Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2018, 4:42 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 28, 2018, 3:38 pm

The more I think about it the more I hope we sign Keuchel.

Since he doesn’t rely on a 99 mph fastball his age doesn’t affect his value much.

He’s a ground ball “finesse” pitcher which would play well in S.D.

We could keep our prospects and he would be here into the meat of our rebuild.

He could also still have trade value a couple years from now if we have enough of our own prospects to fill out the rotation.

You would think he would want to pitch in Petco/San Diego.

Apparently he’s holding out for the 5th year but a deal of 4/82 might get it done.

Is that really that much more than Kluber is gonna get when you consider the cost in prospects?

 

Kubler is an ACE TOR type CY... Keuchel is a solid #3... we need BOTH types to #Playoffs 2020... Richards (should be healthy in 2020) he is a true #2 ... so one can argue we have a TOR type already for 20... but if its Keuchel or Kubler at a reasonable (prospect cost) I say get Kubler

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2018, 4:53 pm

Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2018, 12:10 pm

Getting to about 6 weeks until ST starts ... ton of FA out there and a lot of trades not being made. January is setting up for players to start calling their agents and demanding they get on the stick and find them a job not wanting to be still out there as others sign ... result FA prices should be dropping soon (what the owners are betting on) for the mass of FA.

Hard to gauge the trickle down effect of Machado and Harper ... who just drag this on knowing they will get premium dollars at the end. However, the teams in contention for their services have to fish or cut bait ... especially if they feel they are long shots ... so that they can fill those needs via other FA or trades.

Take a team such as PHIL .... came out stating they have "stupid" money to spend and are in the hunt of Machado and/or Harper. They have the need if they want to contend in the NL East. Then, a report came out today that neither want to play in PHIL (that of course could be from their agents to boost the price from PHIL which in turn may boost the price form others). PHIL just can't sit and wait. Do they shift gears to other FA or trades (think Myers since they have money).

January should have an interesting dynamic as the teams reset strategies in the waning days before ST.

All that does make a case for Preller not rushing into any moves and waiting out the market as both a buyer and seller.

WELL its December 28 and a Boras client KILKUCHI needs to make up his mind in 5 or 6 days (I believe he has 30 Days from day posted 12/4/18 to reach a deal with a MLB club per CBA/Japan agreement ) next Wednesday 1/2/19 I believe is the deadline for him to sign with a team or go back to Japan... So maybe AJP and others are waiting for that shoe to drop 1st before embarking or taking action on the next few moves/// It does seem like AJP has a Domino puzzle working every angle and once a domino falls the rest will follow.. I expect a very active week/10 days from now until around 1/10/19 for Padres

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 28, 2018, 6:00 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on December 28, 2018, 4:42 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 28, 2018, 3:38 pm

The more I think about it the more I hope we sign Keuchel.

Since he doesn’t rely on a 99 mph fastball his age doesn’t affect his value much.

He’s a ground ball “finesse” pitcher which would play well in S.D.

We could keep our prospects and he would be here into the meat of our rebuild.

He could also still have trade value a couple years from now if we have enough of our own prospects to fill out the rotation.

You would think he would want to pitch in Petco/San Diego.

Apparently he’s holding out for the 5th year but a deal of 4/82 might get it done.

Is that really that much more than Kluber is gonna get when you consider the cost in prospects?

 

Kubler is an ACE TOR type CY... Keuchel is a solid #3... we need BOTH types to #Playoffs 2020... Richards (should be healthy in 2020) he is a true #2 ... so one can argue we have a TOR type already for 20... but if its Keuchel or Kubler at a reasonable (prospect cost) I say get Kubler

But only three years of Kluber.....plus the loss of prospects.

The first two years may be near meaningless.

Anything he does in 2019 will be wasted....possibly even 2020.

I just don’t see it.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 30, 2018, 3:33 am

What is Solarte's situation? Is he still under contract in Toronto? If so, what would it take to bring him back? He'd be a nice fit at 3rd and he's a fan favourite.

We could do worse.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2018, 6:58 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 30, 2018, 3:33 am

What is Solarte's situation? Is he still under contract in Toronto? If so, what would it take to bring him back? He'd be a nice fit at 3rd and he's a fan favourite.

We could do worse.

A FA since he was non-tendered by Toronto. With the lack of demand for 3B and his diminishing offensive skills (his stats have gone down in each of the past two years) he looks to be a guy that hangs around as a FA and signs late on a one year deal ... maybe $2MM.

Don't think Preller is in a hurry to find a 3B ... with this market probably feels he can sign a "filler" if necessary at the last minute but they may not be better than a combo of Garcia / Kinsler / France (with Urias at 2B). Good chance he is waiting out trade options ... he was reportedly interested in many (guessing the trade prices were too high) but time (and the signing of Machado) might change the demand making the cost of adding Franco or Andujar more acceptable ... and longer term / lower salary.

Four weeks from now we may still see Moustakas, Solarte, Forsythe, Cabrerra ... others still unsigned and for the 2019 Padres probably not all that critical which they sign.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2018, 10:24 am

A bit of a different profile for 3B ... one that has not come up much.

First, SD would want to stabilize 3B at least on an interim basis (2 years until Potts is a known commodity). Padres want to improve OBP (near the bottom in MLB) and defense (also poor). So, consider a trade with TB for Matt Duffy. What does Duffy (28) bring ... 2 arbitration control years (est. $2.6MM in 2019) both stabilizes 3B and does not hurt the payroll ... in 2018 had a 2.4 WAR (wRC+ 106, dWAR +4.9) / slash line of 294/361/366 (he has no power with only 4 HR) but fills the OBP and defensive upgrade.

Why would TB deal him? They just added Diaz (same profile as Duffy) and have him pencilled in at 1B leaving TB with little power in their line-up in two traditional power positions. They have clearly been in search of some VETERAN power (were linked to Cruz). They could move Diaz to 3B (with 6 years control at minimum) and open some space for 1B/DH to add the veteran power bat. Remember they won 90 games and have their eyes on the wild card (if not more).

Padres have some players that fit the need: Myers (4 years big contract) and Renfroe (5 years minimum in 2019) fit the veteran power profile (not Reyes or Cordero). TB does have some payroll flexibility so Myers is not out of the question plus Myers could go to 1B.

Duffy for Renfroe? TB adds the power they want ... lowers 2019 payroll ... adds a player with 3 more years of control ... Renfroe will have the higher OPS with his slugging offsetting the lower OBP.  Although two different profiles ... sort of balances.

Duffy for Myers? TB adds the power they want ... keep 2019 payroll about the same (Myers $3MM) ... adds 2 more years of control ... Myers' contract is a roadblock but he has the longer track record and versatility along with similar OPS as Duffy.

Aside from balancing a deal with some mid-level prospects .... the basis of a deal that helps both teams?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 30, 2018, 10:57 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2018, 6:58 am

Quote from WindsorUK on December 30, 2018, 3:33 am

What is Solarte's situation? Is he still under contract in Toronto? If so, what would it take to bring him back? He'd be a nice fit at 3rd and he's a fan favourite.

We could do worse.

A FA since he was non-tendered by Toronto. With the lack of demand for 3B and his diminishing offensive skills (his stats have gone down in each of the past two years) he looks to be a guy that hangs around as a FA and signs late on a one year deal ... maybe $2MM.

Don't think Preller is in a hurry to find a 3B ... with this market probably feels he can sign a "filler" if necessary at the last minute but they may not be better than a combo of Garcia / Kinsler / France (with Urias at 2B). Good chance he is waiting out trade options ... he was reportedly interested in many (guessing the trade prices were too high) but time (and the signing of Machado) might change the demand making the cost of adding Franco or Andujar more acceptable ... and longer term / lower salary.

Four weeks from now we may still see Moustakas, Solarte, Forsythe, Cabrerra ... others still unsigned and for the 2019 Padres probably not all that critical which they sign.

This is why I don't understand the focus on 3B; why trade assets away to fill a hole on a non-contending team?

Last year, we had to get a SS and there were simply none "acceptable" on the FA market which forced IMO the trade to get Galvis.  THIS year we need to get EITHER a 3B OR a SS, and there are multiple options at each position available as FA.

I lean heavily towards a re-sign of Galvis (on the condition that he knows his ironman streak IS going to end);  isn't his lack of offense more than offset by the defensive combo of  Urias/Galvis/Tatis-3B than Urias/Tatis-SS/?? -3B?   Feel like Tatis (& Urias) might ultimately be better defensive SS from getting to see Galvis handle the position defensively for a year or 2.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2018, 1:35 pm

I think Preller is focusing on 3B because of his projection on Tatis. No question when he arrives he is the SS ... and likely for the next 6 years paired with Urias. IF he believes that Tatis is arriving in mid-season, then adding a SS (almost at any cost) just clogs up the process and that add would end up out of position and is wasting money. Maybe if he gets to ST and finds a SS filler on a one year deal (minimal cost) and he has yet to settle on a 3B ... he might sign a SS.

As for 3B ... think he would prefer to get a long control solution (e.g. Franco, Andjuar, Senzel) and would be willing to pay a price (not overpay). Nothing against Potts' future but at best he is 2021 ... so if he develops one or the other could be flipped.

For his sake (and future employment)... the sake of the rest of the team ... the sake of the owner ... the sake of average fans ... he needs to put a competitive team (even if it is losing) that is interesting / entertaining and some combo of Kinsler - Garcia - France is not that. So, to show some effort, a Moustakas for 1 year is legit. Dealing for Duffy (2 years, cheap) ... depending on the price ... eliminates this issue for 2020.

When it all settles ... odds are that it is Moustakas on a 1 year deal for $6MM.

Quote from fenn68 on December 30, 2018, 1:59 pm

As the rumors (speculation) still are moving along it is written that Padres are still moved to pursue Sonny Gray (1 year control, $9MM, debatable 2018) IF the NYY come down on their ask. Maybe he helps the worst pitching staff in 2018 .. maybe he is flipped at the trade deadline and the Padres get equivalent players back while buying time for their own prospect to develop more in AAA.

More confounding to me is:

The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe

Either it is to flip Realmuto or trade Hedges for pitching (hopefully Preller would have that pre-set). I guess if Realmuto stays ... he becomes the bridge to Mejia taking over in 2 years plus likely they could Realmuto when the deem Mejia ready (next winter?) and recoup part of the prospects. What we don't know but might impact this is what the Padres see the future of Allen - Torrens - Campusano (their opinion not ours) giving the protection if the make a series of catcher moves.

Problem is what Miami will take for Realmuto and when will their demands drop ... at that point think Padres make be in a good position. As of now they only will consider ELITE prospects which appears to be MLB Top 10 types ML ready. Not getting any team to bit on that and the next level Top 100 from those teams don't move Miami.

Early WASH was in play ... Robles (MLB #4, AAA) was demanded ... Washington walked (only 2 other Top 100)

LAD has been linked ... Bellinger (ML roster) was demanded ... LAD just said no ... top prospect Verdugo (MLB #32, AAA) was not enough for Miami even if just leading the deal.

Houston has been in for all winter ... Tucker (MLB #5, AAA) or Whitley (MLB #8) were demanded to lead the deal ... HOU just said no ... HOU only has two more Top 100 prospects at #42 and #95 ... Miami is not moved.

So SD ... they will keep Tatis and Gore out of the discussion ... but they do have 8 more Top 100 (quality and quantity) with Mejia (#26, AAA) first up. Paddack (#35, AA/AAA) are closer to ELITE than the rest NOW. Urias (#27, AAA may become a fine ML player but without power and a 2B not likely a lot of trade value). The the options start to taper away from near term ML ready ... Morejon (#46, A+), Baez (#57, A+), Allen (#76, AAA), Patino (#83, A), Weathers (#92, A). Seems from Miami's perspective of ELITE and near term ML ready ... the lead player would have to be Mejia or Paddack .. then add some more.

Just don't see it.