Forum
Forum Navigation
Potential frontline SP trade
#71 · December 1, 2018, 8:08 am
I guess I am a bit on an island in that FOR THE PADRES ... both Kluber and Syndergaard overpriced and really are better value for contending teams (see LAD).
My issue with both is that they have only 3 years control ... three expensive years (inhibiting other adds) and will cost some major pieces in return. 2019 is not going to be a contending year ... so value is really only 2 years and that assumes all the other "IF" conditions surround the rest of the line-up go the Padres way that they really contend in 2020.
With that money and tradable prospects, would try to acquire lower cost / longer control assets to improve the entire roster (or bet on some to the trade pieces developing). Still want the assets used to get offense (not a lot coming up the system soon) and willing to gamble on the prospect pitching to deliver a few significant pitchers. Once the dust settles on 2019 ... maybe a clearer picture as to the holes that need to be filled and next winter focus on the big deal for money / prospects.
For 2019, go full bore to trade for Segura and/or Senzel plus sign Kiluchi.
Just say no to Kluber / Syndergaard.
#72 · December 1, 2018, 9:04 am
The only thing that makes it a "little" more plausible is that if your own Pitching prospects come of age sooner than expected.....or if in 2020 we are still not close to competing(say it aint so),we could trade Thor to a contender and recoup "some" of the lost prospects.
I believe the age difference between he and Kluber makes this a better possibility if we get Thor instead of Kluber.
I'm sure Preller is "always" considering the ability to trade again if/when necessary.
So if in 2020 we have a full rotation..ie:Lucchessi/Lamet/Kikuchi/Paddack/Quantrill/Allen/Baez etc....you could still trade Thor to fill another need.
Getting a lesser Starter may end up more of a hit or miss proposition...all or nothing .
#73 · December 1, 2018, 10:42 am
There is a good chance that neither Kluber nor Syndergaard get dealt this winter since neither team is in panic mode and like waiting for a clear WIN in a deal otherwise hold.
If that is the case, might we see them both on the market next winter (at a lower price given only 2 years control remaining). Likely some others may in play too. At least next winter the Padres will have a better understanding of what they have after 2019 shakes out Mejia, Urias, Tatis, Reyes, Cordero, Renfroe along with the pitchers Lauer, Lucchesi, Strahm, Richards, Paddack, Allen, Lamet, et. al.
Do think Preller would deal for either now but only as a WIN for the Padres by giving up parts he is very comfortable letting go. (consider players other teams scouting may value but the Padres ... behind closed doors ... don't really see them with that value). Clearly none of us know that dynamic.
#74 · December 1, 2018, 12:21 pm
The Mets system is incredibly weak and will be more depleted after the Cano/Diaz deal. You can easily make the argument that if Logan Allen is involved he would immediately become the Mets number one player in their system. Heck, even a guy like Quantrill would immediately become a 1 or 2 type arm in their system. I don’t understand the Padres fans who just want to hoard ALL of the farm. I think Preller has a list of prospects he will refuse to even consider dealing, Tatis Jr, Gore, Urias are the obvious ones, but I think Prellers list might be more lengthy than that. Guys like Paddack, Patino and Morejon come to mind. The Major luxury the Padres have is this incredibly stacked system. If you deal for a guy like Thor, using some combination of young ML talent and farm depth it accomplishes multiple things. One we are a better squad in 2019 with Noah taking the bump on opening day. Noah with Balls as his pitching coach, in Petco certainly could see Noah become a top 5 pitcher. Say in 2020 we don’t see the success we think we will, you don’t think AJ will be able to move Thor for a big package? We know from previous moves Preller has re-trade value in mind when making deals. Also if 2020 is a bust year, Preller himself might be in hot water. If Padres truly are going to be a contending franchise you have to start building a culture of winning. Thor would make us better now and in the future. I admit I don’t want to see any of the top tier prospects dealt, but I think it’s actually a great time to cash in some chips and get a big prize like Noah.
#75 · December 1, 2018, 1:29 pm
No problem with dealing the prospects (always will be a debate which ones) and Preller has often said they build a strong farm system to feed the ML club and / or trade to improve the club.
What is hard to assess is the strategy of the team they are trying to deal with (factoring in urgency of winning, their prospects, payroll limitations, and how they view their priority of needs) plus what they think of the players offered (not necessarily the same view as the seller). Then throw in other bidders for that same trade target.
Cleveland is the favorite to win in the AL Central (but appears to have some near term payroll issues) and likely has to strategically navigate that. I guess that led to the odd deal of Gomes (at $7MM) for basically nothing. However, in 2020 they will decline the expensive options on Encarnacion, Alonso, and Kipnis and not have a payroll problem. So what will motivate the Indians to deal Kluber? Could be looking at their last good opportunity to win ... so without Kluber they need immediate impact for a return in an area of need ... doubt prospects do much for them unless it a ML ready elite hitter and the key (Kluber will take more than just one prospect).
NYM made the Cano deal to win now ... apparently have some desire to control payroll too .... need offense. Not sure adding prospects does much for them. What would make them better in 2019 than having Thor on their staff?
The best chance to deal prospects as the key to trades is with non-contenders trying to convert a plus asset into multiple future assets.
Still think that LAD, Houston, and NYY are in the best positions to layout a compelling offer for Kluber or Syndergaard with a combo of ML players and prospects. I would watch out for Houston .. they have the pieces and both Verlander and Cole are FA after the season ... not going to be able to resign both (or maybe not either) so spending big to add Kluber / Syndergaard for the next 3 years at a reasonable price helps preserve their team solid in position players considering that at some point the will have to start paying Correa and Bregman ... and considering how they acquired Verlander and Cole a reasonable strategy.
#76 · December 2, 2018, 2:31 am
Quote from TatisJr on December 1, 2018, 12:21 pmI don’t understand the Padres fans who just want to hoard ALL of the farm.
What is there to gain by moving the farm for 2019? Rule 5 squeeze? We still have Yates, Stammen, Richard, Mitchell, Kennedy, Erlin, Asuaje, Garcia, Guerra, Pirela to potentially move before we even look at spots in competition.
Syndergaard is already a top pitcher, his value doesn't increase by losing a year of control.
There's basically no one publicly available that fits a position of need and has the age/control combination to ensure we aren't just wasting a year of value. How can you win a trade by targeting some 27/28 year old by wasting a year of their prime. We have to find a seller that has a Yelich, adding a Suarez or a high risk arm like Syndergaard shortens our window it doesn't open it.
#77 · December 2, 2018, 5:25 am
Love rumors! Per Mark Feinsand (MLB reporter) the Mets are interested in trading for Kluber from Cleveland ... unclear what the Indians would want (get) back. So I too can speculate on trade matches:
Kluber (33) ... 5.6 WAR ... 3 years control ... $17MM - $17.5MM - $18MM ... legit Cy Young arm to the Mets
Syndergaard (26) ... 4.2 WAR ... 3 years control ... in arbitration est. $5.9MM (then maybe $10MM and $15MM if pitches well) to the Indians
McNeil (27) 2B ... 2.7 WAR ... 6 years control ... league minimum for the next 2-3 years ... made expendable with the Cano deal (he has always just been a 2B), Cleveland wants to move on from Kipnis at 2B, some risk since just part year rookie stats ... to the Indians
Net: Mets upgrade starting pitching and Cleveland gives a little in SP but picks up a needed 2b and saves about $10MM in 2019 (more over the 3 years). Cleveland seems motivated by reducing payroll.
======
But why stop there .... could Clevealand then flip Syndergaard to SD where they may have a better match?
Snydergaard to SD for:
Renfroe (27) ... 1.6 WAR ... 5 years control ... league minimum for the next two
Hedges (26) .... 1.0 WAR ... 4 years control ... in arb. for about $1.8MM
Two prospects: one arm (not Gore or Paddack) would guess Allen or Quantrill; Naylor ... Cleveland drop a lot of bodies after 2019 including Alonso and Encarnacion so will need 1B/DH fill (plus his brother is in the Cleveland organization).
Cleveland lowers its payroll even more in 2019-21 while filling gaping holes at C / OF for 2019. SD gets a top of the rotation arm for 3 years ... takes on some salary which they can afford .... gives up some redundant pieces Hedges (Mejia) and Renfroe (Myers / Reyes / Cordero) plus Naylor who does not fit the NL going forward and one of the many prospect arms.
That just might work! Preller calling?
#78 · December 2, 2018, 5:31 am
If so inclined ... the Padres could take on 1 year of Kipnis instead of giving prospects. Kipnis (32) at $14.7MM is primarily a 2B with some OF and a LHH. Padres could use him at 2B (Urias at SS) until Tatis is ready mid season.
Given the Indians apparent desire to drop payroll ... might appeal a lot more than prospects.
#79 · December 2, 2018, 7:59 am
Sounds like a good opportunity for a 3 way deal....CLE-NYM-SDP
#80 · December 2, 2018, 9:48 am
Quote from David Nevin on December 2, 2018, 7:59 amSounds like a good opportunity for a 3 way deal....CLE-NYM-SDP
Preller has to be on the phone as we speak ... or was he already planting the seeds?