Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2020, 6:30 am

Well that is good news. We are all guessing on how the arbitration numbers play out .. but I come in at about $135MM ... so maybe up to $15MM to redeploy.

Preller is going to be in a pretty good position to be selective in his approach ... wants to upgrade but with the bulk of the current team .... 2nd best record in the NL ... returning .... not the pressure for any specific move.

If they don’t go “big” on any one player ... good opportunity to add multiple upgrades for the bench but not sure multiple upgrades on players who will not play all that much is the best strategic use of the money. I am pretty much focused on that RHH OF and the RHP closer ... both would get a lot of use to justify the added payroll.

We have covered the RHH OF a lot .... but getting some quality that would replace Pham in 2022 when Pham goes FA (assuming at this age / price) will not be re-signed. As it stands ... not much to rely on coming up in the system ready in 2022 and can’t rely on FA market.

Maybe more important is the RH closer .... so should be discussions with Rosenthal and Yates. I don’t like going big on RP (highly variable) but going into 2021 it is Pagan and a lot of hope on RHRP that have not yet succeeded in the ML. Over 162 game schedule, need more than Pomeranz / Pagan to finish games. Same as with the OF .... should consider a multi-year arrangement ... since past Pagan ... a collection of out of option RP who will get claimed off waivers before next season and Stammen / Johnson go FA.

From a trade perspective ... still not trading any of the elite prospects for short term “filler” and not sure that next tier of what is left in the system would generate much better than the current bench unless Preller finds a team that wants to shed some payroll as a priority.

Hard to guess what an offer of a multi-year contract in this FA environment would do to reduce the AAV (or 2021 component) but that may squeeze in a better player into the payroll limit.

Since we are talking Preller ... compelled to do something ... but really does not have to do anything major and may have the luxury to really wait out the FA market (expected to be slow) and sweep in at the last minute to get upgrades at a discount as agents panic.

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2020, 6:58 am

Padres should consider the fact (both from a financial and roster view) that Pham, Moreland, Garcia, Davies, Stammen, and Johnson all are FA after 2021. That will lower the payroll a lot (more arb decisions will offset at some level).

Does support the argument to start focusing on multi-year adds and supports the flexibility of a lower 2021 by using a higher 2022-23 (and / or delayed bonuses).

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 18, 2020, 9:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2020, 6:58 am

Padres should consider the fact (both from a financial and roster view) that Pham, Moreland, Garcia, Davies, Stammen, and Johnson all are FA after 2021. That will lower the payroll a lot (more arb decisions will offset at some level).

Does support the argument to start focusing on multi-year adds and supports the flexibility of a lower 2021 by using a higher 2022-23 (and / or delayed bonuses).

 

The expiring contract $ coming off after 2021 season (mostly Pham & Davies) is roughly similar to after 2020 ... but there is not a "repeat" of the dead $ coming off the books after '20.    2022 to me looks like maybe the payroll peak with big Arb increases to Clevinger, Lamet, and first timers Paddack and some guy named Tatis (if not already under contract).

FWIW Johnson & Stammen have club options for '22 vs 1 MM buyouts.  Stammen looks sure to be bought out if still around.        P. Johnson too early to tell (2022 = 3 MM).

Quote from WindsorUK on September 18, 2020, 9:37 am

Price wise, Moreland obviously better option but Profar gives the team a great deal more flexibility.

He continues at his current pace, it'll be hard to let go of a guy who you can plug into, what, 6 positions, if anyone goes down?

If AJ wants to keep him, he'll figure out a way to make it happen.

Quote from Randy Manese on September 18, 2020, 10:15 am

Padres have only two contracts that extend beyond 2023 and both have player "opt outs".  One is Hosmer, whose contract goes to 2025, but drops from 21M to 13M after the 2022 season - he would be 33 years old entering the 2023 season.   The other is Machado, whose contract runs through 2028 at 32M - he would be 31 years old entering his 2024 season and only 35 years old when his contract runs out.  Padres have a team option in 2023 to continue Myers for one more year at 20M, at which time he will be 32 years old.  All the others will either become FAs or be in arbitration, unless we start negotiating long-term contracts for them.  Therefore, while 2021 seems rather a mundane year to find players, you have to look at the position player assets in the next two years to see where the potential gaps will be.  Campy and Abrams are probably the only two we can feel good about as becoming everyday players by 2022.  Hopefully, we'll see development in the minor leagues for others but keep this in mind when Preller goes looking for deals during this off-season.  I think we are in a pretty good position with some young-ish veterans leading the team among the bright stars.

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2020, 11:30 am

I see that some sites have Machado's salary at > $30 / year going forward ... think that includes the proration of his signing bonus which has already been paid out right after signing. Cash flow is $30MM/yer going forward. (per Cot's). Padres, in theory, could trade him since he only may block deals to 6 clubs annually ... but not likely the Padres will go that route in the near term. Should note that his opt out after 2023 coincides with him gaining 10/5 rights with the Padres blocking any future trades without his OK. I guess there is a chance that the Padres could try to avoid having to be locked into Manny for 5 more years ($150MM) and deal him before 2024.

Hosmer will be the interesting one ... especially since Boras is his agent. If he opts out, it is only opting out of $39MM/3 years ($13MM AAV) ... and if he does "well" in 2022 that might be a target he could beat. He has full no trade protection through this year ... a two year window with limited trade protection ... then he gets 10/5 full trade protection in 2023.

I expect both to live out their deals but just some technical points that limit options.

Note that both have their trade windows end consistent with their opt-out ... makes a deal real difficult with the buyer not knowing if he is getting those out years without renegotiating with the agent. Does not make for a good return to the Padres in that scenario.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 18, 2020, 11:46 am

If Manny is anywhere at all close to what he's doing this season (80-85%)  in the year preceding opt out decision, he WILL opt out & get much > 5/150 going forward.

Far less likely, but even Hosmer is a possibility to, which seemed like an impossibility a year ago.  I mean, if Wil Myers put up these #'s over the 2022 season, wouldn't it be a no brainer to pick up his club option?

Speculative nice "problems" to have, but really no point to looking THAT far down the road.

Our SP succession plan looks awesome for the next 3-5 years; limits the highest expense of elite FA SP (see: 2020 offseason).

We should just focus on building the best possible MLB team around the large core now year by year.  2-3 years out is an eternity.

Quote from fenn68 on September 18, 2020, 11:54 am

Assuming they pass on Myers' option ... 2023 should be a good payroll year (baring any new FA signings) and just having to work with the arbitration decisions (still most not at the real expensive Arb3/4 level).

2024 will start looking dicy with Lamet a FA (if they want to resign him) and Tatis/Paddack in their last arbitration plus a number of the current "young" assets having moved into arbitration.

Looks to be that if $150MM is the rough payroll target ... Padres may have a window to add some veteran talent on multi-year deals for 2021-23 but not longer if they plan in 2024 to start dealing with paying their own internal stars and extend them forward. Also, by 2024, that next wave of position prospects should have worked their way up the system to take ML roles but that Abrams, Head, Hassell, Means, Cassie, on the some of the Latin prospects we have yet to know. Next wave of pitching should be also at the door ... so phasing in Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers in the next couple of years minimize the need to resign Davies, Clevinger, and even Lamet ... then Wilcox, Lange, et. al tracking in.

Prospects do have to produce ... but could be set for a nice controlled transition player / payroll wise for some time allowing for the big contract for a Tatis and few other home grown stars.

Quote from hoffy51 on September 18, 2020, 12:06 pm

I think Manny will stay. (1) He wants to win and the Padres are positioned for some success in the heart of his career. (2) I think he understands what it means to play next to Fernando Tatis, Jr. (3) He likes to win. I think the Padres have surrounded him with coaches that he feels comfortable with and his had success with. (4) He has clearly blossomed this year under Jayce Tingler. (5) Can't beat the weather in San Diego. He was born and raised in Miami, and San Diego has better weather than like (take your pick) . . .  Detroit, etc. Plus, the biggest question in the whole equation is what his wife thinks. You can only buy so many cars, so many planes, so many cars, go on so many vacations, or buy so many shoes. You have got to be able to be happy with 330 million dollars. At some point, you have to think about where you are happy, like your teammates and are in a winning situation (ie Patrick Mahomes).