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#921 · February 16, 2019, 10:31 am
Quote from Booster SD on February 16, 2019, 8:12 amFrom the spread sheet I have done using both Cotts and Baseball Reference, I have SD sitting at about $86M including dead money for guys such as Olivera, Gyorko, and others, and the money for Richards on the DL this season. I believe their high payroll was roughly $110M so they would have about $23m± to spend this year and not exceed the payroll of the 2015 team. Now there was rumor that SD could handle up to $130M payroll, and if thats the case, then they would have about $48M open/available for this season. With $48M, I think that you could land both Machado and Harper. But it would really hamstring you going forward with payroll, and not leave a lot of room for pitching adds if the young SPs dont pan out.
Booster, that's dead on with what I have: 86-87 MM including minimum salaries x 14 as roster stands. This will creep up with guys on DL. It's so "on subject" here is MLBTR's recent speculative take:
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
At this stage in the offseason, payroll is quite low at $87.6 million. This would represent a 6.8 percent drop in payroll from 2018’s Opening Day payroll. As a reminder, 2018’s Opening Day payroll was 5.3 percent below 2016’s opening day payroll. And 2016’s Opening Day payroll was 8.4 percent below 2015’s. Add it all up and this year’s Opening Day payroll would be 19.2 percent below 2015’s high water mark. In the estimate of Forbes, the franchise’s value has increased over 29.9 percent during that time.
So is this it? Is this the new normal for the Padres, same as the old normal?
Something doesn’t add up to me. The Padres sported a payroll north of $100 million in 2015 and spent nearly $100 million in 2016 while spending about $25 million on international amateurs, all while saddled with a much more notable debt burden.
There’s a scenario in play where the organization truly doesn’t want to spend, thus keeping payroll at its current level below $90 million and saving cash for…well, I’m not sure exactly. But that doesn’t line up with recent practice. The club lacks major commitments going forward and needs a big boost with a front office and ownership group that has shown a willingness to make a splash. I bet Fowler and Seidler authorize another big swing.
Keep in mind that the numbers projected below would still be below 2015 and 2016 aggregate spending levels…and that the team sees more than $20 million in dead money drop off of its books next year.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $115 million Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $27.4 million
.... Interesting take that puts into words well my feelings; SOMEthing doesn't add up with how Pads spent in 2015 (remember, Preller was basically under a mandate to make a big splash) with debt burden then, vs how they are now with less burden & forward commitments even in a weak FA market. The payroll #'s declining are a little misleading b/c 1) they were way too high in 2015 for a non-competitive team in SD, 2) Don't account for the 10's of MM's spent in Intl market prospects.
BUT a Machado or Harper signing would move the needle significantly on fan attendance/revenue. I concur that the $ is definitely there to sign one (not both) of them. That being said, if they miss out on both, they 100% positively should NOT spend (all) this "payroll space" just to spend it.
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brent wolff
#922 · February 17, 2019, 7:11 am
At this late date the Padres could use that payroll space (if they want to) to sign Moustakas (2-3 years), Iglesias (1 year), and maybe Gio Gonzalaz (1 year) ... more importantly 2020 and beyond commitment would be only for Moustakas (and not that much) to refocus on filling other needs (e.g. #1 SP).
I have totally move off signing either Machado or Harper as the 2019 Padres even though the emotional side of my brain would like to see it. The analytical side says either would be a bad move for the longer term success of the ball club. > $30MM annually for > 7 years when you have Hosmer (4 more years > $20MM) and Myers (3 years > $20MM starting in 2020) saps the payroll from fixing the rest of the team ... > $70MM (2020-2022) going to 3 players out of maybe a $130MM budget ... very limiting.
Moreover, it is shaping up for 2019-20 being non-contending years so at least 2 years of the long deal are without payoff to the team on the field making the AAV of the productive years (if any) effectively that much more. Then just the risk of carrying a player with big money for that long and getting productivity through the entire contract is high risk (although I would expect both to have opt outs in 5 and exercise them).
Side note: I don't support the idea of the "marketing value" of either. Sure short term (e.g. 2019) would see a boost in tickets / merchandise .. but that is just one year of a long deal. However, after another non-contending year, that hype will fade and the attendance and merchandising will settle back into closer to "normal" levels.
As Machado has proven in BALT and Harper in WASH ... it takes a lot more than them to get to the World Series.
#923 · February 17, 2019, 1:20 pm
Padres sign LH reliever Aaron Loup.
Whew.......I feel better.
#924 · February 17, 2019, 2:46 pm
Moustakas re-signs with MILW .... 1 year / $10MM with mutual option for 2020.
Hechavarria signs a minor league contract with the METS (SS insurance).
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Unless Machado is on a plane to SD to announce his signing (not likely) ... not sure where the Padres go from here. Can't see any useful FA signings for 3B or any likely trade options this spring. Are they locking in on France / Garcia (L) with long shots on Vosler (L and non-roster) or Quiroz (L and non-roster)?
If Urias pulls up with any injury in ST ... 3B/SS/bench sorts out of roster players: Guerra, Garcia, France plus non-roster players: Vosler, Quiroz ... whew!
#925 · February 17, 2019, 3:25 pm
Well....we got our Loogy and Harper is about to sign with Philly.
We didn’t want Moustakas obviously (could have had for 2/16) probably but chose to go with France.
I realize 2019 is not expected to be a playoff season but I was really hoping to not go through another season like last year.
But Oh well.
Ive only been hoping for more for fifty years.
#926 · February 17, 2019, 3:52 pm
Doggone it
Moustakas would have been a great fit for the Padres
#927 · February 17, 2019, 4:39 pm
Quote from fenn68 on February 17, 2019, 2:46 pmMoustakas re-signs with MILW .... 1 year / $10MM with mutual option for 2020.
Hechavarria signs a minor league contract with the METS (SS insurance).
=====
Unless Machado is on a plane to SD to announce his signing (not likely) ... not sure where the Padres go from here. Can't see any useful FA signings for 3B or any likely trade options this spring. Are they locking in on France / Garcia (L) with long shots on Vosler (L and non-roster) or Quiroz (L and non-roster)?
If Urias pulls up with any injury in ST ... 3B/SS/bench sorts out of roster players: Guerra, Garcia, France plus non-roster players: Vosler, Quiroz ... whew!
Great.... have to cut guys to add the likes of these guys to the roster.... thrilling.
#928 · February 17, 2019, 6:07 pm
Apparently we have offered 8/$250M± for Machado and possibly more for Harper. If we are to land one of these, obviously Machado fits the need of SD more, but Harper supplies a much needed LH bat in a position of plenty players already. I dont think we trade Myers due to contract and under performance, so what can we expect to get for Renfroe and maybe Reyes?
#929 · February 17, 2019, 6:29 pm
I don’t know what to think about this
Is it good news or just more torture?
#930 · February 17, 2019, 6:35 pm
So we offered them “both” contracts.
What if they “both” say yes?