Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 26, 2026, 4:56 am

Tatis's lack of power has gotten all of the coverage, but Machado and Merrill are the bigger concerns. Manny likes to talk about the back of the baseball card. I'm starting to worry there are going to be a lot of ugly numbers on his card by the time that contract is up. While still good his numbers have been down from his prime years the past few seasons. Now it seems like he might have fallen off of the cliff. He's hit under .200 over his last 400+ PAs going back to the end of last season. It's getting harder and harder to look at it as a slow start.

I'm not as worried about Merrill since he's younger. I do think he needs to make some adjustments to his approach though. With how aggressive he is I think pitchers have figured out they really don't need to throw him strikes to get him out. It reminds me of Khalil Greene a little bit. It seems like he's always flailing at breaking balls way out of the zone. I think the most telling stat is that this seasons he's hitting .304/.473/.411 while ahead in the count and .073/.073/.164 while behind in the count. He just doesn't get himself into favorable accounts very often.

Quote from fenn68 on May 26, 2026, 6:40 am

Have to really hope the core, long term players rebound ... at least over the next few years since most expect the likes of Machado and Bogaerts to tail off in their late 30s already. Consider after 2026:

Machado ... 7 years ... $39MM/yr ... thru age 41

Bogaerts ... 7 years ... $25MM/yr ... thru age 41

Tatis ... 8 years ... rises to $37MM/yr in 2028 ... thru age 35

Merrill ... 8 years ... rises to $21MM/yr in 3030 ... thru age 31

That could lead to a very "challenging" period 2030-2033 when all four are at max salary ... no trade contracts (not that anyone would want those contracts) ... and the potential that the new CBA(s) contain some form of a salary cap or more severe penalties for exceeding the CBT threshold.

Add that if there is a long 2027 lockout ... that eliminates a near term season where these four COULD be near their peaks and make that push for a WS. Aging will continue and declines will happen.

For the record I don't like signing players to contact that extend into their late 30s (no matter how good they are now). To that end, really thought the Machado extension in 2023 for 11 more years ($350MM) and a year before he would have been a FA was the worst deal of the bunch. (I know Preller is easy to blame ... and he is part of the deal ... but for a deal like that the driving force had to be Peter Siedler). Next worst would be Bogaerts ... just no need.

Not thrilled with the deals for Merrill or Tatis (as they are turning out) but the idea of buying out arbitration years and some FA of "young" budging stars is more a norm across the league. Always a gamble and for any of the national player evaluators ... the decline of either was not being forecasted ... so, bad outcome but not necessarily a bad decision by Preller / Siedler.  Both still young a time to recover. Very different than Machado / Bogaerts.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 26, 2026, 1:00 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on May 26, 2026, 4:56 am

Tatis's lack of power has gotten all of the coverage, but Machado and Merrill are the bigger concerns. Manny likes to talk about the back of the baseball card. I'm starting to worry there are going to be a lot of ugly numbers on his card by the time that contract is up. While still good his numbers have been down from his prime years the past few seasons. Now it seems like he might have fallen off of the cliff. He's hit under .200 over his last 400+ PAs going back to the end of last season. It's getting harder and harder to look at it as a slow start.

I'm not as worried about Merrill since he's younger. I do think he needs to make some adjustments to his approach though. With how aggressive he is I think pitchers have figured out they really don't need to throw him strikes to get him out. It reminds me of Khalil Greene a little bit. It seems like he's always flailing at breaking balls way out of the zone. I think the most telling stat is that this seasons he's hitting .304/.473/.411 while ahead in the count and .073/.073/.164 while behind in the count. He just doesn't get himself into favorable accounts very often.

Even with all his struggles Manny is "on pace" for 25 HR,75 RBI and 80 runs scored.

That's with him not improving at all.

His issue has been hits and Avg.

I have a feeling he will still end up close to his Baseball Card numbers other than maybe his batting average

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 26, 2026, 1:03 pm

You have to think there was more to the Machado extension than just what he does on the field.

Obviously AJ and Peter knew he would not be hitting 30 HR's and playing 160 games a year in his 40's

But,then again,Manny is the "type" of player that could age well.

It's not like he's gonna lose his foot speed and base stealing prowess.

Team Captain...great in the Community...will be in the Hall of Fame in a Padres hat I believe had to be a factor.

Obviously I am not saying these things are "more" important than hitting a baseball by any means

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on May 26, 2026, 2:26 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on May 26, 2026, 1:03 pm

You have to think there was more to the Machado extension than just what he does on the field.

Obviously AJ and Peter knew he would not be hitting 30 HR's and playing 160 games a year in his 40's

But,then again,Manny is the "type" of player that could age well.

It's not like he's gonna lose his foot speed and base stealing prowess.

Team Captain...great in the Community...will be in the Hall of Fame in a Padres hat I believe had to be a factor.

Obviously I am not saying these things are "more" important than hitting a baseball by any means

 

 

The next 7 years will complete Manny's picture. However, at this point, all those other factors are not outweighing no World Series or who the Padres could have added before and in the future for his salary. Do think this was a Siedler call ... not Preller.

11 years / $350MM for a 30 year old has at its core a presumption of winning a WS in the first 5-6 years of the deal (the rest is just a roll of the dice). Across the league, that logic usually fails and actually hurts in the long run (sometime even if you win one).

We will see ... can't really predict the future. Still at the core would never sign a player into his late 30s / early 40s on a big money, long term deal on the gamble that will pay off in the first half of the contract. Side: much more conservative when it comes to aging pitchers particularly on length.

I see a bit of a trend to negotiate shorter deals but bigger AAV from a team perspective eliminating the downside of a long term commitment.

 

Quote from ultratvfan on May 26, 2026, 2:28 pm

Game 2 Lineup

1. Tatis 2B

2. Bogaerts 3B

3. Sheets LF

4. Machado 3B

5. Andujar DH

6. Merrill CF

7. France 1B

8. Laureano LF

9. Fermin C

Vasquez P

Stammen needs to flip Machado and France around. France is currently the best hitter on the team and should bat 4th. Not Manny "Rally Killer" Machado

Quote from fenn68 on May 26, 2026, 3:35 pm

I guess the piling on but somewhat lost in the struggles of the big names, is the May struggles of Laureano.

March/April: 252/317/439 ... wRC+ 115 ... K% at 29

May: 131/243/246 ... wRC+ 48 ... K% at 37

I have been around a long time watching baseball ... expect hitting slumps even from the best ... but a team with as many "stars" in slumps at the same time coupled with the length (1/3 year for most) and depth (these are some really bad stats) ... is just mystifying. Yet, team still in the playoffs.

Hitters get hot in June ... Padres rattle off a couple of winning streaks ... overtake LAD ... OR ... the feared June swoon where the hitting slump continues and the "clutch" come from behinds end and pitching gets burned out and starts to crack resulting in a couple of long losing streaks (see Cubs) and the drop out of the playoff run.

I guess they have to play the games in June to find out!

Quote from ultratvfan on May 27, 2026, 10:56 am

The Padres dropped to 3.5 games back I blame that on the Padres, not the Dodgers winning.

Quote from ultratvfan on May 27, 2026, 3:44 pm

The Padres suffer their first sweep of the season and currently share 2nd place with the Dbacks, who won today. Whether they remain 3.5 games back or fall 3.5 games back depend on the results of the Dodgers/Rockies game tonight.

Why in the world did Stammen need to take out Buehler, who only had a 58 pitch count. He was outstanding today giving up no walks. Instead he brought in a lefty to face face lefty Schwarber, who hits lefties far better than righties.

One again the Padres offense could not get it done. They have the worst offense in MLB and are dead last in batting average.

On to DC to face the Nats.

Keep The Faith!

GO PADRES!