Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2019, 5:10 pm

So what if the meeting was about offering Harper a short term high $$ deal and trying to convince him to take it?

Say 4/160 and then he hits free agency again as he turns 30.

Could be possible but would that then bring other teams into play that are only afraid of the 8-10 year deal?

I think if we want him we have to pray he really wants to play in SoCal.

 

Quote from Booster SD on February 2, 2019, 5:21 pm

Quote from David Nevin on February 2, 2019, 5:10 pm

So what if the meeting was about offering Harper a short term high $$ deal and trying to convince him to take it?

Say 4/160 and then he hits free agency again as he turns 30.

Could be possible but would that then bring other teams into play that are only afraid of the 8-10 year deal?

I think if we want him we have to pray he really wants to play in SoCal.

 

IMO, if he was willing to take a deal like that he would already be a LAD. The ONLY way SD gets Harper is by offering the long term deal that he is looking to get. It needs to be a record setting deal as well IMO. Thats why staggering the 9 year/$340M deal so it could not only be one of the longer deals, the highest overall (Stantons 325), and at least one year at $50M per year so it is the highest one year deal as well (Strasburg $45M for 2023)

Quote from Mike Turner on February 2, 2019, 6:29 pm

I think this whole thing with Harper is probably more about pressing the issue on Machado to decide.  Machado makes much more sense from a need standpoint.  Harper has gap power to right center (doesn't play well in Petco), plays a corner OF position (don't need), and then just forces us to trade one of Renfroe, Myers, Reyes and lessen the return due to the necessity to facilitate a trade to clear the roster space and OF logjam.  Guess we'll see though... trying to be optimistic but can't see us outbidding the large market teams for either of them.  Happy to see us in the discussion though.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 2, 2019, 6:43 pm

Glad to see you join in Michael.

I would have to disagree on one of your points though......I wouldn’t call what Harper has “gap power”.

Also,while we don’t ‘need” corner outfielders you don’t not sign a guy like Harper because you have Hunter Renfroe and Frnmil Reyes.

If we signed Harper AJ would clear that logjam somehow.....hopefully while landing a Starter or a Thirdbaseman.

 

Quote from Mike Turner on February 2, 2019, 7:21 pm

Yea I probably shouldn't have classified it as gap power.  However, of the 34 home runs last year, around 15 of them were center / right center.  I'm sure Preller has his 'road maps' of, if I sign Machado we'll do these next moves, if I sign Harper we'll do these next moves, if I sign neither we'll go this route, etc... Machado just slides right into an actual position of need and I'm just typically not that agreeable to drop hard coin on a corner OF.  Next year is going to be a big year for the likes of Paddack, Quantrill, Lucchesi, Lauer... would rather have the field figured out and just worry about getting our pitching up to the next level to start being contenders for the next five or six years hopefully.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 3, 2019, 5:04 am

My guess is we have an offer on the table for Moustakas....and he wants to come to SD.,but it is contingent on what happens with Machado/Harper.

Either way I think Moustakas is stuck waiting on what happens with Machado even if it isn’t to S.D.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2019, 6:26 am

Maybe reading too much between the lines but looking more as though Machado is NOT likely to end up a Padre. Recent rumors have the Padres favoring Harper coupled with Machado's clear desire to play on the East Coast and as a SS. Not sure that Machado's camp not setting up a meeting with SD is helping all that much suggesting HIS lack of interest or attitude toward options. Not sure outbidding PHIL / CWS (and maybe MIAMI) for someone who does not want to be in SD makes strategic sense (too much a gamble on attitude change).

On the other hand, Harper maybe be getting the bigger push. Interesting the Sieder comments of looking at Harper as an "investment" and "marketing opportunity" beyond his on-field play. If that is their thinking .... and that makes sense to justify laying out big money ... suggests that a LONG TERM deal is their strategy to get maximum investment return and establish a "face of the franchise" marketing plan.

Since it appears Harper prefers the West Coast and, as one reporter suggested, prefers a more benign media market (SD is that) he may be more amenable to a creative deal (still mega money).

We are seeing a limited market (and probably not going to change in the future) at his price maybe the though of a second FA period is not the best strategy. Given Seider's comments about "an investment" might it be that the Padres zig when all others zag (low balling probably on shorter term deals).

What if the Padres offer long term (still record level money overall) and give Harper security for his career? Maybe go 10-14 years ... maybe start around $25MM and move to $45MM at the end (AAV $35MM). BIG gamble for SD but maybe the best chance to sign him ... but they really have to like him. (keep in mind that inflation and escalating salaries will make $45MM at the end seem a lot less in today's dollars).

Quote from dusty on February 3, 2019, 6:48 am

Anyone have a guess at when the first domino falls? Is the domino Harper, Machado, or even Realmuto? I think we can all agree that Moustakas’ deal hinges on Machado and Harper. At this point I really think the Padres are possibly looking at a mass overhaul on their roster WITHOUT unloading the the farm too much. It will feel a lot like 2015 except obviously the farm, for the most part, being in tact.

1) I think the Padres make the move for Harper which starts the flurry of moves.

2) Moustakas - still will need a 3B and a 2-3 year deal fits the bill to be the man until Potts is ready.

3) Gio Gonzalez - Padres still need a pitcher to help the rotation, Gio will eat innings, and Padres and Boras seem to have developed a good relationship.

4) Realmuto - I really think Padres will push to make this deal if they get Harper or if they have a strong belief they will sign him or if the Marlins push to complete the deal soon. The roster is very very full. And the Padres have the ability to unload MLB ready or close to MLB talent that will help out the Marlins more than any other team. Also, this deal, more than any other IMO needs to get done before pitchers and catchers report.

The added benefit in making these deals this season as opposed to the deals in 2015, is that the Padres don’t have to come out and win a division or title this season. They can have a little bit of patience knowing that the pitching can still develop another year and come next year. They will have a crowded rotation with Lamet, Richards and Gonzalez all healthy and in the rotation and the first wave of pitching prospects coming in to play and yet another roster crunch and further deals being made.

Quote from LynchMob on February 3, 2019, 6:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2019, 6:26 am

(keep in mind that inflation and escalating salaries will make $45MM at the end seem a lot less in today's dollars).

I understand the concept that this statement is based upon ... but, for example, Pujols' salary doesn't "seem a lot less in today's dollars" ... and I think that's a significant factor in how/why the Angels are not a contender!

Padres are poised to win with depth ... the biggest mistake so far has been the big/long contracts for Myers and Hosmer ...