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#541 · December 28, 2018, 7:01 am
Think what we are seeing in Preller is him trying to be an opportunist. Ask about everyone's availability .... check the asking price vs. what your trade chips are worth to you .... walk away if the deal does not fit ... make the deal IF the price is right. When a club just lost 96 games ... not all that sure that going all in on one or two high end pieces will make the winners but if he can get them under HIS value make the deal.
Well... I would word that as "Preller being extremely thorough", which he always is.
I feel experienced SP is a "must" need for Pads, even > 3B where options exist: Myers with full ST, Kinsler, France, platoon, sign Galvis or another SS FA & put Tatis at 3B... last year Pads had 3 sP > 100 career MLB starts (C. Richard, Ross, Jordan Lyles). This year's healthy leader is Perdomo with 59. Obviously tons of young arms team wants/needs to look at, but feels like a potential disaster waiting to happen with SO much inexperience, no one over 150 IP last year etc. Need to stabilize for at least 1 yr. You all know my preference: add to the top of the rotation, not the middle/bottom.
I think Preller is evaluating "relative" trade cost for SP with 1 (Gray), 2 (Stroman), and 3 (Kluber, Thor earlier) years control. If you look at this through the lens of "having to" make a trade since unwilling to sign comparable FA's Keuchel & Kikuchi for 40-80 MM... the cost of doing a long term deal is "RELATIVELY" lower, since "have to" give up some Asset/s anyway.
Maybe I'm just "justifying" what I want Preller to do, maybe he's just doing his due diligence, maybe just getting involved to drive costs up for LAD, but it makes sense to me.
#542 · December 28, 2018, 8:29 am
Do agree the could benefit from a veteran innings eater and COULD go back to Myers at 3B (although sounding like that is a last resort option the Padres really want to avoid).
However, since no matter who they add to the SP staff .. the team will still be a non-contender in 2019 just way too many unproven pieces in the rest of the SP and the position slots. That sort of sets me to trying to add a veteran on the cheap (leadership, innings) if that pitcher has only 1 or 2 years control. However, would do more for at least 3 years control on a top of the rotation type (e.g. Kluber, Syndergaard) since that takes them into the period of contention ... sort of the same logic in signing Hosmer. Still the price needs to be reasonable and not take away for the potential success of the 2020-2021 team ... one SP is a major building block but not going to win it by himself ... consider NYM with DeGrom - Syndergaard - Wheeler - Matz and still had a losing record.
When a team just lost 96 games coming out of a long succession of losing seasons .... with one of the worst offensive teams in MLB and one of the worst SP staffs in MLB .. we may be premature to go "all in" for 2019.
IF the Padres wait until next winter may still have the same options in Kluber, Syndergaard, Greinke plus new options including Verlander, Cole, Bumgarner, Gray (FA) on the market while having a better evaluation on their own trade chips.
#543 · December 28, 2018, 8:40 am
As it stands, I am beginning to lean toward signing Moustakas (LHH, power) on a one (maybe two) year deal as they make a further evaluation of Potts' future as the future 3B.
The FA market was not kind to Moustakas last year and it is looking like it will not be kind to him this winter (just not a lot of teams looking for 3B upgrade) so getting him low cost / short control may be a real bargain vs. dealing assets for the likes of Franco or Andjuar or whomever else is out there in a deal.
Another "long shot" advantage to waiting for a long term call at 3B until next winter .. besides knowing more about Potts .. is that Rendon and Arenado are FA and legit targets (see Hosmer) but in-turn saturate the available supply potentially making other FA or trade targets more economical.
Again, maybe this winter is premature in "overspending" to get a longer term 3B solution who will be "wasted" in 2019.
#544 · December 28, 2018, 9:03 am
As careful as Preller is being with "his" prospects you begin to wonder if signing Keuchel or kikuchi may just be
the better solution.Of course,they have to want to come to the padres but money talks and I'm sure either could be convinced.
As hard as we seem to be going after a Starter via trade you wonder if we've already been ruled out as a destination for either
of these guys?
But if not....with Keuchel you get just what we need...a healthy innings eater who would slot right in to our #1 spot and
we would have for 3-5 years....well into our "window of contention".
The same could be said for Kikuchi other than the bit of unknown of his ability to perform at the MLB level.
The only caveat to this thinking is the fact AJ may "want/need" to trade a few prospects to make room on the 40 man roster......
#545 · December 28, 2018, 10:51 am
Just some fun fodder to read on CBS sports website, 50 MLB predictions for the 2019 calendar year.
SD signs FA pitcher Dallas Keuchel.
SD is the first team that fires its manager in 2019, good bye Andy Green.
SD signs Nolan Arenado at the 2019 winter meetings.
#546 · December 28, 2018, 11:51 am
The Keuchel idea has some merit beyond he is a very good pitcher. Boras is his agent .... Boras likes the Padres (see Hosmer ... some of the top minor league prospects ... Hedges all clients) ... Boras has "influence" over his clients.
Padres do have the room to add a $20MM AAV (likely 4 years ... maybe 5 for ages 31-35).
Keuchel does tick off the checkmarks of a top of the rotation innings eater who then would be around in 2020-23 leading a young staff to contend (win). Padres went the "extra year" to secure Hosmer .... Keuchel wants 5 years the market is looking more at 4 ... so working with Boras as they did with Hosmer might get it done.
Maybe not this winter but it would also free up some of the prospects for future deals if at least one of the SP is locked down.
IT COULD HAPPEN!
#547 · December 28, 2018, 11:56 am
Don't think the 40 man is an issue this winter .... Richards and Lamet are easy puts to the 60 day DL at the end of ST if they need to add a non-roster prospect to open the season.
If they trade for a player .... more than likely a rostered player goes out in the deal ... net zero.
If they sign a FA ... depending who it is ... might find some "fringe" roster type to DFA without much angst.
Doubt any of that moves Preller to deal prospects (at least good ones).
#548 · December 28, 2018, 11:59 am
Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2018, 11:51 amThe Keuchel idea has some merit beyond he is a very good pitcher. Boras is his agent .... Boras likes the Padres (see Hosmer ... some of the top minor league prospects ... Hedges all clients) ... Boras has "influence" over his clients.
Padres do have the room to add a $20MM AAV (likely 4 years ... maybe 5 for ages 31-35).
See my post in the SP thread for my suggestion of a contract to get Keuchel into a SD uniform.
#549 · December 28, 2018, 12:10 pm
Getting to about 6 weeks until ST starts ... ton of FA out there and a lot of trades not being made. January is setting up for players to start calling their agents and demanding they get on the stick and find them a job not wanting to be still out there as others sign ... result FA prices should be dropping soon (what the owners are betting on) for the mass of FA.
Hard to gauge the trickle down effect of Machado and Harper ... who just drag this on knowing they will get premium dollars at the end. However, the teams in contention for their services have to fish or cut bait ... especially if they feel they are long shots ... so that they can fill those needs via other FA or trades.
Take a team such as PHIL .... came out stating they have "stupid" money to spend and are in the hunt of Machado and/or Harper. They have the need if they want to contend in the NL East. Then, a report came out today that neither want to play in PHIL (that of course could be from their agents to boost the price from PHIL which in turn may boost the price form others). PHIL just can't sit and wait. Do they shift gears to other FA or trades (think Myers since they have money).
January should have an interesting dynamic as the teams reset strategies in the waning days before ST.
All that does make a case for Preller not rushing into any moves and waiting out the market as both a buyer and seller.
#550 · December 28, 2018, 12:27 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 28, 2018, 12:10 pmJanuary should have an interesting dynamic as the teams reset strategies in the waning days before ST.
All that does make a case for Preller not rushing into any moves and waiting out the market as both a buyer and seller.
I agree that while we are getting frustrated/bored with nothing happening in Padre land except for rumors and the massively impressive signing of Kinsler (sarcasm font) that Preller is doing his due diligence and not overplaying his hand. Unfortunately waiting out the market is driving us mad!!