Quote from David Jay on November 28, 2018, 11:15 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 21, 2018, 4:29 pm

Holy smokes!

You wanna give up Myers/Segura/Lucchesi/Gore/Mejia/Margot/Yates/Stammen for Thor and Leake?

I don’t know what to say......

I believe the proper response is: "Oh, Henry!"

Quote from Brian Connelly on November 30, 2018, 7:07 pm

I know it's "wrong" but I am "double posting" this from the Offseason thread b/c pertinent to this thread

IMO Padres couldn't possibly be better positioned to play the Mets (Thor) & the Indians (Kluber) off against each other:  both teams now need exactly the same things:   MLB C, MLB OF, MLB/ready controllable SP.   HAS to have the effect of driving the price down for the Pads since each team knows they lose the opportunity to fill multiple MLB holes if Pads deal with the other.

I realize Kluber has the pedigree & durability, but he's 6 years older, vastly more mileage on arm & much more expensive in 2019.

If the Pads can pull a deal for Syndergaard without giving up Paddack I'd be SO psyched (also think Yates holds more value as a standalone than 1 of 4 pieces), but think I'd be willing to go UP TO:

Kluber:    Hedges, Lucchessi (or any LHP but Gore), Renfroe, prospect < top 100 MLB (#11+ our system/"50" grade)

Thor:        Hedges, Paddack, Margot, Yates OR young MLB RP OR prospect > top 50 MLB (#7+ our system/"55" grade).  We take back Juan Lagares to backfill RH CF & eat salary (Mets save roughly 10 MM in 2019)

Which would you guys pick?

 

Quote from TatisJr on November 30, 2018, 8:51 pm

This might sound too greedy, but I think we are underestimating Margot’s trade value. Yes he had a down year, but he’s still a kid who produced his rookie year, is great defensively and has the tools to be an All Star center fielder. I would be concerned about losing Margot, but a Jankowski/Laguares, Franchy combo could hold things down in center until Buddy is ready. If Preller packages Margot, Hedges/Mejia, Logan Allen and Eric Lauer plus takes on some salary like Laguares I think that could do be enough to get Thor. To me Noah’s age, stuff and experience would be the perfect fit for this team as it grows into a contender. I think AJ has to bullets and creativity to pull off a deal while keeping the young guns Joey, Baez, Paddack, Patino, Morejon and Quantrill.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 1, 2018, 1:43 am

TatisJr (really? 🙂 I hope that you're right on Margot, and we can find a way for "the" OF to be one of Renfroe or Reyes instead.

Now being reported that M's are "only" covering about 25 MM of Cano's $ owed.  To me, this means it's unlikely Mets would be interested in Myers in a trade (increases long term payroll > Thor).  But Indians might be OK or even prefer Myers due to the low 2019 salary.  MLBTR noted LAD are talking with Cleveland & proposing Yasiel Puig in a trade; but he makes 11 MM in '19 which cancels out a lot of the potential savings trading Kluber.

Prioritize Thor, but if can't get that done, don't let LAD beat us to Kluber!

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2018, 6:12 am

Well Indians don't have a MLB C on their 40 now..they need 2...Mets need a C... Both are perfect partners for Pads..and Pads now can pin them vs each other..maybe get Bauer (younger) cheaper SP option instead of Kluber..or Carrasco. b.but any of those 3 would work ..or Noah.. I would approach both trades a little different since both teams want to contend in 2019..both need OF help and both need BP help as well as C..

Clev- Renfroe + Hedges + Stanmen + Lucchesi + Baez

 

Mets - Margot + Hedges + MOREJON + Lucchesi

 

May need to sweeten the deal a bit but good bases ..i prefer to trade Joey (4.88 2n2nd half) Lauer (3.18 2nd half) as one seemed to regress and one seem to adapt sampke size but still... We could get Langares and D'Arnaud in Mets package as throw in place holders vet depth types....

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2018, 7:10 am

The Indians have me confused ... they are the odds on favorites to repeat as the AL Central champs ... have OF / RP holes to fill while apparently needing to trim their projected payroll for 2019 (although their payroll will plummet in 2020 ... so only a one year issue). So their 1st real move is to deal Gomes who was their #1 catcher (and very good) for nothing that will help them in 2019 leaving Perez (a long term back-up that can't hit) as their #1. Yes they shed $7MM in 2019 payroll but through club options was controlled for 2020 ($9MM) and 2021 ($11MM) but how did they not get more. Gomes had a 2.2 WAR last season and was an All-Star.

Roll that over to Hedges .... who had a 1.1 WAR, worse offensively (90 wRC+ vs. Gomes at 101), and rated lower defensively (dWAR 5.1 vs. Gomes at 8.0).  Lower cost yes (but still around $2MM) and 4 years control. So, maybe using local bias, we are vastly over-rating the trade value of Hedges?

Guessing if the Indians dealt Gomes just to drop $7MM and get no useful return ... they will not accept any trade that brings back a big contract (so cross of Myers or any of the LAD generated rumors including Puig / Wood).

On the flip side ... if their objective is to shed payroll (clearly it is) ... and using the Cano deal as a gauge of the market where Seattle had to include the best RP in baseball (league minimum with 4 years control), take two bad contracts (Bruce, Swarzak), kick in about $20MM, and just get two real prospects in a Rookie League OF and a AA pitcher ... maybe the price for Kluber wlll be lower than is talent would suggest.

Considering Cleveland seems to have opened the door to any of their pitchers ... Kluber may not be the one moved (if they move any). One guess is that Cleveland will want to attach Kipnis (one year control on a $14.7MM contract) more than looking for a max player return. If a team took Kluber and Kipnis and allocated Kipnis' deal over the 3 years of Kluber ... the effective cost of Kluber would just be $23MM or so per year ... still a bargain. Go that route (and considering what they did with Gomes) the players sent to Cleveland might not be that daunting.

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2018, 7:15 am

Don't forget that the Kikuchi bidding is this month with the Padres big players. Maybe not a Kluber or Syndergaard but if they add him they either ride the tide of their prospects or that makes some of the prospect more available for trade.

Of course, I still would prefer to use those trade chips for a top SS or 3B to help fix one of the worst hitting teams in MLB rather than a SP. I still see the Mets with one of the best SP staffs in MLB have a losing record because they can't hit (yet were better than the Pads).

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2018, 7:55 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 1, 2018, 6:12 am

Well Indians don't have a MLB C on their 40 now..they need 2...Mets need a C... Both are perfect partners for Pads..and Pads now can pin them vs each other..maybe get Bauer (younger) cheaper SP option instead of Kluber..or Carrasco. b.but any of those 3 would work ..or Noah.. I would approach both trades a little different since both teams want to contend in 2019..both need OF help and both need BP help as well as C..

Clev- Renfroe + Hedges + Stanmen + Lucchesi + Baez

 

Mets - Margot + Hedges + MOREJON + Lucchesi

 

May need to sweeten the deal a bit but good bases ..i prefer to trade Joey (4.88 2n2nd half) Lauer (3.18 2nd half) as one seemed to regress and one seem to adapt sampke size but still... We could get Langares and D'Arnaud in Mets package as throw in place holders vet depth types....

I have to say that you are one of the few fans who doesn't over value your own players....I believe you actually undervalue them too much.

No way we give up that package to Cleveland unless it's for Kluber....and even then it seems you could leave off Baez.....or add a prospect(or 2) a bit lower on our list.

Maybe I'm wrong on this one but Renfroe,Hedges,Stammen and Lucchesi all slot into their starting lineup and Baez is a top 3 prospect for just about every MLB team other than us.

Certainly too much for Carrasco or Bauer.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 1, 2018, 8:00 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 1, 2018, 7:15 am

Don't forget that the Kikuchi bidding is this month with the Padres big players. Maybe not a Kluber or Syndergaard but if they add him they either ride the tide of their prospects or that makes some of the prospect more available for trade.

Of course, I still would prefer to use those trade chips for a top SS or 3B to help fix one of the worst hitting teams in MLB rather than a SP. I still see the Mets with one of the best SP staffs in MLB have a losing record because they can't hit (yet were better than the Pads).

i agree.

"IF" we get Kikuchi I'd prefer to hold there on starting pitchers.

In 2020 we would have Kikuchi and Richards along with Lamet,Lucchesi,and the plethora of young guys coming in.

We

Need

Offense!