Quote from Booster SD on January 31, 2019, 7:58 pm

They say we are in the top four, and that the teams that are on the outside looking in are ones offering a shorter term contract. So I would say that we need to offer something in the 8-10 year range. With that said, I also believe that it needs to exceed Stanton dollar amount. And if they can make it exceed for one year the Strasburg potential $45M for one year. I also think SD needs some room this year and next for the last of the dead dollars to drop off and 3B this year.

So lets say SD offers 9 years and $340M.

2019 - $25M. 2020 - $27.5M. 2021 - $30M. 2022 - $32.5M. 2023 - $50M. 2024 - $47.5M. 2025 - $45M. 2026 - $42.5M. 2027 - $40M. Give him opt outs after year four, five, and seven. This gives him the highest contract, highest AAV, and the highest single year. And should allow for SD to sign Moose, and then go OF trading.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 6:27 am

That should get it done. I would tweek it a bit since I doubt they can deal Myers and his full contract (which is the key) .. so they move Renfroe and Reyes who can probably yield a better return to fill out the roster. I see three breakpoints to navigate .... 1) after 2020 there will be a $20MM drop for Richards, Kinsler, and some dead money; 2) after 2022 there will be another $30MM drop from Myers dropped and Hosmer's contract dropping to $13MM (maybe down $40MM if Hosmer opts out); 3) after 2024 there should be a major upward pressure from Arbitration / FA / impending FA of the prospects including Tatis, Urias, et. al.

So if they have to go high to get this done would look at:

20-20-40-40-50-50-50-30-30 = 330. If setting up a winning scenario for Harper he allows the Padres to supplement the roster early ... take his big money when there is the least pressure on the Padres payroll which also avoids pushing out the money too far ... ease off in the last years to allow the Padres to keep the Tatis types and stay competitive.

Do agree a series of opt outs plus no-trade provisions. Will be creative to be sure. Would not rule out the inclusion of some long term deferral (think Bobby Bonilla) where the contract is 9 years but the payments go 20 years .... cash flow management might work for both sides.

Not holding my breath but as they say ... there is a chance.

PS: as of this a.m. apparently Machado (his camp) have not agreed to a meeting with the Padres ... not an encouraging sign of his interest in SD.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2019, 6:34 am

Booster...  as I always say "not my $", but think the Pads are "in" to the extent they are on Harper BECAUSE he's not going to get stratospheric $ like that.   Who's going to opt out of years where they're going to make 50 MM back to back?

Even if you project contending Pads payroll to 150 MM, 1/3 of all payroll to one guy who will be 30+ at that point?  Is it even possible for an OF to deliver "excess value" on this deal?

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 7:55 am

I doubt either Harper or Machado will deliver stat based "excess value" based on what could be expected as a contract from any team. Hard to factor in the secondary value in marketing and (hopefully) contributing the key piece to a playoff team.

Padres do have a problem if they plan to build a contender over the next few years. Yes they have prospects coming but they are dominated by pitchers. Other than Tatis who could be elite ... Mejia / Urias are more likely strong ML players but not elite .... and then it appears a large void of impact bats arriving in the next 4 years. (sure can dream on the non-Top 100 types blossoming but long-shots). This team is at or near the bottom hitting wise with this crop.

So, adding an "elite" hitter should be the target ... how much to pay and what are (will be) the alternatives factors in. Need more than one or two impact bats to really contend.  MAYBE they can trade excess pitching for an elite bat ... MAYBE they can find a FA (for less money) that is an elite bat ... MAYBE the strike gold and one of the prospects develops.

The advantage of Harper / Machado are they are real and current ... signing either cuts back the MAYBEs .... so an aggressive pursuit makes sense IF winning in the next 4 years is an objective. Still boils down to money.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 8:24 am

Again Preller is "interested":

The Padres have been connected to a number of high-profile names over the past week — Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi now adds that they’re also considering free-agent lefty Gio Gonzalez. The Mets, too, have maintained contact with Scott Boras regarding Gonzalez, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Maybe the mega deal and the Padres sign Harper - Moustakas - Gonzalez ... all Boras clients ... in one blockbuster announcement? No? Maybe I need to go back on my meds.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 1, 2019, 10:40 am

Been telling myself not to get my hopes up but with every day that goes by without one of the big moves happening I have resigned myself to being very disappointed if we don’t end up with Harper,Machado or Realmuto.

Originally I would have preferred Moustakas and maybe another starter(Gio).

Now I want more!

Damn you AJ Preller!

 

Quote from Booster SD on February 1, 2019, 12:11 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 1, 2019, 6:34 am

Booster...  as I always say "not my $", but think the Pads are "in" to the extent they are on Harper BECAUSE he's not going to get stratospheric $ like that.   Who's going to opt out of years where they're going to make 50 MM back to back?

Even if you project contending Pads payroll to 150 MM, 1/3 of all payroll to one guy who will be 30+ at that point?  Is it even possible for an OF to deliver "excess value" on this deal?

By 2022 there will be the DH in the NL and Harper can slide right into the DH role for SD.

Quote from Booster SD on February 1, 2019, 12:13 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 8:24 am

Again Preller is "interested":

The Padres have been connected to a number of high-profile names over the past week — Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi now adds that they’re also considering free-agent lefty Gio Gonzalez. The Mets, too, have maintained contact with Scott Boras regarding Gonzalez, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Maybe the mega deal and the Padres sign Harper - Moustakas - Gonzalez ... all Boras clients ... in one blockbuster announcement? No? Maybe I need to go back on my meds.

Keep mixing the "Kool Aid", we will all drink it with you! 😛

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2019, 3:02 pm

Heard a national reporter who apparently worked the East Coast and was familiar with Harper and his personality.

Thought SD is a very good spot for Harper (of course money is all important) but in his opinion Harper really does not like the aggressive / hostile media and having to field the daily assaults. Does not think NY, Phil, LA would be good fits. Even Washington in his mind is iffy.

Yes, money is the #1 issue, but if the Padres put up any offer that is "competitive" ... they may have the intangibles to make his life for the next decade more livable for him and his wife and then tip the scales to go with the hot talent lava creating a winner in his era.

Always grasping at straws.