Quote from WindsorUK on February 18, 2019, 11:58 am

Tarheel, as an Oriole fan, is paying Machado THAT kind of money worth it, from what you've seen? Is he a DIFFERENCE maker? Obvioulsy, he'd be the best player we've had here since AGon, and then some.

With all the young talent we have coming on the mound, does Machado make us a legitimate contender?

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 18, 2019, 12:09 pm

Obviously Machado by himself does not make us a contender...as Orioles fans will attest,but with all that Hot Talent Lava on the way getting him into the lineup for the next 8 years could be the difference maker "after" the young guns begin to arrive.

Especially once the rotation rounds into form.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 18, 2019, 12:09 pm

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/harper-or-machado-going-to-the-padres-would-be-awesome/c-304106094

 

I like his take.

Would love to see Harper and/or Machado in brown for a long time!

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 18, 2019, 12:31 pm

Quote from TarheelPadre on February 18, 2019, 11:16 am

Just wanted to pipe in and say I appreciate the discussion on here the last few months.  There seems to be a thorough knowledge of payroll, prospects, and where to go from here perspectives. Being a east coast fan since 1978, I really enjoy the banter that I certainly don’t have here in Braves and Orioles country.

Keep it coming guys.....

Once the season gets going....along with the Minor League seasons,it will be "insane" in here!

lol

But seriously...nothing like actual games to talk about...and prospect performances etc.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 18, 2019, 1:25 pm

Last rumor I saw was the Padres offered $280MM to Machado ... but did not say if that was 8 years ($35MM AAV) or 9 years ($31.1MM AAV) or something completed different. If true, Machado's agent has to be in the last stages of circling back to CWS, PHIL, NYY, and the mystery team to see if he can get any movement from them to top what appears to be the best offer rumored so far.

The ultimate contracts for Machado and Harper will be "interesting" to dissect and it will take some economic / financial analysis most likely. Might get a headline report such as Machado signs for 9 years / $280MM. At that point need to really dig into the impact of upfront signing bonus, cash flow, and potentially deferred payments (e.g. some of the money comes after the 9th years ... see Bobby Bonilla). When the player gets the money does alter the true economic value. Then how to consider the structure of the full and partial no trade provisions plus the inevitable opt out (player) / opt in (team) amounts and timing. Not that we will see the competing offers but one $280MM is not the same as another $280MM ... although I would take the money either way.

A lot was made of the WASH $300MM offer to Harper but a follow-up report suggested there was a lot of deferred money dropping the economic value to closer to $280MM (sound familiar) over the 10 years. Hosmer's 8 year deal is probably only going to be a 5 year deal with his opt out coinciding with this salary dropping from $20MM/yr to $13MM/yr for the final 3 (and Boras his agent).

Odds on signing Machado his risen in my mind since it is clear they are really serious.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 18, 2019, 1:34 pm

Saw White Sox fans saying if the Padres sign Machado it would be worse than the Cubs signing him.

Because we would have Machado and Tatis on the left side of our infield for 8+ years and it would be a constant reminder of their failures.

Lol

First we take Tatis from them before they ever even get to see him swing a bat and then steal Machado out from under them!

Would be epic really....

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 18, 2019, 2:13 pm

So lets say we do sign Machado.

How much does that speed up bringing up guys like Tatis,Paddack etc.?

I know Tatis will be in AAA for a minimum of a few weeks but I would think they would prefer he stay there for a few months since he hasn't played above AA much at all.

But would signing Machado make any difference in this decision for 2019 or does it all really start next year?

Also,do we think we would immediately go after more pitching or again do we hold pat till next season?

I do know a signing like this would certainly change things around here.....but my guess is we would roll with what we have this year and see how the rotation shakes out and make any decisions for the future AM(after Machado) next fall.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 18, 2019, 2:20 pm

Random thought on any of the potential contracts that would extend past 2021 (> 4 years) .... the strategy surrounding the highly likely strike in 2022.

Players (agents) may want a deal that does some front loading and minimize the 2022 pay which they would lose during the work stoppage. Clearly the owners would be biased for the opposite.

Sort of only a Machado / Harper issue now but a bigger issue as 2022 starts to fit into players contract time horizon.

For Machado / Harper the agents may argue for a larger signing bonus (cash now) and lower annual salaries. If either were making $30MM per year and a 3 month strike happens ... lose $15MM. If through bonus and cash flow strategies they can move 2022 down to $20MM they would only lose $10MM .. a "gain" of $5MM over a flat line cash flow.

Just another detail to confound and confuse.

Quote from fenn68 on February 18, 2019, 2:36 pm

For 2019 do think the "stay the course" on the prospects ... guessing that is to get ML playing time at some point for all the prospects that may impact 2020. In part to see if they have what it takes ... and if not, guide Preller as to the areas they need to supplement via trade or FA. Getting them to the ML too early (judgement call) can to a lot to slow down development rather than accelerate ... depend on the player and the front office should know each one enough to make that call.

By August should see Hedges - Hosmer - Urias - Tatis - Machado (?) - Myers - Margot - Renfroe / Reyes ... so setting a final 2-3 month evaluation process to lock down position players for the next 3 years (2020-2022).

The challenge will be SP. First half see the development of Lucchesi - Lauer - Strahm (guessing he gets a full SP shot) then work Allen - Paddack - Nix - Quantrill in over the course of the mid to 2nd half. Think all four need some AAA time and some innings control. They do have "filler" (in my mind) with Mitchell - Erlin - Perdomo - Kennedy to start the season and come in and out as needed.

Add to that see how Morejon / Baez develop in AA (maybe to AAA) and Gore / Patino / et. al in A+ to get a read on the potential for an effects SP staff in 2020-22.

Then make the call on trading for or signing FA top rung SP to solidify the staff.