Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2018, 9:16 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 16, 2018, 3:00 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 1:16 pm

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Revisited my original proposal from beginning of thread.   Since Mets have shifted to a focus on MLB assets to surpass Thor’s WAR by himself, AND really have to get Realmuto to provide “enough” WAR back to Mets, “my” offer has changed.  But the first 4 pieces are still the same; just split between Mets & Marlins:  Renfroe, Mejia, Erlin, and Logan Allen (or Luis Patino i.e. #50-100 MLB prospect).

So it’s Lucchesi & Yates instead of J. Rosario & Avila, plus a prospect back from Marlins and no dead $.  Would I rather have Lucchesi & Yates less some $ than 3 prospects?  In a vacuum, of course yes.  But stepping back:  1)replacing Lucchesi with Syndergaard.  2) Non contending 2019 Pads likely deal Yates at deadline for…. prospect/s.  I feel like everyone keeps bringing up “why trade for Thor if not in contention in 2019", but are disregarding the fact that that applies to whatever 25 guys we have on the roster too.

Over simplified, but basically arguing to Mets that: Realmuto = Thor’s WAR for 2 yrs, Renfroe’s 5 yrs = Nimmo’s 4 yrs or Conforto’s 3 yrs (if 1 of them in Realmuto trade).  That leaves 5 yrs Lucchesi & 2 yrs Yates to = 1 yr of Syndergaard… it’s actually pretty close.  And remember, Mets have to feel compelled, or why would they do it?  Pretty easy to see FENN or others arguments that we actually don't have enough (if Marlins get any Mets assets in a 3 way trade).

You sure like giving up a lot for very little

What is the real reason the Mets would trade Syndergaard ? Something isn't right

If they are going for it in 2019...why trade one of your front line pitchers when you could trade him at the deadline if not in contention and get a nice package....something doesn't add up and just way to many red flags

LOL... not sure I'd label Syndergaard "very little".  They're not LOOKING to trade him; just SP is position of depth & would consider it if blown away.  No way for really any team to do that with Mets now that they signed Ramos @ C, so they keep him.

FYI reminder, here's what Boston gave up for 3 years of Chris Sale at likely exact same $ also as Syndergaard:

#1 prospect in MLB....... "Tatis, Jr."  PLUS estimated 10 MM $$

#67 prospect in MLB....."Logan Allen"

2 top 30 system prospects:   "Jeisson Rosario & Pedro Avila"

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 17, 2018, 10:36 am

OK, as a longtime Padres & Green Bay Packers fan with a bad cold, I admit to being in a crappy mood yesterday...

Henry:  Love the optimism on your Thor trade proposal, but you're basically substituting Margot for Renfroe (logical), Stammen for Yates (not logical), and Morejon who is 2-3 years away from MLB for "Realmuto" (Mejia + L.Allen/Patino + Erlin)... that's WAY too light for the Mets.

Even something like:  Margot/Lucchessi/Yates/Paddack  with Pads taking back Lagares & his bad contract might not be enough for Mets?  I don't even know if I'd do that.

BUT with the dust settling on the Mets, Marlins/Realmuto, and Indians.... we are now such a perfect match for Indians:

1)  They've trimmed 18 MM from 2019 payroll & gained Santana & Bauers (1B, 1B/OF) for Encarnacion, Yandy Diaz, & Yan Gomes (DH, 3B, C)

2)  They are no longer under financial pressure to deal a SP, OR to attach Kipnis' bad contract if they do.  Like the Mets, they now would have to have a compelling reason to trade Kluber (or Bauer).

3)  But their roster is massively unbalanced:  uber strong but all RH SP; but NO: C, OF, 3B.  Unclear how much of 18 MM "gained" could go to these needs.

4)  Seem highly unlikely to pursue Grandal last remaining FA starting caliber C.  Teams mentioned:  Angels, White Sox, Astros

5) Enter Padres.  not going to trade Mejia back; so:  Hedges, RH MLB corner OF, Yates,  "lesser" LH MLB SP for Kluber

What I like is there is WAY more flexibility / better match than the needle threading with Mets/Marlins.  Although Pads COULD still look to get Realmuto & flip him to Indians.... would not take that much else to balance the trade with Kluber's higher age & salaries (relative to Thor vs. Realmuto)

Myers' contract looks like a future burden and a logical contract trade, but I would prefer to keep him, trade Renfroe or Reyes.   Myers is way more athletic/dynamic & better defensively in LF.  Even though Tribe might also feel Myers is the best player, we might actually have to increase the trade assets to "get" Indians to take his 3 x 20 MM contract.  Indians could use a LH SP to backfill, but avoid Lucchesi in this trade if can...  Lauer?  Strahm? or even Erlin or Clay Richard plus a prospect instead?

The biggest factor working against a trade is the ease with which the Tribe will likely win the division again; making them more focused on constructing a playoff roster where Kluber/great top 3 SP helps more than regular season.  Still... too many holes with not enough $ to go around.  FENN, even you have to admit Pads HAVE to be the best potential trade match in MLB!

Pads get their #1 at "only" + 8 MM net in 2019, maybe +10 MM (with Hedges & Yates rising arb salaries) in 2020.

Indians really sitting pretty now 25 MM "saved" and plug 2 holes + improve pen + backfill SP with a LH.  Still needing 3B, OF, maybe pen.

Quote from fenn68 on December 17, 2018, 11:28 am

Sort of a precursor to any potential trade of a Padre catcher .... are we sure (or more importantly are the Padres sure) that Mejia is ready to step in as the #1 in 2019? The Green interview seemed quite clear that they love his POTENTIAL but right now is not good defensively so ????? Padres may want to hold on both ... see what they have in Mejia taking over in 2020 ... then make a trade decision on Hedges or Mejia next winter.

I do think the Indians and the Padres are a good match for a deal since Cleveland (as I outlined earlier) has no ML OF especially at the corners SD has an abundance of better corner OF options. Don't necessarily think they are panicking for a catcher though ... Perez almost beat out Gomes 2 years ago and is a plus defensive weak hitting option but serviceable. Add that that are a number of low cost FA (e.g. Hundley) still out there. They might be more interested (as the 3rd or 4th piece in a deal) A.Allen for the future.

Kluber is not only elite (4-5 WAR) he has a very favorable contract for that production at $17MM (considering the Padres just paid $15MM for the potential of one year of Richards). Plus the next two years at $17.5 and $18.0MM are CLUB options so there is a safety net for the buyer (or the Tribe) if Kluber breaks down and that is worth something. All that probably reduces the urgency to deal Kluber unless they get OF impact for the next two years at a minimum.

With Myers only making $3MM in 2019 and Kipnis coming off the books after the season to cover Myers' salary increase I do think Myers is a legit option in a deal with Cleveland saving then money for Kluber's contract for the next 3 years ... plus Santana is only on a 2 year deal and Bauer has only 2 years control.

Hard to guess how Cleveland views the Padre OF but the two I would want to keep to contend in 2020-21 are Myers and Reyes ... so would I deal them for Kluber and throw in Allen as their future catcher? The window for Cleveland is shutting down after 2020 (not much coming up in the system) so would guess they want a return that maximizes their chances of winning in 2019-20 then just move on to the total rebuild.

Not sure what others are offering ... still would watch out for LAD.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 3:19 pm

Morosi reports Indians still talking with teams about Corey Kluber...

Mentions Reds as actively engaged (speculates on Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammel)

others...  Brewers, Phillies, LAD but maybe based on prior speculation.

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:17 pm

Perhaps we can work something out with CLE for Senzel?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 27, 2018, 9:25 am

What do you guys make of Kevin Acee BLUNTLY repudiating John Paul Morosi's "Pads & Indians in trade talks with Kluber" report that was posted on the Pads website?

This seems pretty rare for 1 guy to basically say another is just dead wrong... but I've often felt that sometimes the MLBTR "news" is recycled old stuff when there's a lull with nothing happening...

Quote from Booster SD on December 27, 2018, 9:44 am

They were mentioning it again on MLB radio on XM late in the afternoon so I think that the talks have been revisited. They discuss potentially both Renfroe and Margot, plus a ML reliever, and a strong pitching prospect.

So Margot, Renfroe, Yates/Stammen, and Baez for Kluber. Does that beat what the LAD or CIN can offer? Thats a lot of ML players that can immediately help CLE who is all but guaranteed to take the AL Central, but needs some help to get past BOS, NYY, and HOU in the playoffs. I think this for CLE needs to be a difference maker in the playoffs, so SD being able to give them a high leverage ML RP could help SD make this trade.

Quote from fenn68 on December 27, 2018, 11:07 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 27, 2018, 9:44 am

They were mentioning it again on MLB radio on XM late in the afternoon so I think that the talks have been revisited. They discuss potentially both Renfroe and Margot, plus a ML reliever, and a strong pitching prospect.

So Margot, Renfroe, Yates/Stammen, and Baez for Kluber. Does that beat what the LAD or CIN can offer? Thats a lot of ML players that can immediately help CLE who is all but guaranteed to take the AL Central, but needs some help to get past BOS, NYY, and HOU in the playoffs. I think this for CLE needs to be a difference maker in the playoffs, so SD being able to give them a high leverage ML RP could help SD make this trade.

Morosi was mentioning it again this a.m. but suggested a twist were the Padres deal for Realmuto then include Hedges in the Kluber deal. Hedges - Margot - Reyes - Paddack? (guessing to get Realmuto, Renfroe would be a piece and likely Lucchesi - L.Allen +. (note: I think both Cleveland and Miami want players to plug in for 2019 ... low cost ... long control suggesting that Baez maybe not be close enough to the majors to be a compelling piece). Hard to guess which Padres pitching prospects OTHER teams value ... for all we know they really want Quantrill 🙂

Padres OF becomes Myers - Jankowski (L) - Cordero (L) - PTNL 4th OF? No OF top OF prospects near term. Don't see it unless they can hold out one of the OF and sub other pieces but that really does not work for Cleveland and not sure what ML level subs could replace the OF for Miami unless the all SP with Lucchesi - Lauer - L.Allen and maybe A.Allen keeping Renfroe (or Reyes if Renfroe is a better fit for Cleaveland).

Of course then the SP is Kluber - Strahm - ? - ? - ? while moving the payroll to about $100-110MM ... so not a lot of flexibility.

Having a tough time doing both deals and leaving enough Padre roster pieces to even get better. So, gamble on Mejia for the Padres #1 catcher? Deal Hedges, Margot, and Renfroe, a ML ready SP out of Lucchesi, Lauer, Allen, Quantrill, Nix, Paddack for 3 years of Kluber? Don't know.

Quote from Booster SD on December 27, 2018, 11:29 am

Well we all know that Dipoto is not done in SEA, could you see a payroll deal where we get some collection of Leake, Seager, Mallex Smith or Dee Gordon and cash? Gordon could hold down SS until the arrival of Tatis and then become super sub or CF.

Guess it depends on how much money ownership wants/can spend and how soon they want to be relative again.