Quote from TatisJr on January 29, 2019, 2:34 pm

If you aren’t willing to give Harper or Machado long term big money, then you are saying no player in baseball deserves long term big money. They are hands down two of the best players in the game. Is Mike Trout the only player worthy of a long  term big contract? Harper and Machado are ELITE. I saw one stat that said since 1980 Manny and Bryce were top 11 in cumulative fWar for players 25 and younger. Anyone one who has watched them play knows they are elite players. Fenn, I’m sorry, but it’s a joke to compare Heyward to Machado. There were plenty of questions about Heywards bat. He was extremely streaky and had a long swing. He was one time all star.  Manny is a 4 time all star with multiple Gold Gloves and he rakes year in an year out. There are zero questions about Mannys defense, bat or athleticism. People who knock Machado say he doesn’t hustle or has a bad attitude. Those are the knocks on him. Well you don’t CONSISTENTLY put up the kind of numbers Machado does without putting in the work. I also believe in the makeup of players AJP has in the organization. If you think Machado will ruin Urias or Tatis Jr then you must not think very highly of them. Both seem like dedicated young ballplayers. Machado would actually take a lot of pressure off of the kids which I think would really help their development and adjustment to the bigs. To knock Machado for Baltimore not winning is beyond crazy. Look at those teams. They were terrible. That would be like knocking Tony Gwynn or Hoffman for playing on crappy Padres teams. Machado is 26, entering his prime and is definitely deserving of a mega deal.

Quote from TatisJr on January 29, 2019, 2:39 pm

A 3,4,5 of Machado, Hosmer and Myers would alleviate a lot of pressure on Urias and Tatis Jr to be offensive producers right out of the gate.

In regards to JTR, I wouldn’t mind the deal if he was locked up long term and we gave up two of those rumored 3( Mejia, Morejon, Margot) Giving up all 3 and not getting a JTR commitment would seem crazy as hell to me.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 3:38 pm

Not comparing Machado to any specific player .... the point is that there has been a long string of players who at the time of signing long-term big money contracts were thought to be great .... and then were not really worth the contract. 7-8-9-10 year deals are just too high a risk to justify any major money commitment.

Used Heyward because the point was that Machado and Harper are young. For those who recall the same media types that are extolling the greatness of Machado and Harper were extolling the greatness of Heyward ... who was in 2016 was 25 coming off consecutive seasons of 5.8 WAR (2014) and 6.6 WAR (2015). He signs for $184MM/8years. He shows up in Chicago and can't hit and his fielding regresses. Cubs have been trying to move him ... and cannot.

Could have used our good buddy Matt Kemp as an example. He signed a $160MM/8year deal after 2011 when he had an 8.0 WAR as an All-Star CF ... age 26. Did not work for LAD - SD - ATL - LAD (again) and now with CINN.

Looking back it is easy to say they were dumb signings ... but at the time they seemed clearly justified.

Will a long term deal with Machado or Harper turn out good or bad ... can't really conclude that from past results but the history suggests the odds are against the signing team and if the team is not big money like the LAD or Cubs being wrong is just more damaging for the future.

So, I am anti big money long term deals ... maybe max at 5 years for a 26-27 year old would work (maybe even using a higher AAV). (note if the player would take the same total contract and would be willing to spread it over 10 years vs. 5 ... maybe then).

Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 4:06 pm

With Machado, youre right the performance is there. I do question the person. Im sorry, the Johnny Hustle comments bother the S**T out of me. How hard is to run; at a sprint, in the stinking playoffs? Up to that point, I would have been all in on Machado. Those comments just rub me the wrong way, especially when he knows he's going for a record contract 45 days later.

I think it is easier to compare Harper to Heyward IMO. Except for one year, Harper is barely above average. He doesnt carry a high batting average. If you take out 2015, he averages only 24 HRs per year, he has never driven in over 100 runs, and has played in less than a 120 games in 3 out of 7 years. The only thing he is ELITE at is getting walks. I am not paying someone $300M+ for one good year and getting a lot of walks.

When it comes to JTR, I am not too worried about the extension. I of the opinion that Allen will be ready with a nice LH bat in 2 years when JTR is 30 years old and a FA. In the mean time we have the best all around catcher in the game.

When it boils down to brass tax, a team like the Padres can ill afford to budget almost 25% of there payroll on one person, even if the consensus is they are Gods gift to baseball. I am all for them spending money, but I am realistic that they are never going to spend over $135M, if that high, better off spreading the money around to multiple players.

I would rather spend $20M on Kuechel, $8M on Moose, and $7M on JTR than $30M on Machado.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 29, 2019, 4:46 pm

The bashing of Matt Kemp continues.

Matt Kemp is basically Andre Dawson before WAR was invented.

If it wasn’t for the WAR stat no one would think Matt Kemp was not earning his salary.

Dont believe me?

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/19/16792830/the-lasting-impact-of-war-on-matt-kemps-legacy

 

Quote from TatisJr on January 29, 2019, 4:53 pm

I don’t think Harper and Heyward are comparable as hitters at all. Take out Heywards only 20 plus homerun season and he averages 12 Homers a year. Barry Bonds got walked a ton. I don’t see how Harpers insane walk rate is a negative. It just means teams are afraid to pitch to him like they were Bonds.

Giving up 3 young studs for 2 years of JTR just because you think Allen will be able to take over in 2021 doesn’t seem very logical. I keep hearing 2019 isn’t going to be a competitive year so why trade 3 top young assets for essentially one year of Realmuto in the contention window? By doing that you also sell low on Margot who plays a position with no immediate long term solution. I would rather go with a Hedges/Mejia in 2019 behind the dish and still have Margot patrolling center while seeing Morejon get another year under his belt.

I totally understand you Fenn and others concerns about Machado eating up the Padres budget. That’s fair. I’m just saying as a player Machado is definitely deserving of a mega deal. I just think you wouldn’t have to really worry about the year 8-9 commitments to Machado because if he had that opt out at year 3 it’s hard to see him not producing and taking that opt out. A 3 year 100 commitment doesn’t bother me as a Pads fan in that 2019-2021 window because Urias, Tatis and the young guns will all be cheap.  The Padres have a great history of building bad ass bullpens on the cheap.  The starting staff will be young and inexpensive. I’m saying if there is a window to make such a giant commitment 2019-2021 seems like an ideal time for Padres. Keep in mind I was very much in favor of the Hosmer signing. I have egg on my face now, but I still expect Hosmer to bounce back this year and I do think he will play a huge role in bringing us a championship.

 

Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 5:00 pm

I wasnt trying to compare Harper and Heywards bat, as Heyward was never a power hitter. And Im not saying walks are a bad thing, its just that IMO thats the only thing in which Harper is elite. Plus, he has had players such as Worth, Rendon, Zimmerman, and others to provide protection. Like Ive said, just not a big Harper fan, dont think he is as fantastic as the media makes him to be.

Quote from sportwarrior on January 29, 2019, 5:43 pm

Why are we comparing Heyward to Machado? Because they were roughly the same age at the time of free agency? Is the argument that Machado has significant questions regarding his bat and that his value is largely derived from his glove? Because if not, we're talking about two entirely different players and levels of risk as far as long term deals go...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 29, 2019, 8:17 pm

Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 4:06 pm

With Machado, youre right the performance is there. I do question the person. Im sorry, the Johnny Hustle comments bother the S**T out of me. How hard is to run; at a sprint, in the stinking playoffs? Up to that point, I would have been all in on Machado. Those comments just rub me the wrong way, especially when he knows he's going for a record contract 45 days later.

I think it is easier to compare Harper to Heyward IMO. Except for one year, Harper is barely above average. He doesnt carry a high batting average. If you take out 2015, he averages only 24 HRs per year, he has never driven in over 100 runs, and has played in less than a 120 games in 3 out of 7 years. The only thing he is ELITE at is getting walks. I am not paying someone $300M+ for one good year and getting a lot of walks.

When it comes to JTR, I am not too worried about the extension. I of the opinion that Allen will be ready with a nice LH bat in 2 years when JTR is 30 years old and a FA. In the mean time we have the best all around catcher in the game.

When it boils down to brass tax, a team like the Padres can ill afford to budget almost 25% of there payroll on one person, even if the consensus is they are Gods gift to baseball. I am all for them spending money, but I am realistic that they are never going to spend over $135M, if that high, better off spreading the money around to multiple players.

I would rather spend $20M on Kuechel, $8M on Moose, and $7M on JTR than $30M on Machado.

Why not both...signing Machado ..going after JTR AND adding a SP like Stroman... Remeber Myers still cheap in 19 a ton of $$$ drops off after 2019 from payroll and assuming Renfroe..Reyes Margot Urias ..Tatis Jr.. Mejia ..Lauer ..Lucchessi..Paddack etc.on 25 man thats only like $5 mil combined for a yr or 2..or 3....then if we trade Myers (after 19 ) we can still go get a SP in FA next off-season...Stroman +Richards + our stable of arms AND a Verlander or so for 2020. Fasten them belts