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#771 · January 30, 2019, 7:36 am
If Rosenthal/Lin’s reporting is correct and MIA wants Mejia, Morejon and Margot, I wouldn’t pull the trigger on that deal. That’s too steep of an asking price.Quote from sportwarrior on January 28, 2019, 6:34 pmHonestly, if we can sign Realmuto to an extension, I probably do that deal. The only guy I'd really hesitate on would be Morejon, and even there I'm not entirely sold on him.
I'd also consider either Renfroe or Margot, but would absolutely riot if Reyes was included.
I'd do this deal in a second IF there was 100% certainty of an extension being signed. Push for a "50" grade low level prospect back from MIA, (they have a lot of them). Realmuto > Mejia. Could look at price being Morejon & Margot. But the real ace in hole for Pads is that if they do this trade, even with Mejia gone, it seems extremely likely that they would trade unhappy Hedges for whatever they could get, which would backfill some of the prospect loss... trading 2 good C's for 1 great C. "Net" cost to Pads is lower than for other teams chasing him, because they don't have 2 C's being bumped.
But for 2 years including 1 non-contending, even with some draft pick/s back if Realmuto leaves as FA, this price makes no sense.
#772 · January 30, 2019, 7:43 am
Quote from fenn68 on January 26, 2019, 10:55 amTODAY: The Marlins aren’t allowing teams to discuss an extension with Realmuto, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter link). This would certainly seem to be an obstacle for the Padres, given Morosi’s earlier news. Beyond the Padres and Dodgers, Frisaro also lists the Rays, Reds, Braves, and Astros as suitors in the Realmuto sweepstakes, and it’s still “hard to handicap who has [the] inside edge” at this point.
Why? how does that benefit the Marlins since they would have more suitors and should get a better return if a team could lock down Realmuto before committing to a deal.
Answer is: Say they grant Padres this & sides can't agree to an extension. Now Pads & their offer are out. Lowers his trade value among the remaining teams. If the only 2-3 teams in running were in Pads situation (not contending in 2019), they might allow it...
... I was thinking that maybe they could make a weird arrangement where if Pads (for example) can't negotiate an extension in 72 hours or whatever, Miami still gets something from Pads; 1 minor prospect or something. Pads would lose something for nothing, would motivate them even more to do the extension... but I don't know if the league would allow something like this.
#773 · January 30, 2019, 8:26 am
Listened to a Miami reporter this a.m. Apparently Miami is still not granting any team the window to negotiate an extension (no idea why). Additionally he said that Miami does not think Mejia will be a ML catcher (love his bat though) and they need to get a ML capable catcher in return since they have no near term catching prospect in their system. I guess the Padres could try to use Hedges (low cost / 4 years control) as part of the deal.
Would like to upgrade catching with Realmuto but without a locked in extension BEFORE the deal ... Miami would have to really drop its ask. 2 years of Realmuto with little chance of contending at the cost of top prospects is not the enticing.
I guess two other considerations: 1) Miami apparently is OK with dragging this on into the season (although the reporter thinks something will get done sooner; 2) IF they hold to the no extension discussion for buyers ... could see teams such as LAD, HOUSTON appear as contenders who may be willing to pay a premium for winning in the next two season.
I guess there is a bit of a gamble that can be played by the Padres ... make the deal at the premium cost and then go all out to get Realmuto on an extension. Sort of depends on what under the table information is floating around on Realmuto's commitment to hitting FA and the Padres' view of what they have to give up.
#774 · January 30, 2019, 8:35 am
Why should Miami grant the time to negotiate an extension & risk deal falling through if they don't have to? Team willing to make the "big deal" without it (contending next 2 years, JTR puts them over the top) most likely to get him. Those teams of course might want to extend him, but don't "need" to --like Pads do --to justify the cost due to non-contention in 2019.... without the ability to back out of a trade, JTR could ask Preller/Pads for the moon & they would have to pay to justify the trade cost. Preller should be willing to make the best offer, but NOT back off the demand of time to get an extension... lose all leverage/too risky.
... anyone else around here getting SICK and freaking tired of non-contention and its effects on who we can/can't pursue 🙁
#775 · January 30, 2019, 8:39 am
Just to set a level on what Realmuto is about:
2018 at age 27: 531 PA .... 126 wRC+ ... 7.9 dWAR ... 4.8 WAR ... 2 years control ($5.9MM / $10MM est. arb)
......... for catchers > 300 PA Realmuto was #2 in wRC+, #12 in dWAR, and #1 in WAR
To compare with Hedges:
2018 at age 26: 326 PA ... 90 wRC+ .... 5.1 dWAR ... 1.0 WAR ... 4 years control ($2.1MM - arb - arb - arb)
........... Hedges was #17 in wRC+, #19 in dWAR, #19 in WAR
========
Since the Padres control over Hosmer and Myers extend through 2022 ... a period they need to contend ... the Realmuto extension would have to be a minimum of 2 years (ages 30/31) but more likely 3 or 4 years to get him signed. Ages 32/33 for a catcher is getting risky. A lot of parts to consider.
#776 · January 30, 2019, 8:57 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2019, 8:35 amWhy should Miami grant the time to negotiate an extension & risk deal falling through if they don't have to? Team willing to make the "big deal" without it (contending next 2 years, JTR puts them over the top) most likely to get him. Those teams of course might want to extend him, but don't "need" to --like Pads do --to justify the cost due to non-contention in 2019.... without the ability to back out of a trade, JTR could ask Preller/Pads for the moon & they would have to pay to justify the trade cost. Preller should be willing to make the best offer, but NOT back off the demand of time to get an extension... lose all leverage/too risky.
... anyone else around here getting SICK and freaking tired of non-contention and its effects on who we can/can't pursue
Not sure why one deal (e.g. Padres) falling through in the 72 hour window in late January would necessarily stop the other teams from offering what they were offering before ... which is apparently not to Miami's liking now.
They need to hype the competition to get the price up ... even from the contenders who don't seem to be all that interested to pay near Miami's demands. Maybe that is part of Miami's problem ... they want LAD / Houston in the bidding and can't get them engaged anywhere their price tag.
Maybe all the GM seem to think Miami is over a barrel and HAS to deal Realmuto to get any value and ... as good as Realmuto is ... not THAT needed by any club so everyone just waits on Miami giving him away.
With the Padres #1 farm system ... Padres should be in the best position to over pay for Realmuto (compared to any of the other suitors) ... not sure how Miami benefits from up a barrier to the Padres' pursuit?
#777 · January 30, 2019, 9:05 am
Not sure why one deal (e.g. Padres) falling through in the 72 hour window in late January would necessarily stop the other teams from offering what they were offering before...
Because they would no longer be competing against that winning offer. If Pads one of only 3-4 teams in & fall out, not a stretch to imagine other teams all pulling back significantly on their offers: they could "use" the fact that JTR wouldn't extend with 1 team to infer that he won't with any. Whether or not this is true wouldn't matter; teams could use it to their negotiating advantage, b/c implicit in their willingness to trade for JTR is the possibility of extending him.
Not saying this would happen, but it could, so I understand Miami's stance here.
#778 · January 30, 2019, 10:39 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2019, 9:05 amNot sure why one deal (e.g. Padres) falling through in the 72 hour window in late January would necessarily stop the other teams from offering what they were offering before...
Because they would no longer be competing against that winning offer. If Pads one of only 3-4 teams in & fall out, not a stretch to imagine other teams all pulling back significantly on their offers: they could "use" the fact that JTR wouldn't extend with 1 team to infer that he won't with any. Whether or not this is true wouldn't matter; teams could use it to their negotiating advantage, b/c implicit in their willingness to trade for JTR is the possibility of extending him.
Not saying this would happen, but it could, so I understand Miami's stance here.
Trying to understand Miami's logic is impossible. They have had Realmuto on the market since last year ... been fielding offers (and rejecting them) ... if they keep waiting, his value (return) logically falls with less value if they wait into 2019 (hard to add a major catcher mid-season and get the coordination with the pitching staff plus 1+ years is less than 2 years of value) and wait to next winter when 1 year is even less value and probably less likely they can convince him into an extension when so close to FA. Delay also is a risk to Miami if he gets injured or just regresses.
At some point they need to just take the best on the table before ST. Asking LAD for Bellinger plus prospects or Atlanta for Albies plus prospects or Houston Tucker or Whitley plus prospects is clearly not working.
Maybe we should be think what makes sense for the Padres to give for 2 years of Realmuto and the chance of getting him extended. That MAY still be more than what the others will offer ... again hard to know what players Miami values (likely some differently than we believe).
#779 · January 30, 2019, 11:17 am
Miami is hurt in the ego.....they had a fire sale and the fans blew them up. They tried to extend Realmuto and he said not only no but hell no. Realmuto sees what Grandal got or even turned down and he has zero interest in an extension so.....you either give Miami the moon so they can save face with the fans as try to plan for the future or you try to get Realmuto on his 2 years left and roll the dice and over pay.
Realmuto for 2 yrs versus all of the above named players under club control for way more than 2 yrs and Realmuto doesn't move the needle in his 2 years here
#780 · January 30, 2019, 5:51 pm
If you really need a good laugh go over to marlinsbaseball.com and see what the fans over there think about any trade involving JT Realmuto