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Offseason Thread
#971 · February 21, 2019, 8:15 pm
If Fowler and Co. could raise payroll to $150M per season, it is feasible to think that they could afford Myers, Hosmer, Machado, and Harper. Here are the payroll commitments above that of the League minimum including the dead money and the IL money for Richards this year. I cant figure the league min past this year because it changes each year and not a specific percent. Additionally, there is no telling what the league minimum will be after 2021 and the new CBA. So here's the most accurate numbers that I have been able to calculate.....
2019 Payroll - 17 players that will make more than league min. equals $124.7M. That leaves $25.3M for the additional 23 players that fill out the 25 and 40 man rosters, or additional signings.
2020 Payroll - 9 players that have guaranteed contracts that equals $131.3M. That leaves $18.7M for arbitration cases and league minimum players on the 25 and 40 man rosters. This will be the tightest year of the 2 ten year contracts to Harper and Machado.
2021 Payroll - Only 4 players will be on guaranteed contracts, but will total $106M. That would leave $44M for arbitration cases and the balance of the 25 and 40 man rosters.
If Myers has a bounce back year and they can trade him for most of his future dollars, then we are looking even better.
#972 · February 21, 2019, 8:16 pm
Heyman says ownership is meeting tomorrow to discuss the possibility of signing Harper. Maybe it's not that crazy.
#973 · February 21, 2019, 8:22 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 21, 2019, 8:16 pmHeyman says ownership is meeting tomorrow to discuss the possibility of signing Harper. Maybe it's not that crazy.
I think part of the offer is that every Thursday day home game, the team will be called the SD Harpers, with a Harp Seal on the jersey and Bryce gets to pick the color of the day! 😛
#974 · February 21, 2019, 11:50 pm
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 21, 2019, 8:16 pmHeyman says ownership is meeting tomorrow to discuss the possibility of signing Harper. Maybe it's not that crazy.
Heyman is a Borat cultist. Ignore everything he says. The Padres are not even close to trying for Harper now, Heyman is all a mlb psyop.
#975 · February 22, 2019, 6:01 am
"IF" they could go to $150MM ... would signing Harper be the best use of the next $35MM if they want to be a playoff team in 2020-2022? More value to winning by signing a top of the rotation FA next winter? More strategic to see the remaining "holes" after 2019 reveals what they really have in the prospects at the ML level and then aim to add to fill the biggest needs.
#976 · February 22, 2019, 6:32 am
OK, on the flip side, "IF" Boras is creative with deferred money / cash flow (and he clearly has been with other big contracts) the impact in the first 4 years may not be so daunting.
One assumption is a $330MM/11 year deal (breaks the total dollar record) might get it done since no one else seems to be nearly at the level. Maybe keep the initial money around $20MM then in 2023 let it pop up once Myers / Hosmer depart. Also, maybe just run deferred payments for a portion of the total well beyond year 11 keeping the the annual payments lower. Might be able to justify a $360MM deal with the deferred money effectively lowering the economic value. I know they rejected WASH deal because of deferred money but that was at the beginning of FA ... the market did not develop so Boras may look at this differently.
Since they have been trying to deal Myers all winter ... not holding out much of dealing him (and his contract) to open payroll space. If the can be "creative" on a Harper deal ... would be OK with a Myers - Margot - Harper OF and move Renfroe, Reyes, Cordero, and Naylor over the course of the next couple of years.
A lot of "IF" conditions and it really boils down to Boras' "creativity" ... so not totally out of the question.
#977 · February 22, 2019, 6:34 am
As evidenced by 2015 and the Machado signing AJ seems to like making a splash and while of course winning is all that really matters he strikes me as the type who would love the coup of signing both.
I think he liked the Rock Star moniker.
The excitement generated for the fan base and for the players....along with ticket sales and merch.
None of that will matter if they don't think the move would help us win a championship but if they do....all those things "also" come into play.
The Padres,like in 2015,would be the talk of not only baseball....but of the sports world.
People would be tuning in to watch just because of these two.
I would think the only way signing both would not be a good move,considering the young inexpensive talent coming,would be if injury derails one or both.
#978 · February 22, 2019, 6:35 am
I'm also wondering if Harper does end up signing with Philly how the fans will react to him knowing he didn't sign right away and tried
to go elsewhere.
May not be a good look for him.
But I'm sure it would be forgotten at some early point...especially if they are winning.
#979 · February 22, 2019, 7:12 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 22, 2019, 6:01 am"IF" they could go to $150MM ... would signing Harper be the best use of the next $35MM if they want to be a playoff team in 2020-2022? More value to winning by signing a top of the rotation FA next winter? More strategic to see the remaining "holes" after 2019 reveals what they really have in the prospects at the ML level and then aim to add to fill the biggest needs.
Dont disagree with that thought at all, was just trying to justify how the monies could work if they opened the check book.
For the next two seasons, would have to outscore the opponent until the young pitching staff could get there feet under them. Although an OF defense of Myers, Margot/Jank, Harper and INF of Machado, Tatis, Urias, Hosmer you would have to think the pitchers would feel pretty good about a lot of baseballs finding leather.
#980 · February 22, 2019, 7:13 am
You have to drool a little bit about a 3-4-5-6 batting order of Harper, Machado, Hosmer, and Myers. And would make quite a few pitchers nervous about facing SD.