Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 7:13 am

Quote from 3fingersplit on January 28, 2019, 9:05 pm

 

Quote from Booster SD on January 28, 2019, 8:21 pm

I think you under value the ability of Cobb. I dont think you realize how tremendous he would be in SD. And his contract is very reasonable, $43 over 3 years. IMO in SD and with Balsley, Cobb is a strong #2 and Luchessi IMO will never be better than a #4 and I think we all agree that Reyes is a DH in waiting.

Cobb should ask for a raise.....$43.00 is less than the Per Diem

Told you he was a bargain!! 😉

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 7:17 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 5:58 am

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-will-be-worth-the-money-these-numbers-prove-why/

 

Why we should sign Machado.

Didn't convince me at the cost / length of contract being speculated. If that were a real compelling logic ... and considering all 30 teams are "stat oriented"  ... there would be a much greater demand. Guessing the teams are including a lot of additional forecast metrics that lead to a different conclusion.

I did get put off with the throwaway thought that all teams a flush with money and that money is BEST use is to sign Machado and Harper. If any team has money ... the better use is funding a competitive 25 man roster than get one mega player that will lead the team to mediocrity (see Machado and Baltimore).

Now there is a price point for all teams that make signing the make sense ... but the length of the deal (and risk added) that may be the bigger issue. $30MM/yr probably does not give a problem to most teams BUT 10 years ... not so much (see Pujols, Cabrera, Bailey, ...).

Guessing the Padres got "interested" when the $175MM/7 years ($25MM AAV) was rumored ... but that also got a few others "interested".

Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 5:58 am

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-will-be-worth-the-money-these-numbers-prove-why/

 

Why we should sign Machado.

Its a good read and nice to see SD getting some media attention. Two questions. One, what is the true personality of Manny, and the possible affect on a young team, and is Hosmer enough of a seasoned veteran with a WS ring to keep Manny in check so to speak? Two, is Manny willing to play 3B, or does signing him require Tatis to slide to 3B? Are we a better team with Tatis at 3B and Manny at SS because of Manny's bat in the line up and the defensive hit is not enough to worry about? Or would we be a better team with Moose at 3B and Tatis at SS, and additional payroll flexibility down the road?

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 7:30 am

Given the need for SP across MLB ... and with contenders .... the fact that Kluber, Cobb, Stroman, Bumgarner, et. al. have not been traded .... just maybe the "ask" is a lot higher that we (or more importantly the Padres) would want to make. No team is paying the price.

At least with the Padres ... and ALL the rumored alternatives ... need to keep a focus on the payroll. Never heard any suggestion that the Padres will raise their payroll beyond "mid-pack" and that is somewhere in the $115-125MM range. They are at $85MMish ... so signing a Machado at $30MM likely limits and other costly adds ... plus they would want to keep a buffer to add salary as need at the trade deadline. For the Padres is may be more of selecting the better combo of alternatives but not all the potential options.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 7:37 am

Quote from Booster SD on January 29, 2019, 7:20 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 5:58 am

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-will-be-worth-the-money-these-numbers-prove-why/

 

Why we should sign Machado.

Its a good read and nice to see SD getting some media attention. Two questions. One, what is the true personality of Manny, and the possible affect on a young team, and is Hosmer enough of a seasoned veteran with a WS ring to keep Manny in check so to speak? Two, is Manny willing to play 3B, or does signing him require Tatis to slide to 3B? Are we a better team with Tatis at 3B and Manny at SS because of Manny's bat in the line up and the defensive hit is not enough to worry about? Or would we be a better team with Moose at 3B and Tatis at SS, and additional payroll flexibility down the road?

There is NO WAY Hosmer / Kinsler will impact Machado's personality. That is wishful thinking (which is dangerous). Machado is a 6 year ML veteran, a mega-star, who will get paid way more than Hosmer / Kinsler combined ... there is ZERO motivation for the high ego Machado to care one iota about what others think. Basically he knows what he has done has got him ML stardom and a bigger long term contract.

Concerning is the recognition that Machado's personality needs to be contained.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 29, 2019, 7:54 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 7:17 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 5:58 am

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-will-be-worth-the-money-these-numbers-prove-why/

 

Why we should sign Machado.

Didn't convince me at the cost / length of contract being speculated. If that were a real compelling logic ... and considering all 30 teams are "stat oriented"  ... there would be a much greater demand. Guessing the teams are including a lot of additional forecast metrics that lead to a different conclusion.

I did get put off with the throwaway thought that all teams a flush with money and that money is BEST use is to sign Machado and Harper. If any team has money ... the better use is funding a competitive 25 man roster than get one mega player that will lead the team to mediocrity (see Machado and Baltimore).

Now there is a price point for all teams that make signing the make sense ... but the length of the deal (and risk added) that may be the bigger issue. $30MM/yr probably does not give a problem to most teams BUT 10 years ... not so much (see Pujols, Cabrera, Bailey, ...).

Guessing the Padres got "interested" when the $175MM/7 years ($25MM AAV) was rumored ... but that also got a few others "interested".

I don't think either ultimately gets the 10 years but at 26 it is a "little" different than the Pujols and Cabrera deals.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 9:11 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 7:54 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 7:17 am

Quote from David Nevin on January 29, 2019, 5:58 am

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-bryce-harper-and-manny-machado-will-be-worth-the-money-these-numbers-prove-why/

 

Why we should sign Machado.

Didn't convince me at the cost / length of contract being speculated. If that were a real compelling logic ... and considering all 30 teams are "stat oriented"  ... there would be a much greater demand. Guessing the teams are including a lot of additional forecast metrics that lead to a different conclusion.

I did get put off with the throwaway thought that all teams a flush with money and that money is BEST use is to sign Machado and Harper. If any team has money ... the better use is funding a competitive 25 man roster than get one mega player that will lead the team to mediocrity (see Machado and Baltimore).

Now there is a price point for all teams that make signing the make sense ... but the length of the deal (and risk added) that may be the bigger issue. $30MM/yr probably does not give a problem to most teams BUT 10 years ... not so much (see Pujols, Cabrera, Bailey, ...).

Guessing the Padres got "interested" when the $175MM/7 years ($25MM AAV) was rumored ... but that also got a few others "interested".

I don't think either ultimately gets the 10 years but at 26 it is a "little" different than the Pujols and Cabrera deals.

 

10 years is still a lot of projection and way too much risk. Cubs are all not that enamored by the Jason Heyward signing .. long term / big money justified because he was in his mid-20s (also the ill advised value of his defense).

Lest we forget Homer Bailey and a trail of others who signed FA or extension in their mid-20s that were less than projected a few years later. More close to home ... Wil Myers, Jedd Gyroko ... yes different quality even at the signing but still the projections were wrong.

The league is full of alternative strategies ... shorter term / lower cost covering more players to build a winning team rather than all in on one long term player and then dumpster diving to fill around that player ... be it Machado or Harper or ......

Somehow Myers ($20MM) plus Hosmer ($20MM) plus Machado ($30MM) eats up $70MM of what is at best a $120MM payroll ceiling leaving only about $50MM to fill the other 22 ML roster slots .... they would have to get very lucky to have all the prospects up and producing at the ML level to be competing in 2020-2022 in order to have some money to fill the bigger remaining holes.

Still think they are a year away form making that big splash for a FA ... need to know what prospects are the better bets to succeed.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 29, 2019, 9:51 am

Completely understand the hesitation to commit.

Which is why they are still unsigned.

But,"if" we make him some crazy offer we gotta believe AJ and Ownership understand the risks and feel they can take on the

financial burden.

They want to sell more tickets and Brown jerseys also.

The casual fan may attend more games and by more merchandise if they wee them "going for it".

Certainly not $300 mil worth but it is still a factor.

What's hurting Machado and Harper is that the "big boys",who can just throw more money at a problem just aren't in the market

right now.

Bos,NYY,ChC,Stl,even the LaD just don't have the means to go that high this offseason.

Then there's teams like Az and SF who are in such rebuilds that I doubt either of these guys would want to go there to lose for the

first 2-3 years of their new deals.

I know one thing....we're only 3 weeks from Pitchers and Catchers.....somethings gotta give soon.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2019, 12:53 pm

Now hearing the Padres are "interested" in Moustakas who is getting the support of his former teammate Hosmer.

For the conspiracy theorist among us ... have the Padres been targeting Moustakas all along but with Boras as his agent nothing gets done with an unrealistic ask (what ever that may be). Not much of a market apparently again for Moustakas except at the low end or PHIL if they miss on Machado. Padres suddenly come  out "interested" in Machado ... rattles the other bidders (e.g. PHIL) to move more aggressively on Machado or tweeks Boras a bit to make a more realistic deal with the Padres for Moustakas.

MLBTradeRumors had him pegged at $16MM/2 years ..... even if the deal was marginally more that should be very good value for the Padres leaving money on the table to be more creative in filling other needs (e.g. SP).