Quote from Randy Manese on September 17, 2020, 10:51 am

Strongly concur regarding Ona and Campy.  Before he had a decent spring training the thought was Ona would start at Amarillo because he played very few games before being hurt in 2019.  Campy's natural progression was to go to Amarillo after winning co-MVP honors at Lake Elsinore.  As we see them today, Campy has really improved his body and he already was an advanced hitter, being one of the strongest persons on the team.  Ona has that same kind of natural strength but is more bulky and not as athletic - he will be challenged to play LF unless he also takes off some weight.  Going forward, Campy probably only needs half a season (maybe 200 PA)  to show he can handle his position both offensively and defensively - however, it will depend on the needs of the team at the time.  Ona, on the other hand, will benefit for playing the entire season at El Paso with maybe a late September call-up (unless we have some injuries) to see how he holds up in the field and whether his strike zone judgment is improved to where he is chasing less.  Unless traded, Mejia is a key part of the bench - don't see the Padres carrying 3 catchers for most of the year.

Moreland is on the bubble for me.  I know his track record but his bat has been very slow and he's been bailing out a lot, particularly against LH pitching.  A decision has to be reached before spring training and I agree that the thought was that Moreland had enough left to be valuable in 2021 - I'd just like to see more hard contact from him before thinking he will be a lock on the 2021 roster.  If the Padres could acquire a decent hitting OF (preferably one who can play CF decently) to tie them over until Abrams is ready, Moreland's tenure may be in jeopardy.  He is reasonably priced, however, so that also could come into consideration.

There should only be a few slots open on the 2021 roster, so what happens in the off-season will be very interesting.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 17, 2020, 12:11 pm

Good take, Randy.   Let's be honest; Ona was the #29 consensus prospect and about the 11th OF in ST I.  He got optioned early, then apparently did get hurt in minors camp which led to him not being in Summer camp or even the 60-man pool initially.  A lot of his rapid ascent to MLB has to do with the trades of so many OF out.   But to his credit, I think he's done great so far, & obviously Pads gave him a 7 MM bonus for a reason.

He just needs to play, see more Pitchers, tighten strike zone, obviously work on Defense, etc.  Don't know if his body type is very conducive to "leaning out", but needs to try (Naylor did do it, but has absolutely no in game power so far in 2020).  Can't stick in MLB as a DH only at 24-25 years old; have to at least be passable in LF.  Has shown enough in tiny sample hitting (anyone who can get a hit off Kershaw!) to at least be able to say it's not ludicrous to suggest he could replace Pham in 2022.

Campusano a breakout 2019... but at hitter friendly High A.  Big jump to AA, BUT he has been facing good pitching (much AA+) at the 60-man site... and Catching our AA+ P's.  His development may have even accelerated a little in this weird season, but still needs to be C in game situations, facing more P's etc.   With all the changes @ C, could definitely see him at AAA to open next season.

I keep defending Moreland, but that doesn't mean he's not "on the bubble".  He HAS to show more than he has so far.  But his HR vs. Sentzalea who kills our lineup even this year, he went down & got like a 96 mph low inside FB; not a hanging breaking ball or whatever; it was impressive.   I'm sure the hitting coaches & Tingler have GOT to be looking at his swing now vs. earlier in year @ Boston.  Guys can lose their bat speed quickly (ultimate example: Headley), but like I said earlier, he would have had to lose his on the cross country flight!

Quote from fenn68 on September 17, 2020, 1:01 pm

I would give Moreland a 70-80% chance of starting 2021 with the Padres. The pivotal point may be how they construct the other 4 reserves.

One, of course, will be a catcher (probably Mejia) and do agree that Campusano in the minors is "likely".

IF the Padres can land a RHH who can play somewhere in the field (preferably OF) AND be the DH platoon with Moreland ... that is good for Moreland. The hedge is that may not be all that easy ... at a reasonable price.

Without another CF option ... Mateo sticks (and he can play INF) even though he can't hit. Garcia sticks (even though he can't hit LHP) because he can play INF. So, with the current roster, INF is protected (not well but protected) with Mateo / Garcia. OF only with Mateo ... so RHH OF is key. Ona in AAA is likely unless the Padres cannot acquire a better (low cost) option.

I keep hedging on Moreland since he really is only a DH who hits RHP (not taking 1B from Hosmer). Against LHP with Boston in 2019 he had a 56 wRC+ and in 2020 with both Boston and SD he has a 29 wRC+. Boston rarely used him vs. LHP unless a RP came in.

So could go one of two ways ... Padres find the match in a reserve player to handle RH DH (good for Moreland) or Padres find a single player who handles both LHP and RHP (not good for Moreland).

Side: could use Mejia as the RHH option at DH (or Nola with Mejia catching) ... minor risk of an injury to the catcher and moving the DH to catch loses the DH for the game (low probability but a consideration).

In the course of a 162 game slate ... need options for playing INF/OF ... injuries / rest .. not sure we will be happy with only Mateo and Garcia being the first in. Zip in AAA/AA for middling INF or CF that are ML quality (for a contender).

Bottom line is that there are a lot of interrelated needs that may out weigh Moreland's ability to hit RHP as a DH.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 17, 2020, 3:33 pm

LOL... we're going to spend "more" time discussing Moreland than extending Tatis which is REALLY priority # 1, 2, & 3 this offseason!

In addition to the "tiny sample" issue, think you're doing 2 things:

1) Undervaluing "DH vs RHP"... in a full normal season there will be about twice as many games JUST vs. RHP as there are games this ENTIRE SEASON.  It IS important.  SOMEONE on the 5 man bench does have to be in the lineup every day in that role.  What's less important on the Padres is your backup 2B, SS, & 3B when we have ROY & 2 MVP candidates at those positions.   Manny & Tatis probably start 155-157 games in the field if healthy.  Cronenworth likely fewer, but Nola can complement vs some tough LHP, even if only 2 C's active.  RH Mateo can also cover those spots... just don't need THAT much covering.  We absolutely positively need a "real" 4th OF ideally RH that can cover CF.  Mateo more "theoretical" as a CF vs LHP hitting 9th.    GG career OBP .357 vs MM .320...  MM career Slug .447 vs GG .341

2) Restricting view to the current season/format/options.   Our "real" 2020 post-deadline bench we haven't seen yet, but may very soon is:  Castro, Moreland, Garcia, Profar, Mateo.   There is a <50% but very significant chance that O.D. 2021 none of these 5 are here!   2 FA's, 1 club option, 1 possible Arb Eligible Non-tender, and 1 "project prospect".   Always "something" to do, but Preller's 2021 list looks easiest to me in at least 15 years for San Diego with all 8 Field positions, 1-4 SP, most of bullpen set.  "All" that's left:  Bench, maybe a RH closer, sort out vets in Bullpen, shore up AAA/AA position player depth.

Here's my 2 "last words" (LOL) on Moreland:   1)  IF he were hitting exactly his career (3,800+ AB's) averages, would this discussing be taking place?  No.  So the 'issue' isn't really about "needing" the LH DH, it's about if THIS LH DH is the right guy.   2)   Let's say Moreland's weak finish causes Preller to buy him out.  Extremely likely outcome?  Lands somewhere else in MLB, even if it's on Minors make good deal.  Law of Averages outcome?  He hits at close to his career averages, which Padres would have been very happy with for the additional 2.5 MM.  WORST possible case outcome?  We re-up him for 3 MM.  He is bad for half the season.  We DFA him.  No one claims him.  Then someone signs him for MLB minimum... saves maybe 300K?

... I don't know, every ounce of common sense I have re the trade & his contract screams that it wasn't just for 2020... now if MM would just prove me right!

 

Quote from JasonE135 on September 17, 2020, 6:09 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 17, 2020, 9:22 am

Ona, Mejia, Campusano nobody can guarantee. They will get their chances next year to try to prove themselves and take the DH role from Moreland but it will not just be given to them

Ona & Campusano are RH.  It's near 100% both guys will be in Minors making up for all the lost reps this year, because that is HOW you develop a guy into the best player he can be... by having him play as much as possible until he's as ready as he'll ever be for likely a reduced role on a good MLB team.   No one thought Campusano then Ona would debut this year; all injury driven, so talking about them this way just seems a little silly.  Ona's played 1 month last 2 years, and was a late addition to 60-man pool due to ST I injury.  Campusano has NO AA/AAA AB.  Despite projecting to 162 HR over a full season, think he needs to play to develop.  I will agree that C's did get probably better "development" from the 60-man pool format this year than other field positions, but still.

Mejia (SH) near 100% to be one of 5 on the bench.  But I just think it eats too much into both his and Campusano's playing time for both to be on the opening day roster just so 1 of the 3 C's can DH.  Higher probability they try to find another MLB vet backup C on a 1 year deal to open up Nola in the field sometimes (his RH complements Hos & Crone's LH).  But I agree it's really hard to have 2 C's and DH (Moreland) on your bench; even though Nola can play elsewhere.

You do realize that I was saying basically the same thing right? My point was not about Ona, Campusano or Mejia. It was about Moreland. My point was that none of those 3 can be counted on by a contender.

Quote from BoosterSD on September 17, 2020, 8:34 pm

Read an article/mail bag piece on The Athletic from Dennis Lin the other week, and one question to him was, What will be SDs salary range for 2021. He mentioned that ownership has mentioned they can still handle what they thought the 2020 range of $140-150, in 2021.

According to Spotrac the Padres have about $113M for next season, in guaranteed salaries for 2021 and pre arb salaries from 2020, that includes Moreland, whom Lin thinks SD will keep. That leaves approx $37M for arbitration raises and FA signings.

Players due for arbitration are Garcia(2020-$1.5M), Pham($7.9M), Mateo($563.5K), Davies($5.25M), Clevinger($4.1M), Lamet($1.3m), Strahm($1.4M), Perdomo($950K), Luchessi($600K), Pagan($600K), Altavilla($575K), and Guerra($565K).

You could say the starting 8 is Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth, Hosmer, Pham, Grisham, and Myers. I think you could look at dispersing the money slightly differently, depending your thoughts for LF/CF. I know that Grisham is doing really well in CF; however, how would he look in LF? And then you could get a defensive/lead off type hitter in CF, if there is one available. Not much available in FA. Unless you think you could get Springer, and then trade Pham.

Starting rotation of Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, and Paddock. And bullpen of Pomeranz, Stammen, and Johnson, plus the list of arb guys and ones under team control listed above.

So do we spend some money upgrading LF/CF? Do we add a veteran 4th SP, and push Paddack down? Or do we spend some good money on the bullpen and keep either Yates or Rosenthal?

Quote from Randy Manese on September 17, 2020, 9:24 pm

I'm thinking we have to budget around 15-20M for our arbitration guys, particularly 60% of our starting rotation and key players (at this point in time) Pham, Strahm and Pagan.  Garcia and Perdomo probably price themselves out of the market and will not get a qualifying offer.  Remainder of the guys don't have much bargaining power and will take whatever offered or get released.

Springer got 21M (pro-rated) this year and at 30, despite his injuries, probably looking for something in the 25-30M per year range.  For that reason, think he becomes too pricey for us unless we trade Pham and/or Myers but the latter opens up another hole in the lineup, if Myers is gone.  Don't think Springer is doable, but maybe somebody less costly but still has some upside.

As for our own FA's, love to keep Rosenthal but he's going to get BIG BUCKS based on his bounce-back season and prior history.  Our commitment to Stammen and Johnson end in 2022, but the larger salary for Pomeranz kicks in next year.  Before he got injured, Rosenthal was making 9M per year (2019) and probably is back in that kind of trajectory demanding at least 10-12M per year for 3 years (he'll be 31 next year).   Might be affordable, but really have to think hard about when do we start paying Jr.  The FA more likely to sign is Profar, as our super utility player and part-time starter.  It seems he wants to be here and Padres want to keep him, so I'm thinking he stays for about 7.5 M per year but just for 2 years.  This gives him a chance to hit FA again at 30 and get an even bigger payday if he plays well.  Don't see either Castro or Richards coming back.  Yates will be hard-pressed to get a high-end contract at his age and the general volatility of relief pitchers; besides, there are a lot of them out there in FA in 2021.  Chance he signs a one-year low ball deal to establish his worth, like Rosenthal, for about 2.5 - 3M.

In my analysis, that pretty much eats up all the money that may be available if we can get Rosenthal, Profar and Yates to re-sign, however, we might not have the best offer and who knows what may be available as a decent hitting CF, SP or other piece of the team you might be thinking about.  Richards might even come back, but I don't think he likes the way he's been used lately.  More than likely we fill that 5th spot from within or look for a low cost option like Davies was this year.  I think Paddack comes back strong - we'll see on Friday how he does against Seattle.

 

Quote from BoosterSD on September 17, 2020, 9:48 pm

Quote from Randy Manese on September 17, 2020, 9:24 pm

I'm thinking we have to budget around 15-20M for our arbitration guys, particularly 60% of our starting rotation and key players (at this point in time) Pham, Strahm and Pagan.  Garcia and Perdomo probably price themselves out of the market and will not get a qualifying offer.  Remainder of the guys don't have much bargaining power and will take whatever offered or get released.

The $113M, already includes what they were contracted (not prorated for in 2020), So how much it will add on is hard to guess at this time, since the arb process will be so strange this season. Short season, different schedules, odd play off format, all will affect the monies given out in arb next season. So will Clevinger go from $4.1 to 8.2 or 10.4??? Lamet was $1.3M in 2020, how much does he go up? And finally Davies, from $5.25M to? You are right, these 3 and Pham are the ones with the biggest potential jumps. Pham, has a poor start and half the season out due to injury, so should not be a big jump. Garcia and Perdomo, bench players both under $1.5M each, should not be prohibitive to bring back if SD wants them. Strahm is in a little better spot going arb 2, however since he is not a closer, should not break the bank from his 2020 number. Pagan is in first year of arb, so no problem there, money wise.

I thinking that SD will; after arb increases, have about $20-30M to spend in FA in the off season. However, I will keep track of MLBTR as they do their yearly guesses on the arb outcomes.

Lets say the budget is $25M. A portion goes to either Rosenthal or Yates, age wise maybe Rosenthal, at an AAV around $12.5M. Profar, at an AAV around $7.5M, and then maybe a gamble on a vet rebound RHDH type that can pass for an occasional 1B/LFer. Maybe a Ryan Braun, Steven Sousa JR, Ozuna would be nice, probably out of our range, or Nelly Cruz is still a very productive DH, and being from the DR, would fit in nicely with the existing crew in SD. Of course thats if the DH stays in the NL in 2021.

Maybe if you feel Pom is the guy, you forgo both Yates and Rosenthal, and make a hard charge at Cruz, and have him as the main DH?

 

Quote from Randy Manese on September 17, 2020, 10:36 pm

Nellie, even at 41, would be a great get.  He's probably in the 12-14 M range, but well worth it.  I'd dump Moreland for Nellie in a heartbeat.  He is currently at 177 wRC+, which is Tatis' range/impact.  Assuming we have a DH next year, super idea!