Forum
Forum Navigation
Pham vs Profar
#21 · September 15, 2020, 11:54 am
Good analysis of a projected Pads deal offer for Profar, FENN.
I initially didn't like the concept of 2-3 yr deal offer to him, but he's so young & our top of our system so cleaned out, it does make a lot of sense.... as long as we don't "expect" him to hit .400+ like last 7 games. A weird variable I'm SURE player's agents are going to factor in is: the possibility of either or even BOTH 2021 (Covid/no fans) and 2022 (CBA negotiations lead to lockout or strike) seasons not being played in full & eating into player's earnings on paper.
For example, if Pads offered a straight 2 yr deal to Profar with a big increase in 2022.... it's not as enticing as it would normally be, b/c there's a real possibility a significant amount of that $ never gets earned! Agents' solution will likely be to ask for more signing bonuses than normal; but this could be even more problematic to owners. Likely creative solutions emerge using deferred signing bonuses (like Pomeranz'), and maybe larger than normal buyouts in 2022 against club options to help guarantee player actually gets a certain amount of their contract.
#22 · September 16, 2020, 3:09 pm
What are Profar's number after his first 25 or so at bats? He got off to a rough start( no hits but getting on base, scoring runs)
The fact he's around .250 with everything else makes me think he's been solidly productive since the beginning drought.
#23 · September 16, 2020, 3:34 pm
Quote from WindsorUK on September 16, 2020, 3:09 pmWhat are Profar's number after his first 25 or so at bats? He got off to a rough start( no hits but getting on base, scoring runs)
The fact he's around .250 with everything else makes me think he's been solidly productive since the beginning drought.
You're right. Don't know how to back it out like that, but his last 30 days are around .300 BA / .335 OBP
#24 · September 16, 2020, 4:53 pm
He is sure making the case to be re-signed .... maybe at the expense of picking up Moreland’s option.
Would allow Pham to DH/LF while still playing Profar every day in LF/DH.
#25 · September 16, 2020, 6:21 pm
Hate to bring it up, but unfortunate fact of life that LAD have Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, & Kiki Hernandez all FA's this offseason.
Hard to imagine them NOT being interested in Profar; he's exactly the mold their entire bench seems to be.
Don't do it "Pro"! Resist the evil empire!
#26 · September 18, 2020, 9:55 am
Profar's #'s & next contract continue to increase...
BUT is this really "who he is" now, or a statistical outlier? Hard to tell. His prodigious prospect talent/#1 overall prospect rating suggest he is capable of sustaining what he's doing, and largely also did in 2018. On that side of the argument could say his development as a player just got slowed by the major injuries earlier in career.
But I don't know... His Last 30 games (96 AB) amount to a little bit over 5% of his entire MLB career. INCLUDING that great production in his totals, his last 30 games are:
- 36%+ Higher BA, 14% Higher OBP, and 23%+ OPS than his Career #'s. That's not "points" higher, it's %!
Not what a GM/team wants to base a multi-year contract on, but exactly what the player is trying to force them to do....
#27 · September 18, 2020, 10:26 am
Risk is just hard to balance .... but do think they make every effort to get a deal done with Profar without that subjective “overpay”.
Doubt even the Padres see Profar sustaining his last month’s performance (probably no other team does either). Doubt any team sees him as an impact LF/2B ... more that super utility guy going forward ... a very good one.
That should keep the level of contract down. From the Padres’ standpoint ... even with Pham back ... still a major need for a normal Profar who can play multiple positions better than Mateo or Garcia or ???. Then add the lack of internal coming attractions for 2022 while Pham / Moreland / Garcia become old FA. That is a lot to replace in one year along with the spot Profar is not filling.
Padres were OK signing Pomeranz to a multi-year deal (and for good money) after a very limited amount of success as a RP in 2019 ... there was a perceived need. Could see the same approach to Profar. Clearly for now ... there is an open roster spot and apparently the money.
#28 · September 18, 2020, 11:36 am
I just looked at Jorge Mateo as a "poor man's" version of (soon to be much richer man) Profar. It is interesting. Both were uber prospects. They're both 6'0" & 185 +/- 2 lbs. Builds look different: I'd definitely describe Profar as "Wiry" or "Whippy", Mateo looks more "Solid". Profar is 27.5 y.o. Mateo is 25. Profar definitely had a much better Minors Career:
PROFAR MATEO
- 1,800+ AB Total .279 / .367 / .441 2,800+ AB Total .267 / .325 / .422
- 640 AB AAA .284 / .373 / .430 1,000+ AB AAA .261 / .306 / .433*
Mateo had a great 2017 @ AA split between Eastern & Texas leagues equally due to trade. Then a BAD 2018 in AAA/PCL: .230/.280/.353. Rebounded in 2019 @ AAA/PCL repeat: .289 / .330 / .504 but with (Baseball America) "a massive 2nd 1/2 dropoff". Also worth mentioning that Mateo's AAA #'s are "juiced" by the live ball, whereas Profar didn't have that advantage. BA praises Mateo's tools & "quick, direct swing", but really harps on how inconsistent he is both sides of ball. Tool grades: Profar - MLB: Me -subjective (entering 2020), Mateo - BA 2020 Prospect Handbook, also throwing in: Gettys - Me.
Player HIT POWER RUN FIELD ARM
PROFAR 45/50 55 55/60 55 55
MATEO 45 40 80 50 60
GETTYS 40 60 60 65 70
Profar's "Hit"/OBP tool on the rise after this year, making him look like a real "5-tool if none exceptional" versatile SH super utility guy that is very hard to find in MLB. Good attitude & makeup too. If there was ever a player on face of earth who should forget "launch angle" & try to hit everything into the ground, it's Mateo. Trying to hit for the power he doesn't have undermines his 80 tool game disrupting speed. There's little reason to believe he'll ever turn into what Profar has in MLB; he simply doesn't have Profar's eye & patience at plate.
BUT on an Offensively set Padres team 9 lineup spots deep even w/o Profar in 2021 (Pham - LF, Nola/healthy Mejia - C, Moreland/ "3rd C?" - DH)... he may be a really good fit as that guy who doesn't start very often, but does so at 3 INF & all 3 OF positions. 5 starts x 6 positions = 30 over course of year in the #9 hole as an offensively challenged 2nd leadoff man who's there the rest of the season for injury coverage, rest/sub in blowouts & pinch running. With starting position players as set as Pads, he might be the perfect complement.
In offseason, I & others threw out that maybe Gettys was a reasonable platoon RH CF after Margot was traded, and before we knew how good Grisham would be. Seemed more likely with compressed season increasing importance of a pinch runner, then Mateo added in Summer camp. Getttys' Minors career #'s are extremely similar to Mateo's in 2,600+ AB incl 500+ AAA. But in 2019, both in PCL, Mateo's BA & OBP were 25-35 points better than Gettys who was on an all-time offensive juggernaut in 2019.
Bottom line: Gettys may return as Minors FA, but on a team constructed the way the Pads now are, in 2021 Mateo's: top of scale speed, ability to also play INF, and slightly better hit/OBP skills are a better fit than Gettys' superior: Power, Arm, & OF defense. If Pads manage to bring Profar back, Mateo might still be last guy on bench, but is more likely to get traded. No matter what: other competition will be brought in to ST, but Mateo will probably get the most playing time/AB's of all position players.
#29 · September 18, 2020, 1:35 pm
Will be a tough call on whether we want to pay what it will take to keep Profar as a super utility.
Will possibly depend on the DH.
With the DH (or with an injury like this year) he becomes an every day player.
When/how will MLB decide on the DH?
If the new CBA isn't until after next season...how would they decide on it this off season?
"If" everything is back to normal Covid wise....what would cause them to consider the Universal DH and how/who would they decide?
#30 · October 2, 2020, 8:14 am
A part of me is hoping we see more of Profar in LF and Pham at DH ... yikes!