Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 9:07 am

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 7:00 am

Small sample size inconsistent with past results but Profar over the past 30 days (and consistent with this deployment in LF vs 2B):

89 AB ,,, 292/330/494 (824 OPS) with good defense.

Just a hot streak? A product of being in a line-up with Tatis, Machado, et al that gets to other teams' pens sooner (less quality) and teams having to give him better pitches?

Wouldn't bet on that line going forward but maybe better than he was given credit for (he was an elite prospect so that should be considered).

A rising tide lifts all ship!

And now even higher after yesterday.  It is impressive, and has been very consistent over last 7, 15, & 30 games.

If he sustains anything close to this through end of season, that's 45 games of a 60 game season = 75%.

Pretty good argument for he & his agent to say a 28 (next yr) y.o. former #1 in MLB prospect with great athleticism & ability to start at multiple positions deserves a multi-year deal being paid as a starter.... even in what figures to be a WEAK FA $ market.

Catch -22 for Pads.  Obviously want him to do well now, but increases his future $ & likelihood of leaving.

Even if Preller et al do "prefer Profar " 🙂 over Pham, they'd have to make the non-tender decision on Pham first (or gamble that they could trade him @ 1 yr  / 10 MM off down season), and there would be no guarantee Profar would come back unless he/agent forego really exploring FA.

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 11:34 am

Of course they can bring back Pham and Profar as LF/DH duo and drop Moreland which would cover a major portion of Profar’s potential deal.

With Hosmer back nearly full time at 1B .... Moreland is quite limited to DH vs RHP while probably the roster has more use for a versatile Profar. Remember that Tingler like to rest starters in the DH role so even that role is limited.

I really don’t think there is much question that Pham is back .... more of a question how much he will DH vs LF.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 12:50 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 11:34 am

Of course they can bring back Pham and Profar as LF/DH duo and drop Moreland which would cover a major portion of Profar’s potential deal.

With Hosmer back nearly full time at 1B .... Moreland is quite limited to DH vs RHP while probably the roster has more use for a versatile Profar. Remember that Tingler like to rest starters in the DH role so even that role is limited.

I really don’t think there is much question that Pham is back .... more of a question how much he will DH vs LF.

You keep saying this, but that's more a function of not having an equal/better matchup alternative as a "pure DH".   Before the Hosmer injury, think this was the concept with Moreland.  Not going to put Moreland on bench every game vs RHP one of the RH position players gets a day off their feet.  But vs LHP, then yes, Moreland on bench to get the better DH matchup.

Overriding point is basically if you  have "David Ortiz" as your DH, he's going to DH every day.  If you have "Greg Garcia", you're looking for a little more there.

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 1:14 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 12:50 pm

Quote from fenn68 on September 9, 2020, 11:34 am

Of course they can bring back Pham and Profar as LF/DH duo and drop Moreland which would cover a major portion of Profar’s potential deal.

With Hosmer back nearly full time at 1B .... Moreland is quite limited to DH vs RHP while probably the roster has more use for a versatile Profar. Remember that Tingler like to rest starters in the DH role so even that role is limited.

I really don’t think there is much question that Pham is back .... more of a question how much he will DH vs LF.

You keep saying this, but that's more a function of not having an equal/better matchup alternative as a "pure DH".   Before the Hosmer injury, think this was the concept with Moreland.  Not going to put Moreland on bench every game vs RHP one of the RH position players gets a day off their feet.  But vs LHP, then yes, Moreland on bench to get the better DH matchup.

Overriding point is basically if you  have "David Ortiz" as your DH, he's going to DH every day.  If you have "Greg Garcia", you're looking for a little more there.

I would suggest Moreland is < Ortiz. Over his career he is basically an average hitter and now as a DH just put a crimp on the roster.

Padres would be better off with an average LHH for DH but who might be able to play other field positions to allow starters to rest (or cover injury). Padres have a lot of RHH to cover the DH role.

In what might be a bargain FA season ... maybe finding a more versatile LHH to DH and fill in other spots should be a option.

Maybe IF Preller can find the next Ortiz or Cruz (or Franmil Reyes) they go with a full time DH .. they don’t have that guy.

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 9, 2020, 2:28 pm

LOL.  Of course!  Not suggesting Moreland is anywhere close.  Just saying if you have a "pure" DH like Ortiz he will obviously play more b/c his bat warrants it.  Not many guys in MLB are going to DH ahead of "Tatis" or "Machado" on their off days.

But we've REALLY flipped the dialogue with just a tiny sample on Moreland.  He was NUCLEAR hot vs time of trade vs RHP; exactly what the Dr. ordered as what looked on paper like a massive experience & results upgrade over Josh Naylor.  Unlikely to sustain that pace WAY above his career norm, 1st time in NL, etc.  But I'm glad we have him.

I have a hard time believing Preller traded 2 better assets than what we sent to Oakland for Profar for a full season, then are just going to buy him out after a < 30 day rental?  Just really don't think that was the intent behind the trade (based on the asset value) heading into a full season next year, etc.   Now, you're absolutely right that it should be a depressed market for 2nd/3rd tier guys.  Will there be a "better" LH hitter than Moreland available for a full season @ </= 2.5 MM?    In a normal offseason (given the #'s MM put up for Boston pre-trade) I'd say "no way", but this offseason... maybe.  Just don't think Preller would have made this specific trade if 20 AB later he was planning to walk away from it.

Now if Moreland falls off a cliff #-wise rest of season... then yeah, just not justified to spend the 2.5 MM in 2021.

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 14, 2020, 12:08 pm

I was pretty critical of Profar earlier in the season but he's come through with some very timely hits and definitely fills a critical role with this team.

Looking at it if he's your "worst" starting player you've got to feel pretty damn good about your roster.

He certainly makes a good #8 hitter and at the right price I'd take him back as our 4th outfielder/utility for next season

Quote from Brian Connelly on September 15, 2020, 10:20 am

I have been on the "I don't buy it" side with Profar.  But...

• Last 30 games:   .299 / .340 / .454
• Last 15 games:    .380 / .396 / .540
• Last 7 games:      .429 / .478 / .524

He's been extremely good since essentially taking over LF every day when Pham went down.  And getting better.  Nuclear hot, which can't sustain "forever", but the season doesn't last "forever".  CAN'T take this production out of the lineup even when Pham returns; meaning Profar likely steals time @ 1B/DH from Moreland.  Pham will DH some too.  "Issue" will really be what player goes out of lineup when Hosmer ALSO returns.  Right now, have to say Profar in lineup over Moreland.

His sustained good performance may make the Profar / Pham argument a moot point; Profar may get WAY better contract that what I was envisioning.   Full time 27/28 yr old regular vs. Super utility.  It's not my $, but the Pads can't pay both Profar & Pham big "starter" $.

I personally like Profar, and from day 1 of season felt he was one of the most entertaining Pads to watch.  SO expressive for good or bad it's almost funny.  Always in a conversation with himself, almost always the huge grin.  Undeniably has helped (especially his patience at plate) & is an integral part of this team.  Sure SEEMS to be a great teammate.

But there's STILL something that bugs me... I TRIED to find a spray chart for him, but couldn't.  But I did dig up some supporting evidence:  A stat based site rated him POOR relative to MLB in:  Hard hit (7th percentile), Barrels (16%) & Exit Velo (28%).  He is Great in MLB in:  K's (90%) & Whiffs (82%).  I feel like he always, only, tries to "slash" the ball right down either line; anecdotal, but seems like all his HR's I remember are down the foul line.  So this year at least he winds up with either a single or a HR b/c he rarely uses the middle of the field; so he never hits the gap line drive double (only three 2B in 160 PA!).  Really need to provide >/= 1 XBH / 10 AB as a starting LF in MLB.  Had 61 / 524 AB Texas 2018, 46 / 459 AB Oakland last year, but only 9 / 146 for us so far in 2020.  In fairness, Tommy Pham is "light" on this stat too:  45 / 494 between St Louis & Rays 2018, 56 / 567 Rays last year.... BUT he's also averaged 20 SB / yr and .368 OBP those years.

If he's recognizing his limitations and trying to work around them to succeed (definitely has last 30 days), that's smart baseball... but they are still limitations....   Is he trying to "work around" PETCO, do something different?  Anyone else's thoughts?

Quote from fenn68 on September 15, 2020, 10:47 am

In the short run Hosmer returns and takes back 1B (Almonte optioned) ... Pham returns and splits time in LF/DH (Ona or a RP optioned). See Moreland being set as the LHH DH option with Profar in vs LHP (either LF or DH).

That adds some flexibility to move Profar around to various spots in some minor injuries happen.

Good for 2020.

====== 2021:

If we assume they have some additional money to spend beyond the natural payroll from the expected roster returnees ... and not really seeing some obvious FA/trade targets to fill a support role .... Profar would be THE FA target. Yes, should get a better deal but hard not to want his versatility for LF/DH/all INF slots (and his offense) in the super utility guy. Very hard to get all that in one player ... and in a 162 game schedule would be effectively a semi-regular. Padres seem to really like him ... Profar seems to really like being on the team. I would add that with really nothing to count on in the minors for the next few years (either the OF or INF) and Pham (33 next season) having a good chance not to resign for 2022 ... locking down Profar on a multi-year deal seems reasonable (he is only 27). At least in 2022 might just need to look for a LF not a LF plus a whole bench.

To get him ... and out maneuver any other team that may be in the mix ... going for a 2 year deal (with club option) or a 3 year deal may keep others out that may (especially in the uncertain cash flow of 2021) be only offering one year deals (if anything) in what should be his target price (remember there should also be a bevy of FA options willing to go one year / lower cost. Multi-year but lower AAV could work both financially for the Padres and cover some roster holes in 2021-23.

 

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on September 15, 2020, 10:53 am

Profar playing for that next contract is playing himself right out of the Padres future plans it seems.

Unless we trade Pham we won't be able to pay Profar enough to be super utility/4th outfielder on this squad.

Unless the idea is for him to take over full time LF after next season when Pham leaves...then "maybe" they can keep him and

just suck up the cost in 21' and use him all around the field.

This will be again where the DH(in or out) plays a roll.

If the DH is in for 2021 much easier to keep Profar and find AB's for both he and Pham.

Remember,this is an AJ favorite....pretty sure he will at least do everything he can to keep him around.