Quote from Brian Connelly on February 21, 2019, 10:27 am

Quote from sportwarrior on February 20, 2019, 6:44 pm

There really aren't enough bullets in all our young arms to safely and effectively mix and match a rotation all year long. Simply put, we need innings and Gio is the most cost effective way to get them. They may not be pretty, but he likely will provide league average performance. We need that kind of stabilizing presence while we wait for elite reinforcements and for our young arms take shape.

Thank you Sport!   I'm afraid we stand alone, with even Preller saying... "When we talk about acquisitions, it's got to be a guy that we feel is better than what we have in the current role for our group. If we have that, we'll be aggressive. ... But there are a lot of guys in our camp that we believe in." --  "Rotation additions unlikely".

Comes down to how ready you think Quantrill, Allen, & Paddack are for opening day.  In my mind, none of them are.  Quantrill has 6 starts in AAA & needs to demonstrate & sustain some success at that level.  Allen might be the most polished/ready, but only has 5 starts in AAA & is 21.  Service time IS a consideration for he & Paddack who has only 7 starts at AA.  Paddack is already being hyped big time, but is working on developing a usable 3rd pitch & is just making up time experience wise; why not do that in AAA?   With all these guys I'd so much rather see them come up for good when they're ready, not get shellacked like Nix & Kennedy who both have work to do in AAA (and are coming off surgery).

IF you assume none of these guys are there O.D. that leaves:  Lucchesi, Lauer, Strahm, Mitchell, Perdomo, & Erlin...    What it 2 have horrible camps & 1 gets hurt?  Our DEPTH & Talent level is good & rapidly improving.  But our Experience, "proven"-ness & max workload is just really vulnerable.

I've never been a huge fan of the concept, but the 2019 AND 2020 Pads might be IDEALLY constructed to go to 6-man rotation.  For this to work you have to have a deep stable of 40-man rostered guys with options without a clear (yet) dropoff from say #5 to #8.  Also need mostly optionable guys in bullpen b/c 6th SP requires making more roster moves than typical.

Entering offseason, I was hoping to get a stud/horse like Thor or Kluber; # 1 SP, start THAT guy every 5th day for 32-33 starts/200 innings, but run a 6-man rotation otherwise so 5 young guys would be starting, but every 6th day = 27 starts X  5-6 innings per = 150 IP... about Paddack's & some others max this year.  A guy like Gio Gonzalez might not be good enough to justify starting every 5th day, BUT he is used to it & could do so when needed.

In 2020 Garrett Richards is NOT going to throw 200 innings... nor will Lamet.  Go to true 6-man?

Bottom line:  #1 SP still a glaring hole.  No problem AT ALL with splurging instead on 3B, but SP still feels like where the roster is incomplete.   Given big trade unlikely at this point in ST, IMO a band aid 1 yr SP signing completes the Padres roster.

Quote from fenn68 on February 21, 2019, 11:49 am

How the Padres handle the 2019 SP should at least be interesting ... and I am expecting us to see a lot of pitchers getting starts over the course of the season with the Padres making extensive use of minor league options and the injury list to control innings. Among the SP candidates, I think only Michell is without options (and fair chance he does not make it very long into the season). We could see the same option activity with the RP (except Yates and Stammen) since they likely will be used a lot if the SP innings get limited in their starts.

Barring any ST injury (or real bad showing) they should be going with Strahm - Lucchesi - Lauer out of the gates. The prospect that my slip in (as did Lucchesi last season) could be Allen ... in 2018 pitched the innings and was effective. That would leave one slot for one other to grab ... at least to start the season.

I can see not going for a veteran filler if they are not viewed as better than what they expect from the in house options. If anything, getting ML work for Allen, Paddack, Nix, Quantrill maybe be a better development / evaluation tool that just keeping them in AAA as key prospects. Also does not hurt to see what may be a last evaluation of Mitchell, Perdomo, Erlin, Kennedy. That is 8 for the last 2 who all are (or will be) deserving of ML in 2019 ... to at least to prove they are not.

As for a top of the rotation arm to truly challenge the playoffs in 2020-2022 ... look to next winter as the Padres showcase move. FA does present Cole (who will be 29), Bumgarner (who will be 30), Sale (31), plus if he opts out from his remaining $100MM/4 yrs ... Strasburg (at 31). Also, if Cleveland tanks (good chance) Kluber with 2 years more control might be easier to deal for and if the METS struggle (and they spend big to extend DeGrom) Snydergaard may be in play. Padres have some potential top of the rotation arms (e.g. Gore) but that wave is not going to be up and fully productive for that 2020-22 window. None of those options are going to be "cheap" ... so holding open some payroll space for adding a major SP FA is a sound move ... don't waste a mediocre SP or a major gamble on a rebound SP.

Quote from David Jay on February 21, 2019, 12:21 pm

Think you're more likely to see some piggyback pairs than you are a six-man rotation. Getting 4/5 innings each from Lauer/Lamet (or Strahm/Paddack or Erlin/Perdomo) on a five-day schedule would make a lot of sense. If it was me, I wouldn't even announce a starter per se, just know that those two guys are going to both throw and then you create match-up issues, allow them to max out their stuff, and only go through the line-up twice max...

Quote from TatisJr on February 21, 2019, 1:28 pm

I’m not sure if someone posted about Acees last interview. He had some fascinating nuggets in there. He says Joey will be the opening day starter. He believes Joey, Lauer are the shoe ins and Paddack will be in the rotation with a good spring. The other spots are up for grabs. He said unless Keuchels price comes down drastically it won’t happen and he thinks Preller is happy with the young guys he has in camp. Joey, Lauer, Paddack in the first 3 spots. Logan Allen, Quantrill, Mitchell, Nix, Erlin, Strahm competing for the final 2 or 3 spots. He said the rotation and the creativity we may see with the young arms will be a fascinating stroryline this season. Sounds like a 6 man or some sort of opener could be used throughout the year.

Acee makes it clear the Padres acquisition of Manny was due to AJ’s hardwork, creativity and his inability to take no as an answer from Fowler and Seidler. AJ simply wouldn’t take No as answer from ownership and fought hard for this. According to Acee ownership didn’t even meet with Manny before the agreement. They trust their GM. Kudos to owners for trusting the “baseball guys” and pulling out the big bucks. He said when AJ heard the Nightengale report about Machados low offers, Preller became obsessed. Ultimately Manny got his money and Preller got his guy.

Quote from TatisJr on February 21, 2019, 1:32 pm

One more thing. Acee said he watched Paddack, Gore, Morejon and Weathers throw the other day and said they make it look easy. I believe he used the word “special” when taking about the young guns.

Quote from fenn68 on February 21, 2019, 1:52 pm

With the 2019 - 2022+ INF morphing into Hosmer - Urias - Tatis - Machado ... every indication that will be collectively elite defensively. Potentially does that translate into an advantage to a ground ball pitcher over a similar quality fly ball pitcher? Elite defensive INF plus ground ball pitcher should play well in any ballpark helping home / away performance.

Not sure which of the SP candidates could take the best advantage of this.

Maybe a secondary multiplier effect ... with Machado - Tatis - Urias being plus with range ... does that afford Green the opportunity to modify the defense shifts allowing larger gaps between the INF and ultimately cover more of the INF. Just a thought.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 21, 2019, 2:42 pm

Any truth to the latest rumor that Bryce Harper has told the Padres he will sign with them if they match the current offer he has?

I assume from the Phils?

 

Obviously this could be a ploy to get a bidding war going...again,but I do believe he would rather be in SoCal than Philly.

ESPECIALLY now that we've added Machado.

Payroll would go to $148.....which would put us square in the middle of MLB.

Yes Myers goes up next year but expiring deals on guys like Gyorko and Hughes almost balance that out.

Pipe dream?

Yes....of course!

But who would have thought we would have won the bid on Machado?

 

Quote from Booster SD on February 21, 2019, 6:25 pm

Well, maybe if SD were to package a high end prospect, and 2 good mid level prospects, Hedges, and Myers then you can squint your eyes and see where it might be possible to sign Harper. You would have to really be sure that young SP could handle the task, because there would little to no money to sign a SP.

1. Margot/Jank

2. Tatis

3. Haper

4. Machado

5. Hosmer

6. Renfroe/Cordero

7. Mejia

8. Urias

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 21, 2019, 7:36 pm

I realize it’s ridiculous to think we would sign Harper....but I didn’t think much about our chances of signing Machado either and adding another “generational talent” who “wants” to play for us...and a LH power bat who gets on base 40% of the time would be amazing!