Quote from Booster SD on December 6, 2018, 11:47 am

Reading on MLBTR that CIN is making a push to sign Pollack. I think that could be a nice chance for SD, since rumor was possibly moving Senzel to CF to get his bat in the line up in CIN. So maybe if they sign Pollack, then they will need an inexpensive corner OF, and SP. Im not sure if they need Catching help or not. So what Renfroe/Reyes, Luchessi/Laur, Paddock/Allen, and Hedges/Mejia for either Senzel or Suarez?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2018, 11:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2018, 11:08 am

Looks as though Cleveland just extended Carrasco by locking his 2020 option ($10.25MM) and adding 2 more years plus a vesting option for one more (2023) ... don't know the dollars yet.

Could look at it in two ways .... with a longer term lock on Carrasco makes it "safer" to deal Kluber or Bauer. Could also suggest they have committed a chunk of their future payroll space (and still have to deal with Lindor in arbitration) which could make adding any expense long term contract less likely.

Odds are neither move but if one did ... still think LAD since they have the near term players the Indians may like plus after seeing what has happened in the NL East might need to prep for the playoffs now.

=====

side: Cleveland has been trying to dump Kipnis since last winter and has found zero interest .... probably not a great flip candidate and frankly only a 2B with some limited fill in the OF which does not help his market.

The ACES client will now be under contract in Cleveland through at least the 2022 campaign.

In addition to his already-exercised 2019 option, Carrasco’s 2020 option will be picked up in advance. He’ll also receive an additional $27MM in guarantees, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link). That comes in the form of consecutive $12MM salaries for 2021 and 2022 along with a $3MM buyout on a 2023 vesting/club option that is valued at $14MM.

In total, then, the Indians owe Carrasco $44MM in salary for his next four seasons. That’s an incredible bargain for a pitcher who has unquestionably been one of the game’s best, even if he’ll likely move past his prime years during the duration of the agreement

Me:  Math doesn't quite add up, but it's in 11.5 - 12 MM AAV for 4-5 years control... Amazing

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2018, 12:08 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 6, 2018, 11:47 am

Reading on MLBTR that CIN is making a push to sign Pollack. I think that could be a nice chance for SD, since rumor was possibly moving Senzel to CF to get his bat in the line up in CIN. So maybe if they sign Pollack, then they will need an inexpensive corner OF, and SP. Im not sure if they need Catching help or not. So what Renfroe/Reyes, Luchessi/Laur, Paddock/Allen, and Hedges/Mejia for either Senzel or Suarez?

Booster, I like it!   They would probably want Mejia.  Their main C is Tucker Barnhart?

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2018, 12:28 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 6, 2018, 11:47 am

Reading on MLBTR that CIN is making a push to sign Pollack. I think that could be a nice chance for SD, since rumor was possibly moving Senzel to CF to get his bat in the line up in CIN. So maybe if they sign Pollack, then they will need an inexpensive corner OF, and SP. Im not sure if they need Catching help or not. So what Renfroe/Reyes, Luchessi/Laur, Paddock/Allen, and Hedges/Mejia for either Senzel or Suarez?

I don't recall a trade where 3 major league players and a top prospect were all traded for ONE prospect.

Pretty sure it's the other way around.

Trades like this just do not happen.

For Suarez maybe.....but no way on earth AJ trades 3 major league players and Paddack/Allen for Senzel.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2018, 12:30 pm

On the top 100 list Senzel is #6....and Mejia is #26.

The difference between the two is "not" Renfroe + Luchessi + Paddack.

 

Quote from fenn68 on December 6, 2018, 12:55 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 6, 2018, 12:08 pm

Quote from Booster SD on December 6, 2018, 11:47 am

Reading on MLBTR that CIN is making a push to sign Pollack. I think that could be a nice chance for SD, since rumor was possibly moving Senzel to CF to get his bat in the line up in CIN. So maybe if they sign Pollack, then they will need an inexpensive corner OF, and SP. Im not sure if they need Catching help or not. So what Renfroe/Reyes, Luchessi/Laur, Paddock/Allen, and Hedges/Mejia for either Senzel or Suarez?

Booster, I like it!   They would probably want Mejia.  Their main C is Tucker Barnhart?

Senzel would be a very good get (I keep going back to him but the add of Pollack ... if it happens ... makes it at least possible). The one key IF condition is what CINN plans with Gennett who is an elite 2B but only 1 year remaining before FA. The could opt to either trade Gennett and just put Senzel at 2B or AAA Senzel and just wait until Gennett departs ... both would kill a trade opportunity. However, they do like Gennett and may try to extend him since they do want to move to a winning mode sooner than later and Senzel presents a greater risk than the proven Gennett but probably has better trade value (upside, low cost, 6 year control vs. expensive and 1 year control).

I expect they would want SP ... probably an immediate help (but cheap and long control) and a depending on how good that piece is ... a second prospect.

They have little near term pitching coming in their system ... an no pitcher is going to sign as a FA to pitch in CINN unless the pitcher is desperate. Their OF corners are OK and don't under estimate Barnhart's value under 4 years of control at a reasonable contact for a guy with a career line of 254/328/369 which is good for a catcher. Doubt either Hedges or Mejia would be viewed as a significant upgrade.

So, maybe Lauer or Lucchesi at the lead piece and then maybe an Avila. As much as I like Senzel ... he is still just a prospect and both Lauer (6 years control) and Lucchesi (5 years control) have demonstrated SOME ML proficiency so not going overboard. Possible CINN could go just pitching prospects ... but likely near-ML ready (like Senzel) ... so maybe Senzel (MLB #6) for Padre Top 100 SP (Allen or Paddack?) and a SP prospect at the tail end (or just out) of the Top 100) like Quantrill. CINN gets two arm that could be in the ML by the end of the season.

?????????

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 6, 2018, 1:32 pm

That's how I see it as well.

Maybe Allen/Quantrill/low level infielder(Ruiz/Miller/Arias?)

That still seems like alot but considering we need offense and have arms to spare(if there is such a thing) I would be OK with it.

Plus I suspect we would be the one calling them....so would have to pony up a bit.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 7, 2018, 10:02 am

FENN:  So, maybe Lauer or Lucchesi at the lead piece and then maybe an Avila. As much as I like Senzel ... he is still just a prospect and both Lauer (6 years control) and Lucchesi (5 years control) have demonstrated SOME ML proficiency so not going overboard. Possible CINN could go just pitching prospects ... but likely near-ML ready (like Senzel) ... so maybe Senzel (MLB #6) for Padre Top 100 SP (Allen or Paddack?) and a SP prospect at the tail end (or just out) of the Top 100) like Quantrill. CINN gets two arm that could be in the ML by the end of the season.

Quote from David Nevin on December 6, 2018, 1:32 pm

That's how I see it as well.

Maybe Allen/Quantrill/low level infielder(Ruiz/Miller/Arias?)

That still seems like alot but considering we need offense and have arms to spare(if there is such a thing) I would be OK with it.

Plus I suspect we would be the one calling them....so would have to pony up a bit.

David,   You are correct that prospect for prospect trades are very rare & fundamentally unikely.   Reds would have to have a screaming need at C (which they don't, as Fenn correctly figured) for something like that to happen.  And you might be right that the difference between #6 & #26 prospects is not (quite) as large as Booster proposed...

But just substitute "Tatis" for the name "Senzel" to get an idea what it would take for Cincy to trade him; even being blocked at his primary position...  I wouldn't even consider a straight up trade of Tatis for 3 years of below market Syndergaard.  So Fenn:  Lauer & Avila for Senzel is off the charts ludicrously low.   Even Logan Allen & Quantrill = #76 + #>100 for #6  doesn't come close to adding up (on top of being a prospect for prospect/s trade), although it is a more logical one.  Likely outcome is 1 SP succeeds, other fails, you're trading an extremely likely good, possible all-star 3B for a #4 SP.  Our Farm would actually be even stronger with either of these trades.

David, you're much closer adding a significant low level asset from our farm.  But I would go even further:  why not add Renfroe to the trade?  Pads:  Settles the lineup with Myers to LF, Reyes/Cordero to RF.  Urias/Tatis/Senzel play together for 2 months at AAA and all come up June 1st or whatever.  Can you imagine?!?  Both of Reds corner OF are young LH guys.  Renfroe fits but if they want to flip him, he's a significant trade asset.  So I end up just below where Booster started for Senzel:  Renfroe, any LHP but Gore or Morejon, Quantrill, lower level INF prospect.  Subs INF prospect for Mejia (huge drop), Quantrill for Paddack.

Quote from Booster SD on December 7, 2018, 10:30 am

These last couple of trades are based on them getting Pollock. Which maybe is better if they dont. Then we can add Margot to the mix to make it happen. I think that Margot can be replaced in a platoon situation with a FA and Jank, than it will be to find a long term solution for 3B.

So Margot, Renfroe, Allen, and Avila for Senzel.