Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2019, 8:47 am

Since the Padres need a 3B and they seem "interested" in Machado and Moustakas and I expect some other team at the last possible moment kick in a high offer that knocks the Padres out of the bidding ... trying to "size" what it would take to sign Moustakas.

Background: keep in mind that Boras is his agent and he is never in a hurry to sign his player and wants to preserve his ego. Consider last winter, Moustakas came out after an excellent cycle with KC but encumbered by the signing team losing a draft pick. Still the most thought with his stats and age he would be worth about $45MM/3 years. Unfortunately for him, the demand for 3B was very low and even the teams that might like him as an upgrade saw using that money in other spots. At end, settles back at KC for a low $5.5MM. Boras embarrassed.

This winter Moustakas is out again but without a draft pick attached and he did still kick out a 2.5 WAR last season while helping MILW make the playoffs. Good stats and some plus with being a contributor to winners in KC and MILW should be a good selling point. Boras will want to recoup some lost money from last winter (and some reputation) so would guess the "ask" is closer to that $45MM/3 years (maybe more) than MLBTradeRumors estimate of $16MM/2 years. The result may be somewhere in-between.

Unfortunately for Moustakas, the 3B market is still not that big for someone like him (at his price). Sure a lot of teams may surface if he drops again to a low dollar one year deal but for now only 3 teams seem to be leading destinations.

1. PHIL (if they don't sign Machado) ... apparently the PHILS don't like Franco and would try to dump him in favor of Moustakas .. they have the money to go high ... likely the key to getting Boras to move on a deal

2. SD (if they don't sign Machado) ... the one team with the glaring need ... has the money for a Moustakas type contract ... fits a 2-3 year void ... good relationship with Hosmer and apparently a good team player to help the young guys

3. MILW .... third because they can return Shaw to 3B (his best position) and have some fill at 2B ... limited money to deploy and have arguably a much bigger need in pitching ... offense is OK.

The short run question for Preller is he out on Machado (needs to make that call sooner than later and as far as I know he has not gotten the audience with him) then determine his max for offer for Moustakas and get that to Boras to try to get the deal before PHIL is settled on his strategy.

$30MM/3 years?

Quote from LynchMob on January 31, 2019, 8:48 am

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25851786/keith-law-2019-top-prospects-nos-50-1

I love the intro (which is free) to this article (which is behind paywall) ... I like what the Padres have been doing since 2015 ... I'm looking forward to 2020 ... and beyond!

• • Keith LawESPN Senior Writer
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  If you're not going for it in today's MLB environment, you're -- well, let's not say "tanking" and instead go with "developing." Teams that build from their farm system through the draft, the international market and trades of veterans for prospects keep reaching and winning the World Series.

  The Kansas City Royals had the No. 1 farm system in baseball in 2011 and won two pennants, including a World Series championship in 2015. The Chicago Cubs hit the top five in 2013, ranked No. 1 in 2015 and won the World Series in 2016. The Houston Astros had the No. 1 farm system in baseball in 2014 and won their first title in 2017. The Boston Red Sox just won a World Series with homegrown former top-100 prospects at all three outfield spots, third base and shortstop and used three other top-100 prospects to trade for Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel.

  I don't think any of this is a big coincidence: Teams can't buy championships. They can buy a player or two to finish off a good roster, but the bulk of a pennant-winning roster comes from within, either through cheaper players the team developed from its farm system or veterans acquired by trading such prospects. Winning the farm system rankings can feel a bit like winning the offseason. It doesn't guarantee success -- now or in the long run -- but it's better to start with a whole boatload of young talent in your organization when you're building toward a championship run.

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2019, 8:55 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 31, 2019, 8:45 am

Wow......so I just heard that the Padres are having a face to face meeting in Las Vegas with...........Bryce Harper?

Obviously another long shot but you don’t hold that meeting if your Harper and his agent unless the Padres have made it known they are willing to pony up $250 mil or more.

 

Well this is Preller ... he does not sleep and does his due diligence on everyone, so would not get too excited about the possibility.

Preller apparently has a good relationship with Boras (Harper's agent) so Boras also benefits from the illusion that the Padres are 'interested" in Harper getting the others moving from their offers. The Padres "interest" in Machado and Realmuto adds just enough credibility that the Padres are willing to do something big ... so maybe on a West Coast super-star who would like a West Coast destination over PHIL/WASH/CWS.

Can Harper play 3B?

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2019, 9:11 am

OK the dream scenario (or is it a nightmare).

Padres sign Harper to a very complicated contract with no-trade / opt outs at an initial AAV of $30MM. Then,

Padres trade for Realmuto sending Mejia, Renfroe, L.Allen ... then sign him to an extension (3 years)

Padres sign Moustakas $30MM/3 years (also a Boras client)

Then free wheel by dealing Hedges, Reyes, Cordero, as needed for prospects (hopefully a near term CF/OF).

Should get it done by next Thursday.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2019, 10:42 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2019, 8:55 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 31, 2019, 8:45 am

Wow......so I just heard that the Padres are having a face to face meeting in Las Vegas with...........Bryce Harper?

Obviously another long shot but you don’t hold that meeting if your Harper and his agent unless the Padres have made it known they are willing to pony up $250 mil or more.

 

Well this is Preller ... he does not sleep and does his due diligence on everyone, so would not get too excited about the possibility.

Preller apparently has a good relationship with Boras (Harper's agent) so Boras also benefits from the illusion that the Padres are 'interested" in Harper getting the others moving from their offers. The Padres "interest" in Machado and Realmuto adds just enough credibility that the Padres are willing to do something big ... so maybe on a West Coast super-star who would like a West Coast destination over PHIL/WASH/CWS.

Can Harper play 3B?

I think it's more interesting that this interest in Harper(and Machado really) has all seemed to materialize in the last week or so.

I'm sure the last few months has been....."sure we'd love to have them but can't go 10/$350

Now,with both still available and the cost "apparently" more in the 7/$225 AJ can't help but at least inquire.

Becoming real interesting.

Personally i would much prefer Machado for many reasons.....but Bryce Harper in Padre brown!?

I know one thing...I wish these two would sign "somewhere" already so everyone can move on.

Phillies seem to be the team holding everything up.

They announced they were willing to spend "crazy money" and to this point haven't.

So guys like Moustakas and teams like the Padres are in limbo.

 

Quote from Booster SD on January 31, 2019, 11:12 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 31, 2019, 9:11 am

OK the dream scenario (or is it a nightmare).

Padres sign Harper to a very complicated contract with no-trade / opt outs at an initial AAV of $30MM. Then,

Padres trade for Realmuto sending Mejia, Renfroe, L.Allen ... then sign him to an extension (3 years)

Padres sign Moustakas $30MM/3 years (also a Boras client)

Then free wheel by dealing Hedges, Reyes, Cordero, as needed for prospects (hopefully a near term CF/OF).

Should get it done by next Thursday.

Although I am not the biggest Harper fan, gotta think an OF of Myers/Margot-Jank/Harper would have a lot of teams jealous. Then an INF of Moose/Tatis/Urias/Hosmer and JTR at C, we would have a legit batting line up at that time. Those young pitchers better come quick, or hope you can outscore everyone at a 7-5 clip per game.

1. Urias

2. Harper

3. JTR

4. Moose

5. Myers

6. Hosmer

7. Tatis

8. Margot/Jank

Quote from TatisJr on January 31, 2019, 12:51 pm

Fenn, I love your idea on Pads/JTR trade. Mejia/Renfroe/Allen seems fair for both sides.

I’ve been skeptical of the Padres interest in Harper, Machado, but with the Bryce meeting today it’s starting to feel real. Preller did make that “seize the day” comment this offseason. These last two bizarre offseasons, the surprisingly small group in the Machado, Harper sweepstakes, the brilliant state of the Pads farm combined with the Acee article backlash might just end up being the perfect storm for Fowler to pony up for a superstar. I’m trying to temper my excitement and I still feel we are a real long shot, but this feels like we are actually real players in this derby.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 31, 2019, 2:44 pm

The thing is ..reports are saying Ownership + AJP meeting with Harper today and tomorrow ..Harper preferred geographically speaking is San Diego..his Family is from there..he lives near in Vegas..he got married in La Jolla.. With LAD out (Pollock).. And only Phillie and WhiteSox ...+ maybe Nate..he might take a little less for location and club direction ..plus here he is THE MAN.. He shares that light elsewhere... 8/245.. Sign the deal young men..

 

Follow that up by shiping a couple or 3 of our OFers out..+ some prospects and end up with Senzel + JT R...plus Stroman SP and say a Leaks and t hat is one he'll of an offseason

 

Senzel (for Kluber after we trade for him)

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 31, 2019, 4:02 pm

While I certainly would prefer Machado if he’s not interested then by all means Harper would be a great get.

He does have the advantage of being a more recognizable figure and more marketable than Machado.

He would make the Padres much more relevant all by himself....on AND off the field.

We haven’t had an impact “Star” in quite some time.

When I see publications doing their Top 10 by position and I realize we don’t have a single player,with the possible exception of a Hedges......who would make a top 10 list at his position it’s pretty disheartening.

Starting 2019 with Harper and Relmuto would make the entire season.....and the next few,much more interesting.

Although I’m so ready for baseball to start again we could bring back Tad Iguchi  to man 2b and I’d still be excited.