Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2020, 6:17 pm

I guess I would (baring a “special” deal) stick with the Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack #1-4 and “wing it” with the best of the prospects for #5 ... how many teams really have a great #5 anyway.

Take what money may be available and re-sign:

1. Profar ... 4th OF / 5th INF / part time DH .... will “save” money on getting multiple upgrades for all three slots. Would go multi-year since that same set-up works for 2022 and 2023. Marwin Gonzalez / Ben Zobrist 2.0. Enough playing time to justify  a decent contract and probably better insurance for any INF/OF injury than another set of back-ups they could pick off the street. Profar (not Pham) has been the key getting the Padres to the playoffs.

2. Rosenthal ... need a legit closer and although he would be more costly than Yates, Yates is older and coming off surgery and therefore a greater risk.

That could well take care of the money available to increases but Padres would be well positioned to repeat 2019 success.

Quote from JasonE135 on September 23, 2020, 9:01 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 23, 2020, 6:17 pm

I guess I would (baring a “special” deal) stick with the Lamet, Clevinger, Davies, Paddack #1-4 and “wing it” with the best of the prospects for #5 ... how many teams really have a great #5 anyway.

Take what money may be available and re-sign:

1. Profar ... 4th OF / 5th INF / part time DH .... will “save” money on getting multiple upgrades for all three slots. Would go multi-year since that same set-up works for 2022 and 2023. Marwin Gonzalez / Ben Zobrist 2.0. Enough playing time to justify  a decent contract and probably better insurance for any INF/OF injury than another set of back-ups they could pick off the street. Profar (not Pham) has been the key getting the Padres to the playoffs.

2. Rosenthal ... need a legit closer and although he would be more costly than Yates, Yates is older and coming off surgery and therefore a greater risk.

That could well take care of the money available to increases but Padres would be well positioned to repeat 2019 success.

1. I would LOVE to re-sign Profar. He would take care of our present and immediate future OF needs. Unfortunately I think he will be looking to cash in big after a .275/.346/.431/.777 season with a 20/20 full season pace. I think someone will give him starter money and we will not. I expect him to get $15 million per year with a multi-year contract. Just FYI I think that Profar line is the kind of line that Marsh could put up if we cannot sign Profar.

2. With a 0.00 ERA this year I expect Pomeranz to be anointed our Closer for next year unless Yates comes back. I think we should sign either Rosenthal or Yates. Whichever comes cheaper. Both if possible. I just don't think ownership or Preller will be up for giving out another large reliever contract. Money will be tight next year.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Preller try to come up with 2 setup men out of Altavilla, Adams, Pagan, Johnson and Castillo.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 23, 2020, 11:08 pm

Good analysis guys.

1.  If Profar can really parlay his good short season into 8 figure AAV territory, that's WAY too much $ for Pads to commit there.   Would have to be him OR Pham.  As "catalytic" as Profar has been, I just don't know if I can buy a month+ in LF as he "is" a LF.  But would control him longer than Pham & he's way more flexible going forward.  I was currently (after being WAY low weeks ago) envisioning something along the lines of Pomeranz' contract... 4 yrs / 30 MM range; would have to be lower in 2021, then jump up in '22.  I really hate to say it, but look for LAD to be in on him with 2 corner OF & 3B as FA's.
2.  I think there's a really good chance Yates returns on a reasonable 1 year deal plus incentives with a decent buyout in '22 against a big salary.  Just think it's a better fit with Pom's deal already in place; allows a year for the development of an heir apparent (or 2) at back of pen from:  Guerra, J Castillo, A. Adams, or in 2+ yrs finally healthy Espinoza.   Some/most $ for it could be created by trading Stammen & his 5 MM (4 +1 buyout) with an asset.  I admit most likely is Lucchesi or maybe Baez (with a decent prospect back in return).

Quote from Ben Davey on September 24, 2020, 12:52 am

I cant imagine Profar getting 8 figures AAV.  I mean front offices are shying away from signing mid level players to large contracts.  Profar has had a good month after 4 years of being disappointing. I could see him getting 2/15, maybe 4/30 if a team is foolish.  Im sure he would love to come back to the Padres, but with Pham and Cro back in 2021, he doesnt have a starting spot lined up. Maybe they can convince Profar to take a 1 yr deal to really build value, but I dont think the Padres have the money.

I could see Yates coming back on a 1 yr deal as he will be hard pressed to get much money after missing all year.  Either way, he would not be getting the 7 mil/yr he got this year.  I think the Padres would be more inclined to try and work out a deal with Rosenthal but that might be wishful thinking.

The only thing we know for sure is Richards and his contract is gone.  BTW the plague that was Hector Olivera and his $8 mil comes off the books this year.  We also were paying Ian Kinsler to not pay.  So that gives us about $25 mil in wiggle room most of which will go to paying raises for Davies, Clev, and Pham.  Still it does give us some room to sign a player.  BUT I dont know how COVID will effect contracts in the offseason.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 24, 2020, 5:02 am

" but with Pham and Cro back in 2021, he doesnt have a starting spot lined up."

Unless the DH comes back.

That changes everything.

It makes guys like Profar and Cronenworth even more valuable because they can move around the field filling in while giving each starter a day off in the field.

Or you just give Pham the DH spot and Profar LF.

Profar/Cronenworth/Myers pretty much cover all 7 positions.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2020, 6:48 am

Although I really like Profar, I doubt GMs will dole out a major contract to sign him based on him being a starter given his history (and only 2 months in 2020) and what may be a very tight cash position for all teams. His value is based on his versatility ... not something most teams have as a priority to spend on ... his offense in LF is just OK but not what most teams are looking for in LF ... few pay big bucks for a 2B.

Now remember he did get $5.7MM in his final arbitration year (2020) even with his “history”. So, would think he will sign closer to the $7.5MM AAV range with a multi-year deal being the tiebreaker.

I choose not to underestimate the need (use) of a 4th OF / 5th INF / DH / PH over a 162 game schedule ... and the falloff after a Profar with the Padres is steep. (I expect the DH to stay ... but if not ... Moreland is gone and $2.5MM is saved to add to money available).

We will see.

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2020, 7:06 am

Agree that Rosenthal will be a tough (and unlikely) signing .. given his history with STL and the big demand for elite closers ... even in a tight money market he will be expensive.

Yates is more likely ... Padres have the first hand knowledge of his recovery from the surgery (that could be a pro or con). However, at 33, and in the market that covets elite closers .... he may be pursued by a number of other teams and he will listen. So, not an easy (or necessarily low cost) signing coming off a $7.1MM contract. Remember the surgery was “only” bone chips ... not TJ or the like. Maybe a deal at $7MM with incentives .. 2 years?

=====

I am guessing that the Padres want a proven closer to pair with Pomeranz for a shutdown 8th-9th inning plan or to have a second closer since neither would be going more than 2-3 consecutive games. Setting up that duo (if they can) has more value for a contender than the past Padre 90 loss teams. Develop Adams, Pagan, Castillo in set-up roles in the near term to step up in the future.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 24, 2020, 3:44 pm

What about Kevin Pillar for our 4th outfielder if Profar gets more than we want to spend?

He can’t play the infield but he’s a good fielder and is hitting pretty well....of course he “is” in  Colorado.

Looking at his splits he’s definitely benefited from Coors....but he had a good year in SF last year but his OBP wasn’t good.

AJ may shy away from anyone who doesn’t get on base at least to a .325 rate going forward.

So Pillar may not fit “the mold” after all......

I may have just talked myself out of the reason I posted in the first place.....lol

How do you guys feel about Pillar as an option?

 

Quote from fenn68 on September 24, 2020, 4:05 pm

For the right price ... Pillar works for me. Big point being he actually has ML history as a plus defensive CF (maybe age got him now a little) and some ability to hit ... better against LHP and that is a need.

Would even consider him (even IF Profar is resigned) as the reserve CF/RF and RHH DH with Moreland LHH DH freeing up Profar to really shuffle among the 4 INF slots and LF and DH. He should not be all that expensive ... $4.25MM this year.

If they sour on Moreland as a LHH DH only ... don’t pick up the option ... save $2.5MM to pay Pillar ... and have him share DH with Profar (#) / Pham. Also with Profar free to play more INF ... maybe Garcia is not brought back saving some money to redeploy.

Having both Moreland and Garcia on the bench ... neither can hit LHP ... is probably not the best if you like balance in a player plus neither are destined to play any field position on a regular basis.