Quote from JasonE135 on March 8, 2020, 4:23 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on March 7, 2020, 12:33 pm

I would personally take Quantrill every day of the week and twice on Sunday. But that will not happen. I know they are saying it is a competition, but it isn't. Lucchesi hasn't been in the minors for 2 full years. They will not send him down now. He will never be sent down again.

I think we know what we are getting with Lucchesi.  He will give you steady but unspectacular production. Honestly, his lifetime 4.14 ERA is quite a bit better than the mlb average of 4.51 last year. I think the Padres prize that. Quantrill had a 3.32 ERA last year before the last month of the season. If he can keep that kind of production up for a full year he can be a #2. I just think the Padres will start him in the minors this year. He will be the first call up when an injury happens as long as he is pitching well. If he can show consistency at the ml level, he will force a trade. Until he proves dependable, he will be on the back and forth shuttle.

Sorry, maybe I should have added a few words to my original post.

"If he(Quantrill) can show consistency at the ml level, he will force a trade OF JOEY LUCCHESI."

Quantrill will almost certainly start in the minors. There was never a real competition. He will come up as soon as an injury occurs. If he can pitch consistently like he did the first part of last year, the rotation spot will be his.

Quote from fenn68 on March 8, 2020, 5:11 pm

Whether it is Gore, Patino, Morejon, Baez, Lawson, Bolanos, or Quantrill .... by 2022 we should see Lucchesi dealt to make room for one of them even under the assumption that one will replace Richards in 2021 and another Davies in 2022. Sooner if they resign Richards for 2021.

Not really a question of IF ... more a question of WHEN.

Quote from onlypads on March 8, 2020, 8:57 pm

Quote from fenn68 on March 8, 2020, 11:56 am

Q has pitched only 4 innings is ST games ... not much of a sample size. Lucchesi only 4.2 innings ... not much of a sample size. Neither one is going to win (or lose) a starting slot based on that in ST. Lucchesi has the advantage of a 4.18 ERA in in 30 starts in 2019 vs. Quantrill's 5.16 ERA (5.69 ERA as a starter ... 18 starts). Quantrill has to earn that slot by pitching well over an extend run ...maybe in long relief or in AAA and potentially move back to a starting role for the Padres mid-season.

We don't know what is happening in the side sessions, back lot ... that probably is a bigger factor along with each getting 2-3 more ST appearances.

Last year Paddack was in the running for starting on a very bad team without a SP staff of any quality ... good grief Margevicius made the starting rotation ... the bar was very low for all 5 slots ... the bar is much higher in 2020.

I dont think anybody is crowning Q yet. I think we are saying we want to be competitive and if after ST it is true that Q appears to be the pitcher, well then Q should get the spot.

There is little room for error in the NL west.  A team working from a deficit of experience may need to take appropriate risks to be a victor. Now whether starting Q is that risk, or whether the FO is even inclined to take such a risk are separate questions from that of, who we as posters believe is the ideal selection.

I am reluctant to settle for PROVEN when I believe as a team we are more akin to a garage start up. I think we need to anticipate the market and our strengths and be as agile as possible. Hence, if Q appears to be in a better spot after ST we should start him--I just dont think we can afford to revert to proven.

Quote from fenn68 on March 9, 2020, 6:15 am

I have no issue with Quantrill beating out Lucchesi (not one of my favorites) ... just having a difficult time determining the criteria that would allow him to do that out of ST.

At the core, I have little faith in ST game performances as the criteria for that decision. See Margevicius, John Roskos and J. Blash. Early in ST they are facing a combo of minor leaguers and veteran ML just getting into shape. Pitchers usually are not pitching the normal mix as they work on improving a part of their mix. Add that players get in shape at different paces. Maybe the last week of ST has some impact but nothing that has happened so for.

Then, how many innings / appearances are needed to make a judgement? So far only about 4 innings each ... not nearly enough to the over 100 innings each in 2019 where based on full season results Lucchesi was a full run a game better against ML line-ups both home and away.

Sure if Quantrill is deemed to out pitch Lucchesi he should get the #5 slot ... but he will just not have the opportunity in ST to so. Add that we have little insight into the side sessions / back field evaluations which may be as (or more) important that the limited game observations.

My guess the #5 to start the season is Lucchesi's to loose with an abysmal ST ... Quantrill's opportunity will come IF he performs in regular season competition (pen or AAA).

Bottom line is that I don't see ST giving Quantrill the platform to knock Lucchesi out of the #5 slot unless Lucchesi opens the door. I guess others may see ST differently.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 9, 2020, 7:11 am

I agree there is little either could do to change the decision of who is #5 that has probably already been made.

Barring injury or as Fenn said....something we won't know about or even see that could develop in bullpen sessions or back field work.

S.T. ERA  or K/BB isn't going to tell anyone anything they don't already know.

 

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 9, 2020, 7:43 am

Well there you have it....I sure hope players don't read that the fix is in and that spring training is a hoax for competition......at least for the pitching staff

The winner is L

Thanks....you both just saved me about 3k by not going to Arizona again this year for Spring Training or any future years for that matter...it's clearly a waste of time as the roster has been settled already.....I can save the trip and just watch it local at Petco when it actually counts.

 

Quote from sportwarrior on March 9, 2020, 9:12 am

I really want Q to prove himself over these next few weeks, because we stand to be in better position rotation-wise if he takes that next step. I've been saying this all offseason, but L is just not a long term part of a playoff caliber rotation. Saturday's start proves precisely why. That start IS Luchessi. He's got solid stuff, but he walks too many guys and wastes too many pitches. He's not fixing it. He won't fix it. This is who he is and it's not good enough.

That said, if Q doesn't establish himself the next few weeks then it's gonna L, but I really hope that's not the case.

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 9, 2020, 9:38 am

Doesn't matter what Quantrill does in ST...the decision has been made already according to Fenn and MP19

The winner of the Poll is L regardless of what anybody thinks to the contrary....Luchessi sucks but he's PROVEN.

Quantrills best hope is that the Padres just flat out trade him to a team that actually wants him.....I mean who wouldn't want a guy that throws 94-95 and is a horse with a pedigree as opposed to a 88-90 in the dirt, out of the zone, kind of guy.

Maybe package Q+Mejia+Naylor+Cordero+3 lower prospects + any other tomato can to Tampa Bay for Renfroe and Margot....solves all our problems at once...you get rid of a pitcher that has no chance because he isn't PROVEN, a guy that isn't a catcher and never will be, two OF types that both have serious deficiencies, some guys that are never going to make it anyway and a tomato can.

Happy Monday....Go Pads 🙂

Quote from MrPadre19 on March 9, 2020, 9:52 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on March 9, 2020, 7:43 am

Well there you have it....I sure hope players don't read that the fix is in and that spring training is a hoax for competition......at least for the pitching staff

The winner is L

Thanks....you both just saved me about 3k by not going to Arizona again this year for Spring Training or any future years for that matter...it's clearly a waste of time as the roster has been settled already.....I can save the trip and just watch it local at Petco when it actually counts.

 

You're allowed to disagree.

If you think eithers performance during spring games against varying levels of opponents abilities is going to be the deciding factor that's fine.

I just don't think their Spring ERA's are going to be how Preller and Tingler decide whos the better pitcher right now.

They are pitching 2-3 innings at a time and sometimes against major league  players and sometimes against guys who will never be on a 25 man roster.They could be working on a certain pitch or location etc.....we don't know.

"My" point is the decision will be made based on their seasons last year against comparable hitters and on how they look in practice and in private.

Not based on who gets Cheslor Cuthbert out.