Quote from Brian Connelly on December 15, 2018, 12:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2018, 7:29 pm

I have to go back on the Syndergaard discussion ... 1) why would the Mets give up 4.2 of current WAR for prospects while not replacing (and increasing) the expected WAR for 2019 ... they did not just deal for Cano to not compete.

2) Padres just don't have the trade chips to improve the 2019 Mets. the 3)  NYM-Mia-SD had some logic but does not look as though Mia would settle for less than ML / ML ready impact pieces ... and the Padres don't have enough of those (especially since it appears Mia is fixated on hitters).

Keuchel is possible (it is only money) but IF they want to pursue front of the rotation current talent ... the Padres need to dangle those prospect in front of non-contenders (e.g. AZ and Greinke)

1)  This is absolutely correct.  Mets won't deal Thor unless they think they can get back > WAR esp in 2019

2)  This is also true.  Once Mets "went for it" with Cano/Diaz trade, intent to contend obvious = want MLB talent in return not prospects.

3)  3 way trade with Marlins "has some logic" is an understatement:  Realmuto is Mets #1 target, Thor is ours, and they match up almost perfectly for the 1st 2 years in cost & WAR.   Marlins well aware & especially sensitive about squeezing every last ounce of value out of one of best assets in MLB after criticized for maybe not doing so last year with Stanton & Yelich....  BUT they have to trade him.  And a report as of yesterday cites specific Mets prospects they're interested in as part of a deal; they want the "headliner" to be MLB talent, but simple logic says the one bad team in the LOADED NL East is going to be interested in building their Farm (their #1 prospect is a "50" grade, so would be #11 AT BEST in our system).  2 of the 3 prospects they like just finished their first season in Rookie ball.  So...

I refuse to believe there's not a deal here.  I think the Padres "interest" in Keuchel is a not very believable smoke screen to try to get Miami off the dime.  Mets' in Grandal probably more "real", but who knows.

I didn't include a Mets OF in the 3 -way trade due to increased complexity, but it was clear to me if we traded Renfroe that they might turn around and trade LH Nimmo or Conforto.  So what if it's:  Mets OF, Mejia, and a lower level (below full season) prospect from us for Realmuto to Mets.  Their main asset out to get him is replaced by Renfroe.

On the down side, now have to account for the WAR lost by losing say Nimmo.  BUT our involvement led to getting Realmuto at all, and prevented Mets from having to give up other asset/s they felt they couldn't afford to....

I guess the question is:  if we shift what we were going to give Miami in a straight up trade for JTR  to the Mets (Patino & Erlin but could be others) is that "enough" for losing an OF in trade on top of Thor?

IF LAD are a serious threat to do this same 3-way trade, I feel in the Pads 50% or less of LAD payroll situation, we would HAVE to outbid them to win the trade; our only means of competing with LAD is having major excess value from young players & a trade like this.  If Thor goes to LAD, Pads in all seriousness should just start selling their long contracts, minimize payroll, suck for 3 years, and then see where they/division (i.e. LAD) are at in 2022.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 15, 2018, 5:22 am

Quote from Cptjack on December 14, 2018, 7:29 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 14, 2018, 5:47 pm

What if the deal is centered around an injury prone Corner OF/1b/3B with no natural position on a bad deal?

You guys still wouldn’t want Syndergaard if the cost was Myers/Hedges/Stammen/Quantrill?

Entirely different discussion. You're now talking about moving a net neutral or net negative asset in Myers and a no future value guy in Stammen.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 14, 2018, 5:55 pm

Apparently some here think we van win it all with Lauer Lucchesi and Nix going against Strasburgh Scherzer and Corbin in the NLCS in the next 3 4 5 yrs...

Who thinks that? And who thinks we'll be playing the ancient Nationals rotation in 3, 4, 5 years?

Except you said you still wouldn’t want Thor even if we “dealt exclusively from positions of substantial depth”.

So I was assuming you basically didn’t want him at any cost......

I was just pointing out that there could  be a type of deal that would be beneficial to the Padres even for an “injury prone” starter.

Also one that improves the Mets for 2019.

Have you seem their Bullpen?

Maybe replace Stammen with Yates.

Hell give them both!

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2018, 6:18 am

Mets ... to improve and contend ... need to keep Snydergaard and add offense logically in CF (RHH) and catcher. Never really know what flexibility they have payroll-wise but makes too much sense for them not to sign Grandal as the first option. (of course, Grandal may be asking way too much). Alternatively, sign Pollack for CF and deal for a serviceable catcher.

Mets have to be think more than just 2019 and Wheeler is a FA after 2019 and DeGrom is a FA after 2020 (although they likely will break the bank to extend him). Syndergaard and Matz have 3 years control and keeping both stabilizes a rotation to match up with WASH.

If the Mets really want to contend they need to sign FA and preserve their SP. If the do deal a SP .... need massive current offense in return. I guessing they go the FA route with a payroll "only" at $140MM.

Quote from Cptjack on December 15, 2018, 7:54 am

Quote from David Nevin on December 15, 2018, 5:22 am

Except you said you still wouldn’t want Thor even if we “dealt exclusively from positions of substantial depth”.

Yes, the context there is minor league depth and tying up future value a year early. I would trade Myers, Stammen, Yates for Syndergaard in a heartbeat.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 10:19 am

I haven't given up, but am losing hope for a big SP move with Indians solving their payroll issues with recent trades, and threading the needle with  Mets & Marlins seeming increasingly unlikely.  If nothing happens I'll be disappointed & frustrated, but can live with Syndergaard & Kluber staying put, and Realmuto going wherever.  But there's one outcome Padres can't live with...

... Thor going to LAD.  I would argue that with LAD's massive payroll advantage, the Padres simply can't allow an elite way below market player like Thor they could theoretically get (3 way trade), to go to LAD BECAUSE Pads decide a trade package is "too much to give up"... Farm system/ability to trade is the only competitive advantage we have (slightly) over LAD.  In other words, we can't allow Thor to go to LAD in a trade b/c we "didn't want to include" an elite prospect that would have made the difference in us winning the trade.  I would still not include Tatis Jr no matter what.  But the harsh reality is:  if LAD get Thor (whether we can "do anything" about it or not) Pads might as well just trade out Myers & Hosmer big long contracts, have MLB low payroll, and let the farm grow organically & just kick the "compete" can to 4 years down the road; the impact of him being on the best team in the division at way below market  AND not on our team would be impossible to overcome for the next 3 years.  Conversely, having him while LAD don't might get us in striking distance 2020-2021

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 16, 2018, 11:20 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2018, 6:18 am

Mets ... to improve and contend ... need to keep Snydergaard and add offense logically in CF (RHH) and catcher. Never really know what flexibility they have payroll-wise but makes too much sense for them not to sign Grandal as the first option. (of course, Grandal may be asking way too much). Alternatively, sign Pollack for CF and deal for a serviceable catcher.

Mets have to be think more than just 2019 and Wheeler is a FA after 2019 and DeGrom is a FA after 2020 (although they likely will break the bank to extend him). Syndergaard and Matz have 3 years control and keeping both stabilizes a rotation to match up with WASH.

If the Mets really want to contend they need to sign FA and preserve their SP. If the do deal a SP .... need massive current offense in return. I guessing they go the FA route with a payroll "only" at $140MM.

Except that the Mets are serious about wanting to trade him......so they must feel differently or know something about Thor we don’t.

They obviously like the SP depth more than they like their offense going forward.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 1:16 pm

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Revisited my original proposal from beginning of thread.   Since Mets have shifted to a focus on MLB assets to surpass Thor’s WAR by himself, AND really have to get Realmuto to provide “enough” WAR back to Mets, “my” offer has changed.  But the first 4 pieces are still the same; just split between Mets & Marlins:  Renfroe, Mejia, Erlin, and Logan Allen (or Luis Patino i.e. #50-100 MLB prospect).

So it’s Lucchesi & Yates instead of J. Rosario & Avila, plus a prospect back from Marlins and no dead $.  Would I rather have Lucchesi & Yates less some $ than 3 prospects?  In a vacuum, of course yes.  But stepping back:  1)replacing Lucchesi with Syndergaard.  2) Non contending 2019 Pads likely deal Yates at deadline for…. prospect/s.  I feel like everyone keeps bringing up “why trade for Thor if not in contention in 2019", but are disregarding the fact that that applies to whatever 25 guys we have on the roster too.

Over simplified, but basically arguing to Mets that: Realmuto = Thor’s WAR for 2 yrs, Renfroe’s 5 yrs = Nimmo’s 4 yrs or Conforto’s 3 yrs (if 1 of them in Realmuto trade).  That leaves 5 yrs Lucchesi & 2 yrs Yates to = 1 yr of Syndergaard… it’s actually pretty close.  And remember, Mets have to feel compelled, or why would they do it?  Pretty easy to see FENN or others arguments that we actually don't have enough (if Marlins get any Mets assets in a 3 way trade).

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 2:48 pm

... and that probably does it for this thread...

Mets To Sign Wilson Ramos

By Connor Byrne | December 16, 2018 at 4:44pm CDT

4:44pm: It is indeed $19MM guaranteed, tweets the New York Times’ James Wagner, who adds that Ramos will earn $8.25MM next season and $9.25MM in 2020. The contract also includes either a $10MM club option or a $1.5MM buyout for 2021.

3:45pm: The Mets have reached an agreement with free-agent catcher Wilson Ramos, pending a physical, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Daniel Alvarez Montes of ElExtrabase previously reported the two sides had agreed to a contract. It’s a two-year pact, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. The deal is worth $19MM, per Jon Heyman of Fancred, though Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports Ramos will receive a $19.5MM guarantee and an option for 2021. Post colleague Ken Davidoff adds that Ramos could make up to $26MM.

The Mets’ addition of Ramos takes them out of the running for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, whom they had been aggressively pursuing this week, as Martino notes. They’re the second team to reportedly drop out of the Realmuto sweepstakes in the past couple days, joining the NL East rival Braves.

Quote from 3fingersplit on December 16, 2018, 3:00 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 16, 2018, 1:16 pm

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Revisited my original proposal from beginning of thread.   Since Mets have shifted to a focus on MLB assets to surpass Thor’s WAR by himself, AND really have to get Realmuto to provide “enough” WAR back to Mets, “my” offer has changed.  But the first 4 pieces are still the same; just split between Mets & Marlins:  Renfroe, Mejia, Erlin, and Logan Allen (or Luis Patino i.e. #50-100 MLB prospect).

So it’s Lucchesi & Yates instead of J. Rosario & Avila, plus a prospect back from Marlins and no dead $.  Would I rather have Lucchesi & Yates less some $ than 3 prospects?  In a vacuum, of course yes.  But stepping back:  1)replacing Lucchesi with Syndergaard.  2) Non contending 2019 Pads likely deal Yates at deadline for…. prospect/s.  I feel like everyone keeps bringing up “why trade for Thor if not in contention in 2019", but are disregarding the fact that that applies to whatever 25 guys we have on the roster too.

Over simplified, but basically arguing to Mets that: Realmuto = Thor’s WAR for 2 yrs, Renfroe’s 5 yrs = Nimmo’s 4 yrs or Conforto’s 3 yrs (if 1 of them in Realmuto trade).  That leaves 5 yrs Lucchesi & 2 yrs Yates to = 1 yr of Syndergaard… it’s actually pretty close.  And remember, Mets have to feel compelled, or why would they do it?  Pretty easy to see FENN or others arguments that we actually don't have enough (if Marlins get any Mets assets in a 3 way trade).

You sure like giving up a lot for very little

What is the real reason the Mets would trade Syndergaard ? Something isn't right

If they are going for it in 2019...why trade one of your front line pitchers when you could trade him at the deadline if not in contention and get a nice package....something doesn't add up and just way to many red flags