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Potential frontline SP trade
#121 · December 7, 2018, 10:49 am
Although I doubt Senzel will be really on the move since CINN would have to sign a premium CF (Pollack) and extend Gennett (big money and not sure he wants to be extended) to make Senzel surplus with high trade value.
If all that happened ... and CINN has said they want to start winning ... the return has to be SP (one of the worst SP staffs in MLB in one of the worst ballparks to pitch) that is low cost / long control. Low cost because CINN is not a big money team and they would have spent a ton of payroll on Votto, Pollack, Gennett, and a number of the other position players are moving up the arbitration cost chart.
Since they really don't have much near term SP support coming in their system .... not sure which other teams have that low cost / long term control SP that need a Senzel. As good as Senzel may be ... not sure how many teams would give up equal quality from a SP since need more SP and arguable harder to find that a 3B. Would put CINN in a bid ... how "motivated" are they to win over preserving an elite talent on the bench?
Not a great match with SD for SP since CINN was near the bottom (5.02 ERA) vs. a worse SD (5.09 ERA).
Nice to speculate but the odds of any mix of players SD would be potentially willing to deal probably has little appeal to CINN.
so, on to Franco?
#122 · December 7, 2018, 10:50 am
Quote from Booster SD on December 7, 2018, 10:30 amThese last couple of trades are based on them getting Pollock. Which maybe is better if they dont. Then we can add Margot to the mix to make it happen. I think that Margot can be replaced in a platoon situation with a FA and Jank, than it will be to find a long term solution for 3B.
So Margot, Renfroe, Allen, and Avila for Senzel.
Replace Renfroe with another pitching prospect ... then maybe.
#123 · December 7, 2018, 10:51 am
so, on to Franco?
NO!!!
Just sign Moose.
#124 · December 7, 2018, 11:16 am
I understand Gyorko is now available 🙂
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Considering the Padres are already paying $5MM of his contract (last year of his deal) and StL just added Goldschmidt and will move Carpenter to 3B ... maybe there is some room for negotiation. We are talking about $9MM (remaining 2019 owed by StL and a buyout of 2020 club option).
Maybe Gyroko and $4.5MM from StL for a non-prospect .... StL saves $4.5MM and SD gets Gyorko for 1 year only at an incremental $4.5MM. Doubt anyone is breaking down the door to deal for him. Consider today (not his history with SD):
2017: 272/341/472 (813 OPS)
2018: 262/346/416 (762 OPS)
#125 · December 7, 2018, 11:56 am
Of course, other possibility that was shot down early in offseason but COULD re-emerge is Cincy trading Suarez.
Cincy desperate for P's, FA's going to avoid a rebuild in hitter's paradise like the plague. San Diego could easily represent Reds' best option of gaining young controllable MLB/close SP's if they're willing to deal from depth.
Proven producer in prime signed through 2024 very reasonably (2025 option). But Reds are a low payroll team like us with an obvious replacement. So Suarez could be something very similar to what was discussed above.
BUT another option would be to somehow involve Wil Myers. The total owed to Wil & Suarez is very similar, but spread out very differently. Reds would not want Myers' big salaries.... UNLESS Pads absorbed some of Reds' atrocious contract to Homer Bailey: He is due 23 MM in 2019 plus a 5 MM buyout in '20.
Pads get: Suarez & Bailey & Reds pay 18 MM towards Bailey in 2019, & "45" grade top 30 prospect (not on 40-man roster)
Reds get: Myers & any LHP but Gore or Morejon & Pedro Avila (40-man) & 5 MM from Pads in 2021 & 2022 towards Myers.
This shakes out as: Pads increase payroll by 9 MM net in 2019, decrease it by 4-6 MM each year 2020-2022, and increase by Suarez' contract 2023 & 24 + prob buyout in 25. Reds get exact opposite. Both teams deal from depth & resolve a logjam. Pads plug their major hole and trade 3 year 20 MM per contract in contention window for a 5 year 10-11 MM contract per, but weaken 2019 SP depth & use up some limited 2019 $. Would really need to overpay to get either Kikuchi or Sonny Gray. Roster set IMO after that.
5 MM to Reds indirectly '20 (buyout) + in 21 & 22 directly lowers Myers for them to 15 MM those years; great value total @ "4/49" barely over 12 MM AAV. Myers way more athletic/dynamic that Suarez, and could end up going OFF in Cincy; but Pads need 3B so badly & replace the RH power. Bailey might just be a Phil Hughes cut, but maybe change of scenery plus Balsley can get SOMEthing out of him?
Definitely prefer a trade for Senzel over this (feels like an overpay?), but would be surprised if Reds did that.
#126 · December 11, 2018, 10:17 am
Well, we might have a good comp for getting Gray out of NYY. The Pirates just sent Nova to CWS for a young pitcher and international pool money. Player yet to be named, so not overwhelming cost and their 2018 stats are similar. Actually, Nova threw more innings, and a lower ERA.
#127 · December 11, 2018, 11:12 am
Quote from Booster SD on December 11, 2018, 10:17 amWell, we might have a good comp for getting Gray out of NYY. The Pirates just sent Nova to CWS for a young pitcher and international pool money. Player yet to be named, so not overwhelming cost and their 2018 stats are similar. Actually, Nova threw more innings, and a lower ERA.
Think Gray will command a better return (not sure how much). Reasons include Gray with a much better WAR overall but maybe most intriguing is that Gray was a combination of bad Home / good Away while Nova was good Home / bad Away. So take away the Home bias for both players and the odds of Gray being the much more productive player stems from better road stats and a new home environment.
Still for 1 year of risk on Gray (and about $9MM contract) ... should not be a major prospect as part of the return.
#128 · December 11, 2018, 11:25 am
In a purely made up scenario by me based on a rumor that suggested Cleveland is discussing moving Encarnacion (1 year / $27.7MM) and 3B Yordy Diaz to TB for little more than dropping salary consideration .... does that improve the Padres chances to add Kluber?
If the Indians move most of Encarnacion's salary and Kluber"s they should be under $100MM payroll of 2019 and then lower next season with the FA of Kipnis. That seems to be a significant goal while still competing. To that end, they would need the OF they need now and a replacement for Encarnacion.
To the rescue are the Padres and offer Myers ($3MM) AND Renfroe (league minimum) plus some prospects which would preserve the low payroll for the Indians this season and next with the increase for Myers offset by the departure of Kipnis. Indians end up with the desired payroll level and two longer term bats (their system is not stocked with near term hitters) so with Lindor and Ramirez as the base they still can contend in the AL Central for the next few years given the SP remaining.
For the Padres. solves their LF overstock problem (Cordero steps in?) and only moves their payroll to near $100MM with about $20MM falling off next season with the dead money going off the books. So, still room to strategically add a piece or two for 2020.
#129 · December 11, 2018, 6:12 pm
Cordero instead of Renfro ?......you have to be kidding
If I'm Renfro and was dumb enough to read this forum I would want out of San Diego because everybody else sure wants me out.
I still maintain that Renfro is the ONE guy to keep in this whole outfield " overstock " problem
#130 · December 11, 2018, 6:28 pm
If Renfroe read and cared about what we think, I would want him gone.😂😂😂
I like Hunter a lot and think he’s been a bright spot despite Andy Green messing with him. It’s not that I want Hunter traded. I just think he’s the likeliest to be traded of the corner outfielders because of Myers contract, Franmil and Cordero’s ceiling is higher and they are AJ’s guys.