would be ready right as Tatis is on his last year or two or arbitration, would be a great replacement if the Padres dont resign Tatis, or he could move over to 2nd.
We currently have Clevinger, Lamet, Davies and Paddack set in the rotation. The #5 spot is a bullpen day. We currently have Patino and Morejon BOTH vying for that spot right now. Obviously neither one has earned it. Gore has pitched a total of 22 innings above class A. Patino has 8 innings. Neither one is ready for the majors. Management has already shown that they don't think Gore is ready by not promoting him above Patino and Patino has proven the same so far with his performance. Perhaps they shouldn't be rushed AND counted on? Besides which Davies will be FA after next year and Clevinger the year after that. There are also injuries every year. Nobody will be hurting for opportunities.
I have never been a fan of Adell. He never hit for a high average in the minors. I always saw him as someone who might have trouble making consistent contact in the majors. I am also not so flippant about trading prize prospects. Gore's FLOOR seems to be solid #3 starter. His ceiling is ACE. Everyone is desperate for pitching. I don't think we should trade him for a former top prospect who hasn't been able to bat his way out of a wet paper bag so far in the majors.
Dominguez is an OF. I think it would be folly to even hope he could eventually become a SS or 2B. Gore is the #5 prospect in baseball. Dominguez isn't even top 50. His grade is all about his tools only. He is a HUGE risk at this point. He has never had even 1 AB in any the majors OR the minors. Gore has shown a few years of monstrous production. Their value is nowhere close to equal.
I can see that you are hoping to be able to trade for what you hope will be a monster bat. I just wouldn't trade the best pitching prospect in the game for either of the guys you mentioned. I also don't see any trades of any top prospects happening anytime soon. We are the only team who traded a top 100 prospect at the deadline and that was our 5th best one. Preller wouldn't trade Gore or Patino for Syndergaard back when we were desperate for pitching and especially an ACE. I seriously doubt he will do it now.




